×

Misunderstood and unattributed: revisiting M. H. Doolittle’s measures of association, with a note on Bayes’ theorem. (English) Zbl 07665853

Am. Stat. 70, No. 1, 63-73 (2016); correction ibid. 70, No. 2, 225 (2016).

MSC:

62-XX Statistics
Full Text: DOI

References:

[1] Aldrich, J., Correlations Genuine and Spurious in Pearson and Yule, Statistical Science, 10, 364-376 (1995)
[2] Anderson, D. R.; Hausman, C. R., Conversations on Peirce: Reals and Ideals (2012), New York: Fordham University Press, New York
[3] Armistead, T. W., H. L. Wagner’s Unbiased Hit Rate and the Assessment of Categorical Forecasting Accuracy, Weather and Forecasting, 28, 802-814 (2013)
[4] ———, Resurrecting the Third Variable: A Critique of Pearl’s Causal Analysis of Simpson’s Paradox, The American Statistician, 68, 1-7 (2014) · Zbl 07653616
[5] ———, Reply to “Comments on H. L. Wagner”s Unbiased Hit Rate and the Assessment of Categorical Forecasting Accuracy,, Weather and Forecasting, 29, 765-769 (2014)
[6] ———, Rejoinder, The American Statistician, 68, 30-31 (2014) · Zbl 07653620
[7] Bandyoapdhyay, P. S.; Nelson, D.; Greenwood, M.; Brittan; Berwald, J., The Logic of Simpson’s Paradox, Synthese, 181, 185-208 (2011) · Zbl 1235.03008
[8] Bartlett, M. S., Contingency Table Interactions, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 2, 248-252 (1935)
[9] Beck, L.; Feldman, R. S., Enhancing Children’s Decoding of Facial Expression, Journal of Nonverbal Behavior, 13, 269-278 (1989)
[10] Bickel, P. J.; Hammel, E. A.; O’Connell, J. W., Sex Bias in Graduate Admissions: Data from Berkeley, Science, 187, 398-404 (1975)
[11] Bishop, Y. M. M.; Fienberg, S. E.; Holland, P. W., Discrete Multi-variate Analysis: Theory and Practice (1975), Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, Cambridge, MA · Zbl 0332.62039
[12] Boyd, J. C., Mathematical Tools for Demonstrating the Clinical Usefulness of Biochemical Markers, Scandinavian Journal of Clinical Laboratory Investigation, 227, 46-63 (1997)
[13] Boyko, E. J., Ruling Out or Ruling in Disease with the Most Sensitive or Specific Diagnostic Test: Short Cut or Wrong Turn?, Medical Decision Making, 14, 175-179 (1994)
[14] Bulmer, M., Francis Galton: Pioneer of Heredity and Biometry (2003), Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD
[15] Cintineo, J. L.; Pavolonis, M. J.; Sieglaff, J. M.; Lindsey, D. T., An Empirical Model for Assessing the Severe Weather Potential of Developing Convection, Weather and Forecasting, 29, 639-653 (2014)
[16] Clayton, H. H., Verification of Weather Forecasts, American Meteorological Journal, 6, 211-219 (1889)
[17] ———, Verification of Weather Forecasts, American Meteorological Journal, 8, 369-375 (1891)
[18] ———, A Method of Verifying Weather Forecasts, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 8, 144-146 (1927)
[19] ———, Rating Weather Forecasts, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 15, 279-283 (1934)
[20] Cohen, J., A Coefficient of Agreement for Nominal Scales, Educational and Psychological Measurement, 20, 37-46 (1960)
[21] Cohen, M. R.; Nagel, E., An Introduction to Logic and Scientific Method (1934), New York: Harcourt, Brace, and Co, New York · JFM 60.0845.02
[22] Curtis, G. E., Tornado Predictions and Their Verification, American Meteorological Journal, 4, 68-74 (1887)
[23] Davis, M.; Markus, K. A.; Walters, S. B., Judging the Credibility of Criminal Suspect Statements: Does the Mode of Presentation Matter?, Journal of Nonverbal Behavior, 30, 181-198 (2006)
[24] Deeks, J. J.; Altman, D. G., Diagnostic Tests 4: Likelihood Ratios, British Medical Journal, 329, 168-169 (2004)
[25] Doolittle, M. H., Method Employed in the Solution of Normal Equations and in the Adjustment of a Triangularization, Report of the Superintendent of the Coast and Geodetic Survey, Showing the Progress of the Work During the Fiscal Year Ending with June 1878, 115-120 (1878), Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office
[26] ———, The Verification of Predictions, Bulletin of the Philosophical Society of Washington, 7, 122-127 (1885)
[27] ———, Association Ratios, Bulletin of the Philosophical Society of Washington, 10, 94-96 (1888)
