×

Reliability evaluation with limited and censored time-to-failure data based on uncertainty distributions. (English) Zbl 1481.62091

Summary: Limited and censored time-to-failure data are common in practical life testing, which may lead to a lack of knowledge, i.e., epistemic uncertainties, and makes it difficult to evaluate product reliability accurately. Under this situation, the large-sample based probability theory is not appropriate anymore. To deal with such problem, in this paper, the uncertainty theory based reliability evaluation is proposed to cope with the limited and censored time-to-failure data, where two types of life testing censoring (type-I and type-II censoring) and two types of time-to-failure data (precise and interval data) are considered. Firstly, the lifetime model and reliability evaluations based on uncertainty theory are presented. Then, the uncertain statistics method is presented for each combination of censoring types and data types in life testing, which includes four steps: order statistics construction, belief degree construction according to the Laplace principle of indifference, parameter estimation based on the uncertain principle of least squares, and uncertain hypothesis testing. Two simulation studies and two practical cases with comprehensive and in-depth discussion are conducted to illustrate the practicability and effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method can quantify epistemic uncertainties properly and provide more stable and accurate mean time to failure results under limited and censored time-to-failure data compared with probability and Bayesian probability methods.

MSC:

62N05 Reliability and life testing
90B25 Reliability, availability, maintenance, inspection in operations research
Full Text: DOI

References:

[1] Meeker, W. Q.; Escobar, L. A., Statistical Methods for Reliability Data (2014), John Wiley & Sons
[2] Beer, M.; Ferson, S.; Kreinovich, V., Imprecise probabilities in engineering analyses, Mech. Syst. Signal Process., 37, 1-2, 4-29 (2013)
[3] Jia, X.; Wang, D.; Jiang, P.; Guo, B., Inference on the reliability of weibull distribution with multiply type-i censored data, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 150, 171-181 (2016)
[4] Gholizadeh, R.; Khalilpor, M.; Hadian, M., Bayesian estimations in the Kumaraswamy distribution under progressively type ii censoring data, Int. J. Eng. Sci. Technol., 3, 9, 47-65 (2011)
[5] Xu, H.; Li, X.; Liu, L., Statistical analysis of accelerated life testing under weibull distribution based on fuzzy theory, Proceedings of the Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS), 1-5 (2015), IEEE
[6] Chaturvedi, A.; Singh, S. K.; Singh, U., Statistical inferences of type-ii progressively hybrid censored fuzzy data with rayleigh distribution, Austrian J. Stat., 47, 3, 40-62 (2018)
[7] Zarei, R.; Amini, M.; Taheri, S.; Rezaei, A., Bayesian estimation based on vague lifetime data, Soft Comput., 16, 1, 165-174 (2012) · Zbl 06130814
[8] Shafiq, M.; Atif, M.; Viertl, R., Beyond precision: accelerated life testing for fuzzy life time data, Soft Comput., 22, 22, 7355-7365 (2018) · Zbl 1402.62241
[9] Kang, R.; Zhang, Q.; Zeng, Z.; Zio, E.; Li, X., Measuring reliability under epistemic uncertainty: review on non-probabilistic reliability metrics, Chin. J. Aeronaut., 29, 3, 571-579 (2016)
[10] R. Kang, Belief Reliability Theory and Methodology.
[11] Liu, B., Uncertainty Theory (2015), Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg · Zbl 1309.28001
[12] Li, X.-Y.; Wu, J.-P.; Liu, L.; Wen, M.-L.; Kang, R., Modeling accelerated degradation data based on the uncertain process, IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst., 27, 8, 1532-1542 (2018)
[13] Wu, J.-P.; Kang, R.; Li, X.-Y., Uncertain accelerated degradation modeling and analysis considering epistemic uncertainties in time and unit dimension, Reliabil. Eng. Syst. Saf., 106967 (2020)
[14] W.-B. Chen, X.-Y. Li, R. Kang, Y.-Q. Hu, Integration method of multi-source accelerated degradation testing data considering epistemic uncertainties and stress dependency, Hannover, Germany, 2020, pp. 918-924.
[15] Zhang, Q.; Kang, R.; Wen, M., Belief reliability for uncertain random systems, IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst., 26, 6, 3605-3614 (2018)
[16] Zhang, Q.; Kang, R.; Wen, M., Decomposition method for belief reliability analysis of complex uncertain random systems, IEEE Access, 7, 132711-132719 (2019)
[17] Zu, T.; Kang, R.; Wen, M.; Zhang, Q., Belief reliability distribution based on maximum entropy principle, IEEE Access, 6, 1577-1582 (2017)
[18] Tianpei, Z.; Rui, K.; Meilin, W., Graduation formula: a new method to construct belief reliability distribution under epistemic uncertainty, J. Syst. Eng. Electron., 31, 3, 626-633 (2020)
[19] Shao, F.; Li, J.; Ma, S.; Lee, M.-L. T., Semiparametric varying-coefficient model for interval censored data with a cured proportion, Stat. Med., 33, 10, 1700-1712 (2014)
[20] Hao, P.; Wang, Y.; Ma, R.; Liu, H.; Wang, B.; Li, G., A new reliability-based design optimization framework using isogeometric analysis, Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Eng., 345, 476-501 (2019) · Zbl 1440.74267
[21] Hsu, C.-H.; Taylor, J. M.; Murray, S.; Commenges, D., Multiple imputation for interval censored data with auxiliary variables, Stat. Med., 26, 4, 769-781 (2007)
[22] Childs, A.; Chandrasekar, B.; Balakrishnan, N.; Kundu, D., Exact likelihood inference based on type-i and type-ii hybrid censored samples from the exponential distribution, Ann. Inst. Stat. Math., 55, 2, 319-330 (2003) · Zbl 1049.62021
[23] Tse, S. K.; Yang, C.; Yuen, H.-K., Statistical analysis of weibull distributed lifetime data under type ii progressive censoring with binomial removals, J. Appl. Stat., 27, 8, 1033-1043 (2000) · Zbl 1020.62092
[24] Diaconis, P.; Keller, J. B., Fair dice, Am. Math. Monthly, 96, 4, 337-339 (1989) · Zbl 0686.52007
[25] Gao, Y.; Gao, R.; Yang, L., Analysis of order statistics of uncertain variables, J. Uncertain. Anal. Appl., 3, 1, 1 (2015)
[26] Zhao, Y.-X.; Gao, Q.; Wang, J.-N., An approach for determining an appropriate assumed distribution of fatigue life under limited data, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 67, 1, 1-7 (2000)
[27] Li, Y., Research on accelerated lifetime test method for aeroengine mainshaft bearing (2019), Harbin Institute of Technology, Ph.D. thesis
[28] Bloom, I.; Cole, B.; Sohn, J.; Jones, S.; Polzin, E.; Battaglia, V.; Henriksen, G.; Motloch, C.; Richardson, R.; Unkelhaeuser, T., An accelerated calendar and cycle life study of li-ion cells, J. Power Sources, 101, 2, 238-247 (2001)
[29] Lawless, J. F., Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data, 362 (2011), John Wiley & Sons · Zbl 0541.62081
[30] Ghosh, J. K.; Delampady, M.; Samanta, T., An Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Theory and Methods (2007), Springer Science & Business Media
[31] Modarres, M.; Kaminskiy, M. P.; Krivtsov, V., Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis: A Practical Guide (2016), CRC Press
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.