Document Zbl 1447.92550

Banks, H. T.; Banks, J. E.; Rosenheim, Jay; Tillman, Kristen

Modelling populations of Lygus hesperus on cotton fields in the San Joaquin Valley of California: the importance of statistical and mathematical model choice. (English) Zbl 1447.92550

J. Biol. Dyn. 11, Suppl. 1, 25-39 (2017).

Summary: Understanding the population dynamics of herbivorous insects is critical to developing and implementing effective pest control protocols. In the context of inverse problems, we explore the dynamic effects of pesticide treatments on Lygus hesperus, a common pest of cotton in the western United States. Fitting models to field data, we explore the topic of model selection for an appropriate mathematical model and corresponding statistical models, and use techniques including ANOVA-based model comparison tests and residual plot analysis to make the best selections. In addition we explore the topic of data information content: in this example, we are testing the question of whether data, as it is currently collected, can support time-dependent parameter estimation. Furthermore, we investigate the statistical assumptions often haphazardly made in the process of parameter estimation and consider the implications of unfounded assumptions.

Cited in 3 Documents

MSC:

92D45	Pest management
92D25	Population dynamics (general)
62P10	Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis
92-10	Mathematical modeling or simulation for problems pertaining to biology

Keywords:

inverse problem; ordinary least squares; generalized least squares; model selection; information content; bootstrapping; residual plots; linear splines; hemiptera; herbivory; pest suppression; pesticide

Software:

Prism

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References:

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