×

A quantification of long transient dynamics. (English) Zbl 1482.34107

Summary: The stability of equilibria and asymptotic behaviors of trajectories are often the primary focuses of mathematical modeling. However, many interesting phenomena that we would like to model, such as the “honeymoon period” of a disease after the onset of mass vaccination programs, are transient dynamics. Honeymoon periods can last for decades and can be important public health considerations. In many fields of science, especially in ecology, there is growing interest in a systematic study of transient dynamics. In this work, we attempt to provide a technical definition of “long transient dynamics” such as the honeymoon period and explain how these behaviors arise in systems of ordinary differential equations. We define a transient center, a point in state space that causes long transient behaviors, and derive some of its properties. In the end, we define reachable transient centers, which are transient centers that can be reached from initializations that do not need to be near the transient center.

MSC:

34C23 Bifurcation theory for ordinary differential equations
00A69 General applied mathematics
34A34 Nonlinear ordinary differential equations and systems
34C60 Qualitative investigation and simulation of ordinary differential equation models
92C50 Medical applications (general)
Full Text: DOI

References:

[1] N. Akhavan Kharazian, A Review of a Model for Imperfect Vaccination, Honeymoon Periods and Methods to Characterize Transient Dynamics, M.Sc. Project Report, Queen’s University Kingston, ON, Canada, 2018.
[2] N. Fenichel, Geometric singular perturbation theory for ordinary differential equations, J. Differential Equations, 31 (1979), pp. 53-98, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0396(79)90152-9. · Zbl 0476.34034
[3] K. T. Frank, B. Petrie, J. A. D. Fisher, and W. C. Leggett, Transient dynamics of an altered large marine ecosystem, Nature, 477 (2011), pp. 86-89, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10285.
[4] G. J. V. Geest, H. Coops, M. Scheffer, and E. H. van Nes, Long transients near the ghost of a stable state in eutrophic shallow lakes with fluctuating water levels, Ecosystems, 10 (2007), pp. 37-47, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-006-9000-0.
[5] P. Glendinning, Stability, Instability and Chaos: An Introduction to the Theory of Nonlinear Differential Equations, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1994. · Zbl 0808.34001
[6] A. Hastings, Transients: The key to long-term ecological understanding?, Trends Ecol. Evol., 19 (2004), pp. 39-45, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2003.09.007.
[7] A. Hastings, K. C. Abbott, K. Cuddington, T. Francis, G. Gellner, Y.-C. Lai, A. Morozov, S. Petrovskii, K. Scranton, and M. L. Zeeman, Transient phenomena in ecology, Science, 361 (2018), eaat6412, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat6412.
[8] D. T. Iles, R. Salguero-Gomez, P. B. Adler, and D. N. Koons, Linking transient dynamics and life history to biological invasion success, J. Ecol., 26 (2015), https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12516.
[9] F. M. G. Magpantay, M. A. Riolo, M. D. de Cellès, A. A. King, and P. Rohani, Epidemiological consequences of imperfect vaccines for immunizing infections, SIAM J. Appl. Math., 74 (2014), pp. 1810-1830, https://doi.org/10.1137/140956695. · Zbl 1379.92063
[10] A. Morozov, K. Abbott, K. Cuddington, T. Francis, G. Gellner, A. Hastings, Y.-C. Lai, S. Petrovskii, and K. Scranton, Long transients in ecology: Theory and applications, Phys. Life Rev., 32 (2020), pp. 1-40, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.plrev.2019.09.004.
[11] S. H. Strogatz, Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos: With Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, 2018.
[12] P. van den Driessche and J. Watmough, Further notes on the basic reproduction number, in Mathematical Epidemiology, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 159-178. · Zbl 1206.92038
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.