×

Truncated sequential change-point detection for Markov chains with applications in the epidemic statistical analysis. (English) Zbl 07798884

Summary: In this study, we consider disorder detection problems for statistical models with dependent observations defined by Markov chains in a Bayesian setting for a uniform prior distribution when the number of observations is limited by some known quantity. To achieve this, a new optimal sequential detection procedure is constructed using optimal stopping methods. This procedure minimizes the average delay time in the class of sequential procedures with false alarm probabilities that do not exceed a fixed value. The main difference between the proposed detection procedure and the conventional ones is that it is based not on the posterior probabilities but on the weighted Shiryaev-Roberts statistic. This allows for optimal detection in a nonasymptotic sense over any bounded time interval. Thereafter, we applied the constructed procedures to the early detection problem for the beginning of the epidemic spread. We used two epidemic models: the binomial model proposed by Baron, Choudhary, and Yu (2013) and the model based on the Gaussian approximation introduced by Pergamenchtchikov, Tartakovsky, and Spivak (2022). The theoretical results were confirmed through numerical simulations using the Monte Carlo method.

MSC:

62L10 Sequential statistical analysis
62L15 Optimal stopping in statistics
60G40 Stopping times; optimal stopping problems; gambling theory
60J05 Discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces
60J20 Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.)
Full Text: DOI

References:

[1] Baron, M.2002. “Bayes and Asymptotically Pointwise Optimal Stopping Rules for the Detection of Influenza Epidemics.” In Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics, edited by Gatsonis, C., Kass, R. E., Carriquiry, A., Gelman, A., Higdon, D., Pauler, D. K., and Verdinelli, I., Vol. 6, 153-163. New York: Springer.
[2] Baron, M., Choudhary, K., and Yu, X.. 2013. “Change-Point Detection in Binomial Thinning Processes, with Applications in Epidemiology.” Sequential Analysis32 (3): 350-367. · Zbl 1294.62174
[3] Chow, Y. S., Robbins, H., and Siegmund, D.. 1971. Great Expectations: The Theory of Optimal Stopping. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company. · Zbl 0233.60044
[4] Girardin, V., Konev, V., and Pergamenchtchikov, S.. 2018. “Kullback-Leibler Approach to CUSUM Quickest Detection Rule for Markovian Time Series.” Sequential Analysis37 (3): 322-341. · Zbl 1431.62378
[5] Lai, T. L.1998. “Informations Bounds and Quick Detection of Parameters Changes in Stochastic Systems.” IEEE Transactions on Information Theory44 (7): 2917-2929. · Zbl 0955.62084
[6] Lai, T. L.2000. “Sequential Multiple Hypothesis Testing and Efficient Fault Detection-Isolation in Stochastic Systems.” IEEE Transactions on Information Theory46: 595-608. · Zbl 0994.62078
[7] Moustakides, G. V.1986. “Optimal Stopping Times for Detecting Changes in Distributions.” Annals of Statistics14: 1379-1387. · Zbl 0612.62116
[8] Pergamenchtchikov, S. M., and Tartakovsky, A. G.. 2018. “Asymptotically Optimal Pointwise and Minimax Quickest Change-Point Detection for Dependent Data.” Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes21 (1): 217-259. · Zbl 06860591
[9] Pergamenchtchikov, S. M., and Tartakovsky, A. G.. 2019. “Asymptotically Optimal Pointwise and Minimax Change-Point Detection for General Stochastic Models with a Composite Post-Change Hypothesis.” Journal of Multivariate Analysis174: 104541. · Zbl 1428.62370
[10] Pergamenchtchikov, S. M., Tartakovsky, A. G., and Spivak, V. S.. 2022. “Minimax and Pointwise Sequential Change-Point Detection and Identification for General Stochastic Models.” Journal of Multivariate Analysis190: 104977. · Zbl 1520.62101
[11] Pollak, M., and Tartakovsky, A. G.. 2009. “Optimality Properties of the Shiryaev-Roberts Procedure.” Statistica Sinica19: 1729-1739. · Zbl 1534.62121
[12] Shiryaev, A. N.1973. Statistical Sequential Analysis: Optimal Stopping Rules. Vol. 38. Translations of Mathematical Monographs. Providence, RI: American Mathematical Society. · Zbl 0267.62039
[13] Shiryaev, A. N.2008. Optimal Stopping Rules. New York: Springer. · Zbl 1138.60008
[14] Spitzer, F., Kesten, H., and Ney, P.. 1966. “The Galton-Watson Process with Mean One and Finite Variance.” Probability Theory and Its Applications11: 579-611. · Zbl 0158.35202
[15] Tartakovsky, A. G.2020. Sequential Change Detection and Hypothesis Testing: General Non-i.i.d. Stochastic Models and Asymptotically Optimal Rules. Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability 165. Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall/CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group.
[16] Tartakovsky, A. G., Nikiforov, I., and Basseville, M.. 2015. Sequential Analysis: Hypothesis Testing and Change-Point Detection. New York: Chapman & Hall/CRC. · Zbl 1341.62026
[17] Tartakovsky, A. G., and Veeravalli, V. V.. 2005. “General Asymptotic Bayesian Theory of Quickest Change Detection.” Theory of Probability & Its Applications49 (3): 458-497. · Zbl 1131.62314
[18] Yakir, B.1994. “Optimal Detection of a Change in Distribution When the Observations Form a Markov Chain with a Finite State Space.” Change-Point Problems, IMS Lecture Notes—Monograph Series23: 346-358. · Zbl 1163.62340
[19] Yuchen, L., Tartakovsky, A. G., and Veeravalli, V. V.. 2023. “Quickest Change Detection with Non-Stationary Post-Change Observations.” IEEE Transactions on Information Theory69 (5): 3400-3414. · Zbl 1542.60030
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.