[28] Doswell, C. A. III; Flueck, J. A., Forecasting and Verifying in a Field Research Project: DOPLIGHT ’87, Weather and Forecasting, 4, 97-109 (1989)
[29] Doswell, C. A.; Davies-Jones, R.; Keller, D. L., On Summary Measures of Skill in Rare Event Forecasting Based on Contingency Tables, Weather and Forecasting, 5, 576-585 (1990)
[30] Dracup, J. F., Geodetic Surveys in the United States: The Beginning and the Next One Hundred Years, 1807-1940, NOAA History: A Science Odyssey (2006), Silver Spring, MD: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD
[31] Elfenbein, H. A.; Mandal, M. K.; Ambady, N.; Harizuka, S., Cross-Cultural Patterns in Emotion Recognition Highlighting Design and Analytical Techniques, Emotion, 2, 75-84 (2002)
[32] Farebrother, R. W., A Memoir of the Life of M. H. Doolittle (1986)
[33] Finley, J. P., Tornado Predictions, American Meteorological Journal, 1, 85-88 (1884)
[34] Fisher, R. A., Statistical Methods for Research Workers (1925), New York: Hafner, New York · JFM 51.0414.08
[35] Galton, F., Natural Inheritance (1889), New York: MacMillan, New York
[36] ———, Kinship and Correlation, North American Review, 150, 419-431 (1890)
[37] ———, Fingerprints (1892), London: Macmillan, London
[38] Gandin, L. S.; Murphy, A. H., Equitable Scores for Categorical Forecasts, Monthly Weather Review, 120, 361-370 (1992)
[39] Giard, R. W.; Hermans, J., The Evaluation and Interpretation of Cervical Cytology: Application of the Likelihood Ratio Concept, Cytopathology, 4, 131-137 (1983)
[40] Gilbert, G. K., Finley’s Tornado Predictions, American Meteorological Journal, 1, 166-172 (1884)
[41] Goeleven, E.; De Raedt, R.; Leyman, L.; Verschuere, B., The Karolinska Directed Emotional Faces: A Validation Study, Cognition and Emotion, 22, 1094-1118 (2008)
[42] Goodman, L. A.; Rao, C. R.; Szekely, G. J., The Analysis of Cross-Classified Data: Notes on a Century of Progress in Contingency Table Analysis, and Some Comments on its Prehistory and its Future, Statistics for the 21st Century: Methodologies for Applications of the Future, 189-231 (2000), New York: Marcel Dekker, New York · Zbl 1021.62044
[43] Goodman, L. A.; Kruskal, W. H., Measures of Association for Cross-Classifications, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 49, 732-764 (1954) · Zbl 0056.12801
[44] ———, Measures of Association for Cross-Classifications, II: Further Discussion and References, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 54, 123-163 (1959) · Zbl 0095.13101
[45] Grcar, J. F., Mathematicians of Gaussian Elimination, Notices of the American Mathematical Society, 58, 782-792 (2011) · Zbl 1227.01001
[46] Guilford, J. P., Fundamental Statistics in Psychology and Education (1950), New York: McGraw-Hill, New York · Zbl 0266.62061
[47] Guttman, L.; Horst, P., An Outline of Statistical Theory of Prediction, The Prediction of Personal Adjustment (1941), New York: Social Science Research Council, pp. 253-318, New York
[48] Hawk, S. T.; van Kleef, G. A.; Fischer, A. H.; van der Schalk, J., ‘Worth a Thousand Words’: Absolute and Relative Decoding of Non-linguistic Affect Vocalizations, Emotion, 9, 293-305 (2009)
[49] Hazen, H. A., Verification of Tornado Predictions, American Journal of Science, Series 3, 34, 127-131 (1887)
[50] ———, The Verification of Weather Forecasts, American Meteorological Journal, 8, 392-396 (1892)
[51] Heidke, P., Berechnung des Erfolges und der Güte der Windstärkvorhersagen im Sturmwarnungsdienst, Geografika Annaler, 8, 301-349 (1926) · JFM 52.0996.02
[52] Hietanen, J. K.; Lepänen, J. M.; Lehtonen, U., Perception of Emotions in the Hand Movement Quality in Finnish Sign Language, Journal of Nonverbal Behavior, 28, 53-64 (2004)
[53] Hogan, R. J.; Mason, I. B.; Jolliffe, I. T.; Stephenson, D. B., Deterministic Forecasts of Binary Events, Forecast Verification: A Practitioner’s Guide in the Atmospheric Sciences (2nd ed.), 31-59 (2012), Oxford, UK: Wiley, Oxford, UK: Blackwell, Oxford, UK: Wiley, Oxford, UK
[54] Ioannidis, J., Why Most Published Research Findings are False, PLoS Medicine, 2, e124 (2005)
[55] Jolliffe, I. T.; Stephenson, D. B., Forecast Verification: A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science (2nd ed.) (2012), Oxford, UK: Wiley, Oxford, UK: Blackwell, Oxford, UK: Wiley, Oxford, UK
