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Opinion polling for the 2025 Philippine Senate election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This article covers opinion polling for the 2025 Philippine Senate election.

Opinion polling in the Philippines is conducted by Social Weather Stations (SWS), Pulse Asia, OCTA Research, and other pollsters.

Those who win outright are in bold. Those that are within the margin of error are in italics.

Polling for Senate elections

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Pollsters usually do face-to-face interviews with respondents. They sometimes present respondents with a mock ballot on which the respondent will mark his or her choices for the Senate. The Senate of the Philippines is elected via multiple non-transferable vote on an at-large basis, where a voter has 12 votes, cannot transfer any of the votes to a candidate, and can vote for up to twelve candidates. If the mock ballot has 13 or more preferences, the pollster classifies it as "invalid."

Aside from publishing preferences per candidate, pollsters also include other data such as averages on how many candidates the respondents included in their preferences.

Calendar

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  • Filing of candidacies: October 1 to 8, 2024
  • Deadline in substituting a candidate for it to appear on the ballot: October 8, 2024
  • Campaign period for nationally elected positions: February 11 to May 10, 2025
  • Campaign period for locally elected positions: March 28 to May 10, 2025
  • Election day: May 12, 2025

Survey details

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Date/s administered Pollster Sample size Margin of error Major issues when poll was administered
Sep 14–23, 2024[1] SWS 1,500 ±2.5%
Sep 15–19, 2024[2] Publicus Asia 1,500
Sep 6-13, 2024[3] Pulse Asia
Aug 28–Sep 2, 2024[4] OCTA 1,200 ±3.0%
Jun 26–Jul 1, 2024[5] OCTA 1,200 ±3.0%
Jun 17–24, 2024[6] Pulse Asia
Mar 14–19, 2024[7] Publicus Asia 1,500
Mar 11–14, 2024[8] OCTA 1,200 ±3.0%
Mar 6–10, 2024[9] Pulse Asia
Feb 21–29, 2024[10] Oculum 3,000 ±2.0%
Dec 10–14, 2023[11] OCTA 1,200 ±3.0%
Sep 30–Oct 4, 2023[12] OCTA 1,200 ±3.0%
Sep 20–30, 2023[13] RP-MDF 10,000 ±1.0%
Apr 15–18, 2023[14] SWS 1,200 ±3.0%

Per candidate

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By voter preferences

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Before October 2024

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Candidate Party Apr 15–18, 2023
SWS[14]
Sep 20–30, 2023
RP-MDF[13]
Sep 30–Oct 4, 2023
OCTA[12]
Dec 10–14, 2023
OCTA[11]
Feb 21–29, 2024
Oculum[10]
Mar 6–10, 2024
Pulse Asia[9]
Mar 11–14, 2024
OCTA[8]
Mar 14–19, 2024
Publicus Asia[7]
Jun 17–24, 2024
Pulse Asia[6]
Jun 26–Jul 1, 2024
OCTA[5]
Aug 28–Sep 2, 2024
OCTA[4]
Sep 6–13, 2024
Pulse Asia[3]
Sep 15–19, 2024
Publicus Asia[2]
Sep 14–23, 2024
SWS[1]

