×

Discounted optimal stopping problems for maxima of geometric Brownian motions with switching payoffs. (English) Zbl 1497.60059

The authors present closed-form solutions to some discounted optimal stopping problems for running the maximum of geometric Brownian motion with payoff switching based on the dynamics of a two-state continuous-time Markov chain [X. Guo, J. Appl. Probab. 38, No. 2, 464–481 (2001; Zbl 0988.60038); X. Guo and Q. Zhang, SIAM J. Appl. Math. 64, No. 6, 2034–2049 (2004; Zbl 1061.90082)]. The proof is based on reducing the original problems to equivalent free-boundary problems and solving the latter problems using smooth fit and normal refractive conditions. It is shown that the optimal termination boundary is determined as the maximum solution of all related two-dimensional systems associated with the first-order nonlinear ordinary differential equations of the two-dimensional solution of the maximum boundary. The obtained results relate to the valuation of real conversion look-back options with fixed and floating sunk costs with real switching look-back options in the Black-Merton-Scholes model (see [A. K. Dixit and R. S. Pindyck, Investment under uncertainty. Princeton: Princeton University Press. 303–309 (1994)] for examples of standard real options with switching payoffs).

MSC:

60G40 Stopping times; optimal stopping problems; gambling theory
60G44 Martingales with continuous parameter
60J65 Brownian motion
60J27 Continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces
35R35 Free boundary problems for PDEs

References:

