×

The exponentiated Fréchet regression: an alternative model for actuarial modelling purposes. (English) Zbl 07184809

Summary: In this paper we introduce the exponentiated Fréchet regression for modelling positive responses having a long-tailed distribution in a regression model, which are common in actuarial statistics. We propose two parameterizations each of which links the regression parameters with the explanatory variables. We then discuss the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters both theoretically and empirically. In order to meet the needs of an actuary, closed-form expressions for certain risk measures for the exponentiated Fréchet distribution are also derived. We employ the proposed model to a motorcycle claim size data set.

MSC:

62J05 Linear regression; mixed models
62P05 Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics

Software:

VaRES; LBFGS-B; R; Mathematica
Full Text: DOI

References:

[1] Lehmann EL. The power of rank tests. Ann Math Stat. 1953;24:23-43. doi: 10.1214/aoms/1177729080[Crossref], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 0050.14702
[2] Gupta RC, Gupta PL, Gupta RD. Modeling failure time data by Lehman alternatives. Commun Stat - Theory Methods. 1998;27:887-904. doi: 10.1080/03610929808832134[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 0900.62534
[3] Nadarajah S, Kotz S. The exponentiated type distributions. Acta Appl Math. 2006;92:97-111. doi: 10.1007/s10440-006-9055-0[Crossref], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1128.62015
[4] Mudholkar GS, Srivastava DK. Exponentiated Weibull family for analyzing bathtub failure-rate data. IEEE Trans Reliab. 1993;R-42:299-302. doi: 10.1109/24.229504[Crossref], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 0800.62609
[5] Nadarajah S. The exponentiated Gumbel distribution with climate application. Environmetrics. 2006;17:13-23. doi: 10.1002/env.739[Crossref], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar]
[6] Cooray K. Exponentiated Sinh Cauchy distribution with applications. Commun Stat - Theory Methods. 2013;42:3838-3852. doi: 10.1080/03610926.2011.625488[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1466.62248
[7] Kotz S, Nadarajah S. Extreme value distributions: theory and applications. London: Imperial College; 2000. [Crossref], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 0960.62051
[8] Nadarajah S, Kotz S. The exponentiated Frechet distribution; 2003; 0312001. Available from: http://Interstat.statjournals.netInterstat.statjournals.net[Google Scholar]
[9] Abouammoh AM, Alshingiti AM. Reliability estimation of generalized inverted exponential distribution. J Stat Comput Simul. 2009;79:1301-1315. doi: 10.1080/00949650802261095[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1178.62109
[10] Devandra K. Single and product moments of generalized order statistics from exponentiated Fréchet distribution and a characterization. Int J Inf Manage Sci. 2011;22:221-231. [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1259.60021
[11] Jamjoom AA, Al-Saiary ZA. Computing the moments of order statistics from independent nonidentically distributed exponentiated Frechet variables. J Probab Stat. 2012; Art. ID 248750, 14p. [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1245.62054
[12] Asmussen S. Applied probability and queues. New York: Springer; 2003. [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1029.60001
[13] Panjer HH. Operational risk, modeling analytics. Hoboken (NJ): Wiley; 2006. [Crossref], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1258.62101
[14] McCullagh P, Nelder JA. Generalized linear models. London: Chapman and Hall; 1992. [Google Scholar]
[15] Lawless JF. Statistical models and methods for lifetime data. New York: Wiley; 1982. [Crossref], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 0541.62081
[16] Beirlant J, Goegebeur Y, Verlaak R, Vynckier P. Burr regression and portfolio segmentation. Insur: Math Econ. 1998;23:231-250. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 0952.62092
[17] Beirlant J, Goegebeur Y. Regression with response distributions of Pareto-type. Comput Stat Data Anal. 2003;42:595-619. doi: 10.1016/S0167-9473(02)00120-2[Crossref], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1429.62078
[18] Frees EW. Regression modeling with actuarial and financial applications. New York: Cambridge University Press; 2010. [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1284.62010
[19] Manning WG, Basu A, Mullahy J. Generalized modeling approaches to risk adjustment of skewed outcomes data. J Health Econ. 2005;24:465-488. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2004.09.011[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar]
[20] McDonald JB, Butler RJ. Regression models for positive random variables. J Economet. 1990;43:227-251. doi: 10.1016/0304-4076(90)90118-D[Crossref], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 0692.62091
[21] Frangos N, Karlis D. Modelling losses using an exponential-inverse Gaussian distribution. Insur: Math Econ. 2004;35:53-67. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1054.62127
[22] Paula GA, Leiva V, Barros M, Liu S. Robust statistical modeling using the Birnbaum-Saunders-t distribution applied to insurance. Appl Stoch Models Bus Ind. 2012;28:16-34. doi: 10.1002/asmb.887[Crossref], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 06292429
[23] Gómez-Déniz E, Calderin-Ojeda E, Sarabia JM. Gamma-generalized inverse Gaussian class of distributions with applications. Commun Stat - Theory Methods. 2013;42:919-933. doi: 10.1080/03610926.2011.588360[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1347.62029
[24] R Core Team. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing; 2014. Available from: http://www.R-project.org/[Google Scholar]
[25] Byrd RH, Lu P, Nocedal J, Zhu C. A limited memory algorithm for bound constrained optimization. SIAM J Sci Comput. 1995;16:11901208. doi: 10.1137/0916069[Crossref], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 0836.65080
[26] D’Agostino RB, Stephens MA. Goodness-of-fit techniques. New York: Marcel Dekker; 1986. [Google Scholar] · Zbl 0597.62030
[27] Nadarajah S, Chan S, Afuecheta E. VaRES: computes value at risk and expected shortfall for over 100 parametric distributions. R package version 1.0.2013. Available from: http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=aRES[Google Scholar] · Zbl 1462.62759
[28] Gradshteyn IS, Ryzhik IM. Table of integrals, series, and products. 7th ed. San Diego, CA: Academic Press; 2007. [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1208.65001
[29] Wang S. An actuarial index of the right-tail risk. North Amer Actuar J. 1998;2:88-101. doi: 10.1080/10920277.1998.10595708[Taylor & Francis Online], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1081.62570
[30] Artzner P, Delbaen F, Eber J-M, Heath D. Coherent measures of risk. Math Fin. 1999;9:203-228. doi: 10.1111/1467-9965.00068[Crossref], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 0980.91042
[31] Wolfram Research, Inc. Mathematica, Version 9.0. Champaign, IL; 2012. [Google Scholar]
[32] Ohlsson E, Johansson B. Non-life insurance pricing with generalized linear models. Berlin: Springer; 2010. [Crossref], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1194.91011
[33] Burr IW. Cumulative frequency functions. Ann Math Stat. 1942;13:215-232. doi: 10.1214/aoms/1177731607[Crossref], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 0060.29602
[34] Hogg RV, Klugman SA. Loss distributions. New York: Wiley; 1984. [Crossref], [Google Scholar]
[35] Braun A. Pricing catastrophe swaps: a contingent claims approach. Insur: Math Econ. 2011;49:520-536. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1228.91065
[36] de Jong P, Heller GZ. Generalized linear models for insurance data. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2008. [Crossref], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1142.91046
[37] Vandervieren E, Hubert M. An adjusted boxplot for skewed distributions. In: Antoch J, editor. Proceedings in computational statistics 2004. Heidelberg: Springer; 1933-1940. [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1452.62074
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.