Benjamin Abalos Jr. PFP 8% 40.3% 15% 18% 12.9% 21% 10.2% 27% 28% 14.9% 18% 14%
Ernesto Abella Independent 0.6% 0.5% 1%
Persida Acosta Independent 8.9% 6.3% 7% 4.4%
Jerome Adonis Makabayan 0.2% 1%
Pantaleon Alvarez Reporma 2% 3.3% 2.0%
Jocelyn Andamo Makabayan 0.2% 1%
Bam Aquino KANP 7% 13% 12% 17.3% 7.3% 12.5% 10% 14% 19.0% 23% 14%
Ronnel Arambulo Makabayan 0.2% 1%
Gloria Macapagal Arroyo Lakas 14%
Lorraine Badoy-Partosa Independent 0.5% 0.3% 0.6%
Teddy Baguilat Liberal 2% 0.3%
Carl Balita Aksyon 0.5% 2.5% 2.6% 1.9% 1.4%
Ace Barbers Nacionalista 2% 4%
Herbert Bautista NPC 8% 17.1% 10% 12% 11.0% 11.7% 13.2% 12% 10.8% 7%
Greco Belgica PDDS 1% 1.4% 0.8% 1% 0.6%
Abigail Binay NPC 10% 11% 29.1% 14.1% 18.9% 23% 22% 37.5% 15% 20%
Jejomar Binay UNA 15% 25%
Jimmy Bondoc Independent 0.8%
Arlene Brosas Gabriela 1%
Jose Calida Independent 0.7%
Teodoro Casiño Makabayan 1%
France Castro ACT Teachers 2.0% 1% 2% 1.4% 3%
Pia Cayetano Nacionalista 23% 39.6% 36% 30% 35% 37.7% 26% 23% 42.7% 39% 35% 41.3% 27% 26%
Neri Colmenares Makabayan 4% 6% 8% 4.4% 5.4% 5.9% 4% 6% 4.2% 2%
Dakila Cua PFP 0.3%
Dingdong Dantes Independent 10.4% 8.1% 11% 10% 9.6%
Rafaela David Akbayan 0.3% 0.7%
Noli de Castro Aksyon 9% 20.2% 19% 12% 13.7% 12%
Leila de Lima Liberal 5% 6% 7% 9.3% 8.6% 9% 8%
Arthur Defensor Jr. PFP 3%
Lorenz Defensor NUP 5.5%
Mike Defensor PFP 14% 7% 8.9% 11.3% 9%
Ronald dela Rosa PDP 9% 51.7% 39% 47% 41% 33.2% 33% 28% 31.3% 36% 29% 26.2% 26% 18%
Fernando Diaz PPP 1% 0.6%
Chel Diokno Akbayan 7% 12% 7% 11.2% 7.3% 6% 7% 7.0% 28% 7%
Mimi Doringo Makabayan 0.1% 1%
Franklin Drilon Liberal 8% 13% 12% 16.1% 14.5% 15.3% 17% 18% 15.8% 12%
Paolo Duterte HNP 13% 14% 13.1% 15.1% 13.8% 15% 20% 16.3% 18%
Rodrigo Duterte PDP 25% 53% 47.7% 38% 38% 38.7% 33% 33% 38.0% 36% 25%
Sebastian Duterte PDP 13.5% 16.8% 14.9% 18% 22% 19.1% 18%
Guillermo Eleazar Reporma 7% 8% 10.4% 4.8% 9.8% 4% 5.4%
Luke Espiritu PLM 1% 0.4%
Ted Failon Independent 14.6% 18.8% 13% 12.2% 23%
Mody Floranda Makabayan 0.4% 0.2%
Christina Frasco Lakas 2.8% 2% 1.6%
Duke Frasco NUP 1.4% 2.8% 1.0%
Larry Gadon KBL 5% 4% 4.6% 3.4% 3.5% 1% 1.9%
George Garcia Independent 0.9%
Gwendolyn Garcia One Cebu 4% 5% 5.2% 5.9% 3%
Rex Gatchalian NPC 10%
Bong Go PDP 20% 68.7% 49% 53% 40% 44.2% 50% 32% 36.6% 45% 49% 40.3% 33% 18%
Ferdinand Golez Independent 0.6% 1%
Richard Gomez PFP 7% 14% 11% 11.6% 12.7% 9.9% 8% 9% 9.5%
Aurelio Gonzales Jr. Lakas 0.9%
Dick Gordon Bagumbayan 6% 16% 14% 14.8% 17.6% 12.0% 15% 18% 17.3% 10%
Samira Gutoc Aksyon 1% 2.1% 2%
Barry Guttierez Akbayan 0.9% 1.5%
Gregorio Honasan Reform PH 10% 19% 18% 23% 17.5% 17.6% 18.6% 17% 23% 21.5% 13%
Edwin Jubahib PFP 0.5%
Lorna Kapunan Aksyon 3.4% 2.9%
Panfilo Lacson Independent 16% 36.9% 32% 32% 32% 28.6% 34% 32% 32.2% 34% 44% 35.5% 29% 24%