[56] ———, Comments on H.L. Wagner’s “Unbiased Hit Rate and the Assessment of Categorical Forecasting Accuracy,, Weather and Forecasting, 29, 763-764 (2014)
[57] Kerlikowske, K.; Grady, D.; Barclay, J.; , Sickles, E. A., and Ernster, V., Likelihood Ratios for Modern Screening Mammography: Risk of Breast Cancer Based on Age and Mammographic Interpretation, Journal of the American Medical Association, 276, 39-43 (1996)
[58] Köppen, W., The Best Method of Testing Weather Predictions, United States Weather Bureau Bulletin, 11, 29-34 (1893)
[59] Lambrecht, L.; Kreifelts, B.; Wildgruber, D., Age-Related Decrease in Recognition of Emotional Facial and Prosodic Expressions, Emotion, 12, 529-539 (2012)
[60] Light, R. J., Measures of Response Agreement for Qualitative Data: Some Generalizations and Alternatives, Psychological Bulletin, 76, 365-377 (1971)
[61] Marsh, A. A.; Elfenbein, H. A.; Ambady, N., Cultural Differences in Facial Expressions of Emotions, Psychological Science, 14, 373-376 (2003)
[62] Mumford, A. A.; Young, M., The Interrelationships of the Physical Measurements and the Vital Capacity, Biometrika, 15, 109-133 (1923)
[63] Murphy, A. H., The Finley Affair: A Signal Event in the History of Forecast Verification, Weather and Forecasting, 11, 3-20 (1996)
[64] Murphy, A. H.; Daan, H.; Murphy, A. H.; Katz, R. W., Forecast Evaluation, Probability, Statistics and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences, 379-437 (1985), Boulder, CO: Westview Press, Boulder, CO
[65] Murphy, A. H.; Winkler, R. L., A General Framework for Forecast Verification, Monthly Weather Review, 115, 1330-1338 (1987)
[66] Niles, H. E., Correlation, Causation, and Wright’s Theory of ‘Path Coefficients,’, Genetics, 7, 258-273 (1922)
[67] Norton, H. W., Chance in Medicine and Research, British Medical Journal, 2, 467-468 (1939)
[68] O’Connell, D. L.; Dobson, A. J., General Observer-Agreement Measures on Individual Subjects and Groups of Subjects, Biometrics, 40, 973-983 (1984) · Zbl 0567.62092
[69] Orgeta, V., Effects of Age and Task Difficulty on Recognition of Facial Affect, The Journals of Gerontology, Series B, 65B, 323-327 (2010)
[70] Park, H. S.; Levine, T. R., A Probability Model of Accuracy in Deception Detection Experiments, Communication Monographs, 68, 201-210 (2001)
[71] Pearl, J., Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference (2nd ed.) (2009), New York: Cambridge University Press, New York · Zbl 1188.68291
[72] ———, Comment: Understanding Simpson’s Paradox, The American Statistician, 68, 8-13 (2014) · Zbl 07653617
[73] Pearson, K., Mathematical Contributions to the Theory of Evolution, III. Regression, Heredity, and Panmixia, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series A, 187, 253-318 (1896) · JFM 27.0185.01
[74] ———, On the Criterion that a Given System of Deviations from the Probable in the Case of a Correlated System of Variables Is Such that it can be Reasonably Supposed to Have Arisen from Random Sampling, Philosophical Magazine, 50, 157-175 (1900) · JFM 31.0238.04
[75] ———, On the Theory of Contingency and its Relation to Association and Normal Correlation (1904), London: Dulau and Co, London
[76] ———, On a Brief Proof of the Fundamental Formula for Testing the Goodness of Fit of Frequency Distributions and on the Probable Error of ‘P,’, Philosophical Magazine, 31, 369-378 (1916) · JFM 46.1495.07
[77] Pearson, K.; Lee, A., Inheritance of Physical Characteristics, Biometrika, 2, 357-462 (1903)
[78] Pearson, K.; Lee, A.; Bramley-Moore, L., Genetic (Reproductive) Selection: Inheritance of Fertility in Man and of Fecundity in Thoroughbred Racehorses, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series A, 192, 257-330 (1899) · JFM 30.0223.01
[79] Peirce, C. S., The Numerical Measure of the Success of Predictions, Science, 4, 453-454 (1884)
[80] Pepe, M. S., The Statistical Evaluation of Medical Tests for Classification and Prediction (2003), Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK · Zbl 1039.62105
[81] Radelet, M. L.; Pierce, G. L., Choosing Those Who Will Die: Race and the Death Penalty in Florida, Florida Law Review, 43, 1-34 (1991)
[82] Rovine, M. J.; Anderson, D. R.; Anderson, D. R.; Hausman, C. R., Peirce’s Coefficient of the Science of the Method: An Early Form of the Correlation Coefficient, Conversations on Peirce: Reals and Ideals, 207-229 (2012)
