×

A nonstandard finite difference scheme for the SVICDR model to predict COVID-19 dynamics. (English) Zbl 1489.92181

Summary: In the context of 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19), considerable attention has been paid to mathematical models for predicting country- or region-specific future pandemic developments. In this work, we developed an SVICDR model that includes a susceptible, an all-or-nothing vaccinated, an infected, an intensive care, a deceased, and a recovered compartment. It is based on the susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model of Kermack and McKendrick, which is based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The main objective is to show the impact of parameter boundary modifications on the predicted incidence rate, taking into account recent data on Germany in the pandemic, an exponential increasing vaccination rate in the considered time window and trigonometric contact and quarantine rate functions. For the numerical solution of the ODE systems a model-specific non-standard finite difference (NSFD) scheme is designed, that preserves the positivity of solutions and yields the correct asymptotic behaviour.

MSC:

92D30 Epidemiology
65L12 Finite difference and finite volume methods for ordinary differential equations
Full Text: DOI

References:

[1] World Health Organization, <i>WHO-convened Global Study of Origins of SARS-CoV-2: China Part</i>, <i>Joint WHO-China Study</i>, Joint Report, 2021. Available from: <a href=“http://www.ecns.cn/m/news/society/2021-03-15/detail-ihainwmv2680654.shtml” target=“_blank”>http://www.ecns.cn/m/news/society/2021-03-15/detail-ihainwmv2680654.shtml</a>.
[2] C, Susceptibility of raccoon dogs for experimental SARS-CoV-2 infection, Emerg. Infect. Dis. J., 26, 2982-2985 (2020) · doi:10.3201/eid2612.203733
[3] World Health Organization, <i>Origins of SARS-CoV-2</i>, 2021. Available from: <a href=“https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/332197/WHO-2019-nCoV-FAQ-Virus_origin-2020.1-eng.pdf” target=“_blank”>https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/332197/WHO-2019-nCoV-FAQ-Virus_origin-2020.1-eng.pdf</a>.
[4] <i>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control</i>, 2021. Available from: <a href=“https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases” target=“_blank”>https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases</a>.
[5] L, COVID-19 infections and fatalities developments: empirical evidence for OECD countries and newly industrialized economies, Inter. Economics Economic Policy, 17, 801-147 (2020) · doi:10.1007/s10368-020-00487-x
[6] S, Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission: the roles of intervention strategies and lockdown, Math. Biosci. Engrg., 17, 5961-5986 (2020) · Zbl 1470.92283 · doi:10.3934/mbe.2020318
[7] <i>John Hopkins University</i>, 2021. Available from: <a href=“https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/vaccines/international” target=“_blank”>https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/vaccines/international</a>.
[8] O, The construction of next-generation matrices for compartmental epidemic models, J. Royal Soc. Interface, 7, 873-885 (2009) · doi:10.1098/rsif.2009.0386
[9] Z, Analysis of a COVID-19 compartmental model: a mathematical and computational approach, Math. Biosci. Engrg., 18, 7979-7998 (2021) · Zbl 1501.92134 · doi:10.3934/mbe.2021396
[10] M. Martcheva, <i>An introduction to mathematical epidemiology</i>, Springer, (2015), 10-13. · Zbl 1333.92006
[11] Robert Koch-Institute, <i>The methodological glossary provides explanations on concepts and definitions from epidemiology and health reporting</i>, 2021. Available from: <a href=“https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Gesundheitsmonitoring/Gesundheitsberichterstattung/Glossar/g-be_glossar_catalog.html?cms_lv2=36862902” target=“_blank”>https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Gesundheitsmonitoring/Gesundheitsberichterstattung/Glossar/g-be_glossar_catalog.html?cms_lv2=36862902</a>.
[12] O.N. Bjornstad, <i>Epidemics</i>, Springer, (2018), 32. · Zbl 1407.92001
[13] Robert Koch-Institute, <i>Epidemiologischer steckbrief zu SARS-CoV-2 und COVID-19</i>, 2021. Available from: <a href=“https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Steckbrief.html” target=“_blank”>https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Steckbrief.html</a>.
[14] F, Evaluation of vaccination strategies for SIR epidemics on random networks incorporating household structure, J. Math. Biol., 76, 483-530 (2018) · Zbl 1392.92092 · doi:10.1007/s00285-017-1139-0
[15] S. Treibert, Mathematical Modelling and Nonstandard Schemes for the Corona Virus Pandemic, Master Thesis, University of Wuppertal, 2021.