Rey Langit PDP 1% 1.3% 1.7% 1%
Lito Lapid NPC 17% 25.3% 26% 20% 30% 25.4% 22% 21.4% 28% 33% 24.7% 16% 20%
Wilbert Lee Aksyon 0.4% 1.4% 14% 1.1%
Ronald Llamas Akbayan 0.6% 0.1%
Benjamin Magalong NPC 3.1% 2.1% 2.4%
Hermilando Mandanas PDP 2% 0.6% 2.1% 1.2% 0.6%
Rodante Marcoleta PDP 3% 8% 2.4% 2.2% 4.3% 3% 6% 3.3% 15%
Liza Araneta Marcos PFP 6.0%
Imee Marcos Nacionalista 18% 55.8% 39% 42% 35% 32.1% 29% 27% 33.8% 28% 33% 29.8% 29% 25%
Eric Martinez PDP 0.8%
Richard Mata Independent 0.4% 1%
Sonny Matula WPP 1%
Liza Maza Gabriela 0.1% 1%
Cesar Montano Independent 8.4% 7.1% 6% 7% 5.2%
Isko Moreno Aksyon 14% 36.5% 35% 32% 45% 31.5% 27% 27% 31.7% 23%
Ariel Nepomuceno Independent 0.3%
Victor Neri Independent 3% 2.2% 3.8% 2.9% 2% 3% 2.3%
Willie Ong Aksyon 24.7% 21% 17% 35% 24.6% 21% 41% 18.3% 20% 28% 19.8%
Serge Osmeña Independent 6%
Manny Pacquiao PROMDI 19% 37.2% 26% 28% 43% 33.7% 32% 33.5% 32% 34% 31.9% 29% 18%
Salvador Panelo PDP 2% 3% 0.8% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5%
Francis Pangilinan Liberal 8% 19.8% 19% 15% 22.2% 14.9% 19.2% 17% 17% 20.5% 30% 15%
Prospero Pichay Jr. Lakas 0.9% 0.9%
Emmanuel Piñol NPC 2% 3.5%
Ariel Querubin Nacionalista 1.0% 2.8% 3% 5% 2.7% 3%
Apollo Quiboloy Independent 0.2% 0.6% 1.0%
Danilo Ramos Makabayan 0.6% 2%
Ralph Recto Nacionalista 7% 14% 15% 18.8% 13.9% 15.8% 14% 12.5%
Jesus Crispin Remulla NUP 1% 3.6%
Bong Revilla Lakas 13% 63.8% 32% 35% 32% 29.6% 30% 29.9% 38% 44% 35.9% 14% 24%
Willie Revillame Independent 19.4% 13% 18% 25.9% 14.3% 15% 19%
Leni Robredo Liberal 10% 50.9% 15% 17% 23% 13.6% 11.7% 27% 8%
Rufus Rodriguez CDP 3% 3%
Vic Rodriguez Independent 0.9% 0.4% 1% 2% 1.0%
Martin Romualdez Lakas 5% 53.4%
Yedda Marie Romualdez Lakas 1.5% 2.4% 4.0%
Harry Roque PRP 4% 8% 7% 5.0% 5.8% 5.9% 2% 5% 3.6% 4%
Mar Roxas Liberal 10% 11% 15% 13.6% 11.7% 15.9% 13% 9.8%
Phillip Salvador PDP 6% 3.9% 3.6% 5.4% 4% 6% 8.1% 7%
Korina Sanchez Independent 11.5% 8.1%
Vilma Santos Nacionalista 3% 23.6% 12.1%
Allen Singson Independent 0.7% 0.6%
Chavit Singson NPC 6% 6.1% 5%
Tito Sotto NPC 18% 68.9% 42% 48% 53% 51.8% 52% 32% 50.4% 44% 50% 48.0% 37% 34%
Vico Sotto Independent 18% 35%
Anthony Taberna Independent 3.7%
Gilbert Teodoro PRP 5% 18% 19% 15.2% 12.6% 26% 16.8% 14% 12.7% 7%
Francis Tolentino Independent 6% 63.6% 28% 33% 16.7% 22% 17.6% 34% 34% 13.5% 29% 14%
Antonio Trillanes Aksyon 6% 10% 11% 13.0% 10.2% 12%
Ben Tulfo Independent 30.5% 43% 40.9% 45% 57% 46.6% 26%
Erwin Tulfo Lakas 32% 64.5% 60% 76% 52% 57.1% 58% 37% 58.0% 58% 60% 60.8% 42% 54%
Luis Raymund Villafuerte NUP 2% 2.8% 2.8%
Camille Villar Nacionalista 6% 17% 21.0% 13% 21%
Kathryna Yu-Pimentel PDP 4% 5.7% 4.1%
Don't know 3% 1% 3.5% 2.6% 2.4% 7%
Refused 4% 3% 1.7% 2.1% 1.5%
None 7% 1.0% 1.9% 3.2%
Invalid votes (13 or more names)


