×

Bootstrap point optimal unit root tests. (English) Zbl 1499.62329

Summary: In this article, we investigate and compare the behaviour of some bootstrap unit root tests in finite ARMA models with a constant and/or a trend and use them to obtain asymptotic results for the point optimal (hereafter PO) test, in terms of both size and power. We demonstrate the asymptotic validity of bootstrapping the PO test. We provide a feasible method for obtaining approximate critical values for the PO unit root test. Through simulations, we investigate how effective the bootstrap is in different sample sizes, correlative coefficients and close unity autoregressive roots in two different models. Our main objective is to show that the bootstrap PO test can be used in regression models with AR and MA errors and trending regressors. The results reported here provide an analytical investigation of the use of the bootstrap for PO tests with dependent data.
The main contribution of this article has two features. First, we choose the PO test and make this powerful but unfeasible procedure both powerful and feasible, by plugging in a consistent estimation of the coefficient structure, and we show that the bootstrap PO test provides asymptotically valid critical values. Second, through simulation, our numerical results suggest that the bootstrap PO test performs well in having the correct size properties and retaining good power in the parametric (and semi-parametric) bootstrap procedure.

MSC:

62M10 Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH)
62P20 Applications of statistics to economics
Full Text: DOI

References:

[1] Beran, R. 1988. “Prepivoting test statistics: A bootstrap view of asymptotic refinements.” Journal of American Statistical Association, 83, 687-697.; · Zbl 0662.62024
[2] Berkowitz, J., and L. Kilian. 2000. “Recent Developments in Bootstrapping Time Series.” Econometric Reviews 19(1):1-48.; · Zbl 0949.62022
[3] Bhatti, M.I., M.Z. Hossain, and H. AI-Shanfari. 2006. Econometric Analysis of Model Selection and Model Testing. Ashgate Publishing Limited, Gower House, Croft Road, Aldershot, Hamshire, GU11 3HR, England, UK.;
[4] Bühlmann, P. 1995. “Moving-Average Representation of Autoregressive Approximations.” Stochastic Processes and Their Applications 60:331-42.; · Zbl 0847.60027
[5] Cavaliere, G., and A.M.R. Taylor. 2009. “Bootstrap M Unit Root Tests.” Econometric Reviews 28(5):393-421.; · Zbl 1168.62080
[6] Chang, Y., and J.Y. Park. 2002. “On the Asymptotics of ADF Tests for Unit Roots.” Econometric Reviews 21:431-47.; · Zbl 1049.62096
[7] Dickey, D.A., and W.A. Fuller. 1979. “Distribution of the Estimators or Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 74(366):427-31.; · Zbl 0413.62075
[8] Dufour, J.M., and M.L. King. 1991. “Optimal Invariant Test for the Autocorrelation Coefficient in Linear Regressions with Stationary or Nonstationary AR(1) Errors.” Journal of Econometrics 47(1):115-43.; · Zbl 0729.62079
[9] Efron, B. 1979. “Bootstrap Methods: Another Look at Jackknife.” The Annals of Statistics, 7(1):1-26.; · Zbl 0406.62024
[10] Elliott, G., T.J. Rothenberg, and J.H. Stock. 1996. “Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root.” Econometrica 64(4):813-36.; · Zbl 0888.62088
[11] Francke, M.K., and A.F. Vos. 2007. “Marginal Likelihood and Unit Roots.” Journal of Econometrics 137:708-28.; · Zbl 1360.62439
[12] Hall, P., and J.L. Horowitz. 1996. “Bootstrap Critical Values for Tests based on Generalized-Method-of-Moments Estimators.” Econometrica 64(4):891-916.; · Zbl 0854.62045
[13] Kreiss, J.P., and J. Franke. 1992. “Bootstrapping Stationary Autoregressive Moving-Average Models.” Journal of Time Series Analysis 13:287-317.; · Zbl 0787.62092
[14] Li, H., and G.S. Maddala. 1996. “Bootstrapping Time Series Models.” Econometric Reviews 15:115-58.; · Zbl 0855.62074
[15] Marsh, P. 2007. “Constructing Optimal Tests on a Lagged Dependent Variable.” Journal of Time Series Analysis 28(5):723-43.; · Zbl 1150.62049
[16] Marsh, P. 2009. “The Properties of Kullback-Leibler Divergence for the Unit Root Hypothesis.” Econometric Theory 25(6):1662-81.; · Zbl 1179.62124
[17] Marsh, P. 2010. “Saddlepoint and Estimated Saddlepoint Approximations for Optimal Unit Root Tests.” submitted for the Granger Centre 2008 Conference Special Issue of Econometric Theory on Bootstrap and Numerical Methods in Time Series.; · Zbl 1226.62083
[18] Ng, S., and P. Perron. 2001. “Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power.” Econometrica 69:1519-54.; · Zbl 1056.62529
[19] Palm, F.C., S. Smeekes, and J.-P. Urbain. 2008. “Bootstrap Unit-Root Tests: Comparison and Extensions.” Journal of Time Series Analysis 9(2):371-401.; · Zbl 1164.62051
[20] Perron, P., and S. Ng. 1996. “Useful Modifications to Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and their Local Asymptotic Properties.” Review of Economic Studies 63:435-565.; · Zbl 0872.62085
[21] Richard, P. 2007. “Sieve Bootstrap Unit Root Tests.” Cahiers de recherche 07-05, Department d’Economique de la Faculte d’administation à l’ Universite de Sherbrooke.;
[22] Said, S.E., and D.A. Dickey. 1984. “Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order.” Biometrika 71:599-608.; · Zbl 0564.62075
[23] Schwert, G.W. 1989. “Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 7(2):147-59.;
[24] Swensen, A.R. 2003. “A Note on the Power of Bootstrap Unit Root Tests.” Econometric Theory 19:32-48.; · Zbl 1031.62078
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.