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Colombo, Rinaldo M.; Garavello, Mauro; Marcellini, Francesca; Rossi, Elena

An age and space structured SIR model describing the covid-19 pandemic. (English) Zbl 1469.92107

J. Math. Ind. 10, Paper No. 22, 20 p. (2020).
Summary: We present an epidemic model capable of describing key features of the Covid-19 pandemic. While capturing several qualitative properties of the virus spreading, it allows to compute the basic reproduction number, the number of deaths due to the virus and various other statistics. Numerical integrations are used to illustrate the adherence of the evolutions described by the model to specific well known real features of the present pandemic. In particular, this model is consistent with the well known relevance of quarantine, shows the dramatic role of care houses and accounts for the increase in the death toll when spatial movements are not constrained.

Cited in 24 Documents

MSC:

92D30 Epidemiology

Keywords:

age and space structured SIR model; differential equations in epidemic modeling; covid-19 modeling

Software:

GitHub
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Full Text: DOI
OA License

References:

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