Per party

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  • Parties (excluding independents) with the plurality of seats in boldface.
  • Parties (excluding independents) with the majority of seats are shaded by the party color.

Seats won

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  • Totals may not add up to 12 due to margin of error.
Date Pollster
ACT-CIS
Ind
2024
Aug 28–Sep 2 OCTA[4] 1 1 0 1 0 2 2 3 1 0 1 0 3
Jun 26–Jul 1 OCTA[5] 1 1 0 1 0 2 3 3 1 0 1 0 3
Jun 17–24 Pulse Asia[6] 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 3 0 0 1 0 2
Mar 14–19 Publicus Asia[7] 1 2 0 0 1 2 1 3 0 1 0 0 1
Mar 11–14 OCTA[8] 1 2 0 1 0 2 2 3 1 0 1 0 3
Mar 6–10 Pulse Asia[9] 1 2 0 1 0 2 3 3 0 0 1 0 3
Feb 21–29 Oculum[10] 1 2 0 1 1 2 2 3 0 0 1 0 3
2023
Dec 10–14 OCTA[11] 1 1 0 1 0 2 2 2 0 0 1 1 2
Sep 30–Oct 4 OCTA[12] 1 2 0 1 0 2 2 2 0 0 1 0 2
Sep 20–30 RP-MDF[13] 1 1 0 2 1 2 1 2 1 0 1 0 2
Apr 15–18 SWS[14] 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 1 1 2

Seats after the election

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Totals may not add up to 24 due to margin of error.

Date Pollster
Ind
2024
Aug 28–Sep 2 OCTA[4] 1 1 1 0 1 0 3 6 4 1 0 1 1 0 7
Jun 26–Jul 1 OCTA[5] 1 1 1 0 1 0 3 7 4 1 0 1 1 0 7
Jun 17–24 Pulse Asia[6] 1 1 1 0 1 0 3 5 4 0 0 1 1 0 6
Mar 14–19 Publicus Asia[7] 1 1 2 0 0 1 3 5 4 0 1 0 1 0 5
Mar 11–14 OCTA[8] 1 1 2 0 1 0 3 6 4 1 0 1 1 0 7
Mar 6–10 Pulse Asia[9] 1 1 2 0 1 0 3 7 4 0 0 1 1 0 7
Feb 21–29 Oculum[10] 1 1 2 0 1 1 3 6 4 0 0 1 1 0 7
2023
Dec 10–14 OCTA[11] 1 1 1 0 1 0 3 6 3 0 0 1 1 1 6
Sep 30–Oct 4 OCTA[12] 1 1 2 0 1 0 3 6 3 0 0 1 1 0 6
Sep 20–30 RP-MDF[13] 1 1 1 0 2 1 3 6 3 1 0 1 1 0 6
Apr 15–18 SWS[14] 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 6 3 0 0 1 1 1 6

References

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  1. ^ a b "Social Weather Stations | SWS confirms survey item for Stratbase Consultancy on voting preferences for Senators in the 2025 elections". www.sws.org.ph. Retrieved October 1, 2024.
  2. ^ a b PUBLiCUS Asia, Inc. [@publicusasia] (September 30, 2024). "PAHAYAG 2024 Third Quarter" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  3. ^ a b "September 2024 Ulat ng Bayan Senatorial Pre-Election Preference probe". Pulse Asia Research Inc. Retrieved October 1, 2024.
  4. ^ a b c d "Tulfo brothers, Sotto, Go top latest OCTA senatorial survey". GMANetwork.com. September 19, 2024. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  5. ^ a b c d Casilao, Joahna Lei (June 18, 2024). "Erwin Tulfo keeps lead in OCTA's senatorial survey". GMANetwork.com. Retrieved June 19, 2024.
  6. ^ a b c d "June 2024 Ulat ng Bayan Senatorial Pre-Election Preference probe". Pulse Asia. Retrieved July 15, 2024.
  7. ^ a b c d "Former President Duterte slips from top spot in 2025 Senatorial race - PAHAYAG Survey". www.publicusasia.com. Archived from the original on June 30, 2024. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  8. ^ a b c d "Erwin Tulfo leads OCTA Research senatorial survey". GMANetwork.com. April 4, 2024. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
  9. ^ a b c d "March 2024 Nationwide Survey on 2025 Senatorial Election". Pulse Asia. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
  10. ^ a b c d Untalan, Sherylin (April 30, 2024). "Ex-president Duterte, Sotto, Tulfo top potential senatorial bets in survey". GMA News Online. Retrieved July 1, 2024.
  11. ^ a b c d Pelonia, Ada (January 2, 2024). "Erwin Tulfo leads OCTA's 2025 senatorial survey anew". DZRH. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
  12. ^ a b c d De Vera-Ruiz, Ellalyn (October 23, 2023). "Erwin Tulfo still most preferred bet for 2025 senatorial race — survey". Manila Bulletin. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
  13. ^ a b c d "Sotto, Go lead 2025 senatorial survey — RPMD". Manila Standard. October 16, 2023. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
  14. ^ a b c d "SWS confirms survey for Mr. Arnel Ty on voting preferences for Senators (aided)". SWS. June 13, 2023. Retrieved March 31, 2023.