[83] Russell, J. A.; Fernández-Dols, J. M., The Psychology of Facial Expression, (1997), Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
[84] Sauter, D. A.; Scott, S. K., More than One Kind of Happiness: Can We Recognize Vocal Expressions of Different Positive States?, Motivation and Emotion, 31, 192-199 (2007)
[85] Scherer, K. R., Vocal Communication of Emotion: A Review of Research Paradigms, Speech Communication, 40, 227-256 (2003) · Zbl 1006.68948
[86] Schlegel, K.; Grandjean, D.; Scherer, K. R., Emotion Recognition: Unidirectional Ability or a Set of Modality- and Emotion-Specific Skills?, Personality and Individual Differences, 53, 16-21 (2012)
[87] Scott, W. A., Reliability of Content Analysis: The Case of Nominal Scale Coding, Public Opinion Quarterly, 19, 321-325 (1959)
[88] Simpson, E. H., The Interpretation of Interaction in Contingency Tables, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 13, 238-241 (1951) · Zbl 0045.08802
[89] Smeeton, N. C., Early History of the Kappa Statistic, Biometrics, 41, 795 (1985)
[90] Stephenson, D. B., Use of the ‘Odds Ratio’ for Diagnosing Forecast Skill, Weather and Forecasting, 15, 221-232 (2000)
[91] Stigler, S. M., The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900 (1986), Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA · Zbl 0656.62005
[92] ———, Statistics on the Table: The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods, (1999), Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA · Zbl 0997.62506
[93] Swamy, P. A.V. B.; Mehta, J. S.; Tavlas, G. S.; Hall, S. G., Two Applications of the Random Coefficient Procedure: Correcting for Misspecifications in a Small Area Level Model and Resolving Simpson’s Paradox, Economic Modelling (2015)
[94] Swets, J. A., Indices of Discrimination or Diagnostic Accuracy: Their ROCs and Implied Models, Psychological Bulletin, 99, 110-117 (1986)
[95] Tolley, H. R.; Ezekiel, M., The Doolittle Method, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 22, 497-500 (1927)
[96] Wagner, H. L., On Measuring Performance in Categorical Judgment Studies of Nonverbal Behavior, Journal of Nonverbal Behavior, 17, 3-28 (1993)
[97] ———; Russell, J. A.; Fernández-Dols, J. M., Methods for the Study of Facial Behavior, The Psychology of Facial Expression, 31-54 (1997), Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
[98] Warton, D. I.; Hue, F. K. C., The Arcsine Is Asinine: The Analysis of Proportions in Ecology, Ecology, 92, 3-10 (2011)
[99] Weingart, S.; Wyer, P., Emergency Medicine Decision Making (2006), New York: McGraw-Hill Professional, New York
[100] Wherry, R. J., An Extension of the Doolittle Method to Simple Regression Problems, Journal of Educational Psychology, 32, 459-464 (1941)
[101] Wilhelm, O.; Hildebrandt, A.; Manske, K.; , Schacht, A., and Sommer, W., Test Battery for Measuring the Perception and Recognition of Facial Expressions of Emotion, Frontiers in Psychology, 5 (2014)
[102] Wilks, D. S., Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences (3rd ed.) (2011), Waltham, MA: Academic Press, Waltham, MA
[103] Wilson, E.; Puckrin, O.; Letto, K.; Doyle, R.; Caravan, H.; Camus, S.; Bassett, K., The Arcsine Transformation: Has the Time Come for Retirement? (2010)
[104] Woodworth, R. S., Experimental Psychology (1938), New York: Henry Holt, New York
[105] Woodworth, R. S.; Schlosberg, H., Experimental Psychology (3rd ed.) (1954), New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, New York
[106] Wright, T. W.; Hayford, J. F., The Adjustment of Observations by the Method of Least Squares, with Applications to Geodetic Work (2nd ed.) (1906), New York: D. Van Nostrand Company, New York · JFM 37.0960.05
[107] Yule, G. U., On the Association of Attributes in Statistics, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Series A, 194, 257-319 (1900) · JFM 31.0238.05
[108] ———, Notes on the Theory of Association of Attributes in Statistics, Biometrika, 2, 121-134 (1903)
[109] Zwinderman, A. H.; Bosuyt, P. M., We Should not Pool Diagnostic Likelihood Ratios in Systematic Reviews, Statistics in Medicine, 27, 687-697 (2008)
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.