[1] Adkins, R. and Paxson, D. (2016). Subsidies for renewable energy facilities under uncertainty. Manch. Sch.84, 222-250.
[2] Asmussen, S., Avram, F. and Pistorius, M. (2003). Russian and American put options under exponential phase-type Lévy models. Stoch. Process. Appl.109, 79-111. · Zbl 1075.60037
[3] Avram, F., Kyprianou, A. E. and Pistorius, M. (2004). Exit problems for spectrally negative Lévy processes and applications to (Canadized) Russian options. Ann. Appl. Prob.14, 215-238. · Zbl 1042.60023
[4] Boomsma, T. K. and Linnerud, K. (2015). Market and policy risk under different renewable electricity support schemes. Europ. J. Operat. Res.89, 435-448.
[5] Boomsma, T. K., Meade, N. and Fleten, S.-E. (2012). Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: a real options approach. Europ. J. Operat. Res.220, 225-237. · Zbl 1253.91134
[6] Baurdoux, E. J. and Kyprianou, A. E. (2009). The Shepp-Shiryaev stochastic game driven by a spectrally negative Lévy process. Theory Prob. Appl.53, 481-499. · Zbl 1209.91034
[7] Baurdoux, E. J. and Van Schaik, K. (2014). Predicting the time at which a LC)vy process attains its ultimate supremum. Acta Appl. Math.134, 21-44. · Zbl 1309.60039
[8] Beibel, M. and Lerche, H. R. (1997). A new look at optimal stopping problems related to mathematical finance. Statistica Sinica7, 93-108. · Zbl 0895.60048
[9] Chronopoulos, M., Hagspiel, V. and Fleten, S-E. (2016). Stepwise green investment under policy uncertainty. Energy J.37, 87-108.
[10] Dalang, R. C. and Hongler, M.-O. (2004). The right time to sell a stock whose price is driven by Markovian noise. Ann. Appl. Prob.14, 2167-2201. · Zbl 1070.60037
[11] Dalby, P. A. O., Gillerhaugen, G. R., Hagspiel, V., Leth-Olsen, T. and Thijssen, J. J. J. (2018). Green investment under policy uncertainty and Bayesian learning. Energy161, 1262-1281.
[12] Dixit, A. K. and Pindyck, R. S. (1994). Investment under Uncertainty.Princeton University Press.
[13] Dubins, L., Shepp, L. A. and Shiryaev, A. N. (1993). Optimal stopping rules and maximal inequalities for Bessel processes. Theory Prob. Appl.38, 226-261. · Zbl 0807.60040
[14] Elliott, R. J., Aggoun, L. and Moore, J. B. (1995). Hidden Markov Models: Estimation and Control.Springer, New York. · Zbl 0819.60045
[15] Eryilmaz, D. and Homans, F. R. (2016). How does uncertainty in renewable energy policy affect decisions to invest in wind energy?Electricity J.29, 64-71.
[16] Gapeev, P. V. (2007). Discounted optimal stopping for maxima of some jump-diffusion processes. J. Appl. Prob.44, 713-731. · Zbl 1146.60037
[17] Gapeev, P. V. and Rodosthenous, N. (2014). Optimal stopping problems in diffusion-type models with running maxima and drawdowns. J. Appl. Prob.51, 799-817. · Zbl 1312.60044
[18] Gapeev, P. V. and Rodosthenous, N. (2015). On the drawdowns and drawups in diffusion-type models with running maxima and minima. J. Math. Anal. Appl.434, 413-431. · Zbl 1329.60229
[19] Gapeev, P. V. and Rodosthenous, N. (2016). Perpetual American options in diffusion-type models with running maxima and drawdowns. Stoch. Process. Appl.126, 2038-2061. · Zbl 1337.60072
[20] Gerber, H. U., Michaud, F. and Shiu, E. S. W. (1995). Pricing Russian options with the compound Poisson process. Insurance Math. Econom.17, 79.
[21] Glover, K., Hulley, H. and Peskir, G. (2013). Three-Dimensional Brownian motion and the golden ratio rule. Ann. Appl. Prob.23, 895-922. · Zbl 1408.60032
[22] Graversen, S. E. and Peskir, G. (1998). Optimal stopping and maximal inequalities for geometric Brownian motion. J. Appl. Prob.35, 856-872. · Zbl 0929.60027
[23] Guo, X. (2001). An explicit solution to an optimal stopping problem with regime switching. J. Appl. Prob.38, 464-481. · Zbl 0988.60038
[24] Guo, X. and Shepp, L. A. (2001). Some optimal stopping problems with nontrivial boundaries for pricing exotic options. J. Appl. Prob.38, 647-658. · Zbl 1026.91048
[25] Guo, X. and Zervos, M. (2010). \( \pi\) options. Stoch. Process. Appl.120, 1033-1059. · Zbl 1200.91290
[26] Guo, X. and Zhang, Q. (2004). Closed-Form solutions for perpetual American put options with regime switching. SIAM J. Appl. Math.64, 2034-2049. · Zbl 1061.90082
[27] Hassett, K. A. and Metcalf, G. E. (1999). Investment with uncertain tax policy: does random tax policy discourage investment?Economic J.109, 372-393.
[28] Jiang, Z. and Pistorius, M. R. (2008). On perpetual American put valuation and first-passage in a regime-switching model with jumps. Finance Stoch.12, 331-355. · Zbl 1164.60066
[29] Jobert, A. and Rogers, L. C. G. (2006). Option pricing with Markov-Modulated dynamics. SIAM J. Control Optimization44, 2063-2078. · Zbl 1158.91380
[30] Kyprianou, A. E. and Ott, C. (2014). A capped optimal stopping problem for the maximum process. Acta Appl. Math.129, 147-174. · Zbl 1312.60046
[31] Liptser, R. S. and Shiryaev, A. N. (2001). Statistics of Random Processes I, 2nd edn. Springer, Berlin. · Zbl 1008.62072
[32] Mordecki, E. and Moreira, W. (2001). Russian options for a diffusion with negative jumps. Publ. Mat. Uruguay9, 37-51. · Zbl 07786356
[33] Ott, C. (2013). Optimal stopping problems for the maximum process with upper and lower caps. Ann. Appl. Prob.23, 2327-2356. · Zbl 1290.60048
[34] Pedersen, J. L. (2000). Discounted optimal stopping problems for the maximum process. J. Appl. Prob.37, 972-983. · Zbl 0980.60050
[35] Peskir, G. (1998). Optimal stopping of the maximum process: the maximality principle. Ann. Prob.26, 1614-1640. · Zbl 0935.60025
[36] Peskir, G. (2007). A change-of-variable formula with local time on surfaces. In Séminaire de Probabilité XL (Lecture Notes Math. 1899), Springer, Berlin, pp. 69-96. · Zbl 1141.60035
[37] Peskir, G. (2012). Optimal detection of a hidden target: the median rule. Stoch. Process. Appl.122, 2249-2263. · Zbl 1253.60055
[38] Peskir, G. (2014). Quickest detection of a hidden target and extremal surfaces. Ann. Appl. Prob.24, 2340-2370. · Zbl 1338.60115
[39] Peskir, G. and Shiryaev, A. N. (2006). Optimal Stopping and Free-Boundary Problems.Birkhäuser, Basel. · Zbl 1115.60001
[40] Rodosthenous, N. and Zervos, M. (2017). Watermark options. Finance Stoch.21, 157-186. · Zbl 1380.91134
[41] Revuz, D. and Yor, M. (1999). Continuous Martingales and Brownian Motion.Springer, Berlin. · Zbl 0917.60006
[42] Ritzenhofer, I. and Spinler, S. (2016). Optimal design of feed-in-tariffs to stimulate renewable energy investments under regulatory uncertainty—a real options analysis. Energy Econom.53, 76-89.
[43] Shepp, L. A. and Shiryaev, A. N. (1993). The Russian option: reduced regret. Ann. Appl. Prob.3, 631-640. · Zbl 0783.90011
[44] Shepp, L. A. and Shiryaev, A. N. (1994). A new look at the pricing of Russian options. Theory Prob. Appl.39, 103-119. · Zbl 0834.60072
[45] Shiryaev, A. N. (1999). Essentials of Stochastic Finance.World Scientific, Singapore. · Zbl 0926.62100
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.