Modelling and simulating Lenski’s long-term evolution experiment. (English) Zbl 1415.92128
Summary: We revisit the model by M. J. Wiser et al. [“Long-term dynamics of adaptation in asexual populations”, Science 342, No. 6164, 1364–1367 (2013; doi:10.1126/science.1243357)], which describes how the mean fitness increases over time due to beneficial mutations in Lenski’s long-term evolution experiment. We develop the model further both conceptually and mathematically. Conceptually, we describe the experiment with the help of a Cannings model with mutation and selection, where the latter includes diminishing returns epistasis. The analysis sheds light on the growth dynamics within every single day and reveals a runtime effect, that is, the shortening of the daily growth period with increasing fitness; and it allows to clarify the contribution of epistasis to the mean fitness curve. Mathematically, we explain rigorous results in terms of a law of large numbers (in the limit of infinite population size and for a certain asymptotic parameter regime), and present approximations based on heuristics and supported by simulations for finite populations.
MSC:
| 92D15 | Problems related to evolution |
| 92-04 | Software, source code, etc. for problems pertaining to biology |
Keywords:
Lenski’s long-term evolution experiment; epistasis; clonal interference; runtime effect; Cannings model; offspring varianceReferences:
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