Trends and risk of HIV/AIDS in Turkey and its cities. (English) Zbl 1478.92195
Ashyralyev, Allaberen (ed.) et al., Functional analysis in interdisciplinary applications II. Collected papers based on the presentations at the mini-symposium, held as part of the fourth international conference on analysis and applied mathematics, ICAAM, September 6–9, 2018. Cham: Springer. Springer Proc. Math. Stat. 351, 117-126 (2021).
Summary: We developed a mathematical model to study the dynamics of HIV/AIDS in Turkey and its environs. Two equilibrium points were found and local stability analysis of the equilibria was conducted. It was found that the stability of the equilibria depend on a threshold quantity; the basic reproduction ratio \(R_0\). When \(R_0 \le 1\), the disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable and disease dies out. When \(R_0 \ge 1\), the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable and disease persist. We considered the dynamics of the disease in 25 cities of Turkey and found out that the basic reproduction ratio for 17 cities is greater than one, while 8 of them have less than one. This indicates there is going to be epidemics in these 17 cities and the disease will die out in the remaining cities. The results also indicated that some of the cities (with bigger basic reproduction ratio) are at bigger risk than the others. There is need for quick intervention by the relevant authorities, especially in the cities with greater risk of the disease.
For the entire collection see [Zbl 1470.46002].
For the entire collection see [Zbl 1470.46002].
MSC:
| 92D30 | Epidemiology |
References:
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