[16] R, Virological assessment of hospitalized patients with COVID-2019, Nature, 581, 465-469 (2020) · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2196-x
[17] X, Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19, Nat. Med., 26, 672-675 (2020) · doi:10.1101/2020.03.15.20036707
[18] C, SARS-CoV-2 detection, viral load and infectivity over the course of an infection, J. Infection, 81, 357-371 (2020) · doi:10.1016/j.jinf.2020.06.067
[19] W, High infectiousness immediately before COVID-19 symptom onset highlights the importance of continued contact tracing, eLife, 10, e65534 (2021) · doi:10.10.7554/elife.65534
[20] O, Waning and boosting: on the dynamics of immune status, J. Math. Biol., 77, 2023-2048 (2018) · Zbl 1404.92178 · doi:10.1007/s00285-018-1239-5
[21] S, Antibody status and incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in health care workers, New England J. Med., 384, 533-540 (2020) · doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2034545
[22] X, Studying social awareness of physical distancing in mitigating COVID-19 transmission, Math. Biosci. Engrg., 17, 7428-7441 (2020) · Zbl 1471.92357 · doi:10.3934/mbe.2020380
[23] A, An introduction to the basic reproduction number in mathematical epidemiology, Esaim-Proc. Surveys, 62, 123-138 (2018) · Zbl 1406.92608 · doi:10.1051/proc/201862123
[24] M, Fleeing lockdown and its impact on the size of epidemic outbreaks in the source and target regions-a COVID-19 lesson, Nature Sci. Rep., 9233, 9233 (2021) · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-82993/v1
[25] N, Determining important parameters in the spread of malaria through the sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model, Bull. Math. Biology, 70, 1272-1296 (2008) · Zbl 1142.92025 · doi:10.1007/s11538-008-9299-0
[26] R, The relationships between message passing, pairwise, Kermack-McKendrick and stochastic SIR epidemic models, J. Math. Biol., 75, 1563-1590 (2017) · Zbl 1383.92090 · doi:10.1007/s00285-017-1123-8
[27] R. E. Mickens, <i>Applications of nonstandard finite difference schemes</i>, World Scientific, (2000).
[28] A. Suryanto, A conservative nonstandard finite difference scheme for SIR epidemic model, in <i>International Conferences and Workshops on Basic and Applied Sciences</i>, (2011). doi: <a href=“http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.5004277” target=“_blank”>10.1063/1.5004277</a>.
[29] M. Ehrhardt, R. E. Mickens, A nonstandard finite difference scheme for solving a Zika Virus Model, Forthcoming.
[30] Robert Koch-Institute, <i>COVID-19-Fälle nach Altersgruppe und Meldewoche</i>, 2021. Available from: <a href=“https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Altersverteilung.html” target=“_blank”>https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Altersverteilung.html</a>.
[31] Robert Koch-Institute, <i>Todesfälle nach Sterbedatum</i>, 2021. Available from: <a href=“https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Projekte_RKI/COVID-19_Todesfaelle.html” target=“_blank”>https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Projekte_RKI/COVID-19_Todesfaelle.html</a>.
[32] German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive and Emergency Medicine, <i>Anzahl der Corona-Patienten (COVID-19) in intensivmedizinischer Behandlung in Deutschland seit März 2020</i>, 2021. Available from: <a href=“https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1181959/umfrage/intensivmedizinische-behandlungen-von-corona-patienten-in-deutschland/” target=“_blank”>https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1181959/umfrage/intensivmedizinische-behandlungen-von-corona-patienten-in-deutschland/</a>.
[33] <i>COVID-19 vaccination dashboard</i>, 2021. Available from: <a href=“https://impfdashboard.de/daten” target=“_blank”>https://impfdashboard.de/daten</a>.
[34] S. Treibert, <i>Matlab scripts</i>, Available from: <a href=“https://git.uni-wuppertal.de/1449563/covid-19-modelling/-/tree/master/NSFD_Paper_2021” target=“_blank”>https://git.uni-wuppertal.de/1449563/covid-19-modelling/-/tree/master/NSFD_Paper_2021</a>.
[35] Robert Koch-Institute, <i>Bericht zu Virusvarianten von SARS-CoV-2 in Deutschland</i>, 2021. Available from: <a href=“https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VO-C_2021-06-30.pdf?_blob=publicationFile” target=“_blank”>https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VO-C_2021-06-30.pdf?_blob=publicationFile</a>
[36] M, SIR-based mathematical modeling of infectious diseases with vaccination and waning immunity, J. Comput. Sci., 7, 101027 (2019) · doi:10.1016/j.jocs.2019.101027
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.