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Tail mean-variance portfolio selection with estimation risk. (English) Zbl 1537.91253

Summary: Tail mean-variance (TMV) has emerged from the actuarial community as a criterion for risk management and portfolio selection, with a focus on extreme losses. The existing literature on portfolio optimization under the TMV criterion relies on the plug-in approach that substitutes the unknown mean vector and covariance matrix of asset returns in the optimal portfolio weights with their sample counterparts. However, the plug-in method inevitably introduces estimation risk and usually leads to poor out-of-sample portfolio performance. To address this issue, we propose a combination of the plug-in and 1/N rules and optimize its expected out-of-sample performance. Our study is based on the mean-variance-standard-deviation (MVS) performance measure, which encompasses the TMV, classical mean-variance, and mean-standard-deviation (MStD) as special cases. The MStD criterion is particularly relevant to mean-risk portfolio selection when risk is measured by quantile-based risk measures. Our proposed combined portfolio consistently outperforms both the plug-in MVS and 1/N portfolios in simulated and real-world datasets.

MSC:

91G05 Actuarial mathematics
91G10 Portfolio theory
Full Text: DOI

References:

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