×

SARS outbreaks in Ontario, Hong Kong and Singapore: the role of diagnosis and isolation as a control mechanism. (English) Zbl 1434.92028

Summary: In this article we use global and regional data from the SARS epidemic in conjunction with a model of susceptible, exposed, infective, diagnosed, and recovered classes of people (“SEIJR”) to extract average properties and rate constants for those populations. The model is fitted to data from the Ontario (Toronto) in Canada, Hong Kong in China and Singapore outbreaks and predictions are made based on various assumptions and observations, including the current effect of isolating individuals diagnosed with SARS. The epidemic dynamics for Hong Kong and Singapore appear to be different from the dynamics in Toronto, Ontario. Toronto shows a very rapid increase in the number of cases between March 31st and April 6th, followed by a significant slowing in the number of new cases. We explain this as the result of an increase in the diagnostic rate and in the effectiveness of patient isolation after March 26th. Our best estimates are consistent with SARS eventually being contained in Toronto, although the time of containment is sensitive to the parameters in our model. It is shown that despite the empirically modeled heterogeneity in transmission, SARS’ average reproductive number is 1.2, a value quite similar to that computed for some strains of influenza [C. Castillo-Chavez et al., J. Math. Biol. 27, No. 3, 233–258 (1989; Zbl 0715.92028)]. Although it would not be surprising to see levels of SARS infection higher than 10% in some regions of the world (if unchecked), lack of data and the observed heterogeneity and sensitivity of parameters prevent us from predicting the long-term impact of SARS. The possibility that 10 or more percent of the world population at risk could eventually be infected with the virus in conjunction with a mortality rate of 3–7% or more, and indications of significant improvement in Toronto support the stringent measures that have been taken to isolate diagnosed cases.

MSC:

92D30 Epidemiology

Keywords:

SARS; SEIJR; outbreak

Citations:

Zbl 0715.92028

References:

[1] Anderson, R. M.; May, R. M., Infectious Diseases of Humans (1991), Oxford University Press: Oxford University Press Oxford
[2] BBC News, 2003. Ministers may review SARS status. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/2979623.stm, 27th April.; BBC News, 2003. Ministers may review SARS status. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/2979623.stm, 27th April.
[3] Bradsher, K., 2003a. Carrier of SARS made 7 flights before treatment. The New York Times, 11th April.; Bradsher, K., 2003a. Carrier of SARS made 7 flights before treatment. The New York Times, 11th April.
[4] Bradsher, K., 2003b. SARS is here to stay, Hong Kong and Singapore tell citizens. The New York Times, 8th April.; Bradsher, K., 2003b. SARS is here to stay, Hong Kong and Singapore tell citizens. The New York Times, 8th April.
[5] Brauer, F.; Castillo-Chavez, C., Mathematical Models in Population Biology and Epidemiology (2000), Springer: Springer New York · Zbl 0967.92015
[6] Canadian Ministry of Health, 2003. Summary of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Cases: Canada and International. http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/pphb-dgspsp/sars-sras/eu-ae/.; Canadian Ministry of Health, 2003. Summary of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Cases: Canada and International. http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/pphb-dgspsp/sars-sras/eu-ae/.
[7] Castillo-Chavez, C.; Hethcote, H. W.; Andreasen, V.; Levin, S. A.; Liu, W. M., Epidemiological models with age structure, proportionate mixing, and cross-immunity, J. Math. Biol., 27, 233-258 (1989) · Zbl 0715.92028
[8] CDC (Centers for Disease Control), 2003a. Basic information About SARS. Website: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/sars/factsheet.htm, 16th April.; CDC (Centers for Disease Control), 2003a. Basic information About SARS. Website: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/sars/factsheet.htm, 16th April.
[9] CDC (Centers for Disease Control), 2003b. Isolation and Quarantine. Website: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/sars/isolationquarantine.htm, 3rd April.; CDC (Centers for Disease Control), 2003b. Isolation and Quarantine. Website: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/sars/isolationquarantine.htm, 3rd April.
[10] CDC (Centers for Disease Control), 2003c. Information For Close Contacts of SARS Patients. Website: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/sars/factsheetcc.htm, 16th April.; CDC (Centers for Disease Control), 2003c. Information For Close Contacts of SARS Patients. Website: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/sars/factsheetcc.htm, 16th April.
[11] CDC (Centers for Disease Control), 2003d. SARS: Frequently asked questions. Website: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/sars/faq.htm, 16th April.; CDC (Centers for Disease Control), 2003d. SARS: Frequently asked questions. Website: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/sars/faq.htm, 16th April.
[12] C Health, 2003. Symptoms and treatment of SARS. Website: http://chealth.canoe.ca/.; C Health, 2003. Symptoms and treatment of SARS. Website: http://chealth.canoe.ca/.
[13] Coomer, J., 2003. Suspected SARS cases near 150 in U.S. The Reporter. Vanderbuilt Medical Center, 11th April.; Coomer, J., 2003. Suspected SARS cases near 150 in U.S. The Reporter. Vanderbuilt Medical Center, 11th April.
[14] Diekmann, O.; Heesterbeek, J. A.P., Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation (2000), Wiley: Wiley New York · Zbl 0997.92505
[15] Drosten, C., Identification of a novel coronavirus in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome, N. Engl. J. Med., 348, 1967-1976 (2003)
[16] Fire Chief Magazine, 2003. IAFF issues SARS guidelines for first responders. Website: http://www.firechief.com. 9th April.; Fire Chief Magazine, 2003. IAFF issues SARS guidelines for first responders. Website: http://www.firechief.com. 9th April.
[17] Gerberding, J.L., 2003. Faster . . . but fast enough? N. Engl. J. Med. 348, 2030-2031.; Gerberding, J.L., 2003. Faster . . . but fast enough? N. Engl. J. Med. 348, 2030-2031.
[18] International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2003a. ProMED-mail. Archive Number 20030325.0744. SARS—WORLDWIDE, 25th March.; International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2003a. ProMED-mail. Archive Number 20030325.0744. SARS—WORLDWIDE, 25th March.
[19] International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2003b. ProMED-mail. Archive Number 20030416.0930. SARS—WORLDWIDE, 16th April.; International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2003b. ProMED-mail. Archive Number 20030416.0930. SARS—WORLDWIDE, 16th April.
[20] Kalb, C., 2003. Tracking SARS. Newsweek, 28th April.; Kalb, C., 2003. Tracking SARS. Newsweek, 28th April.
[21] Ksiazek, T. G., A novel coronavirus associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome, N. Engl. J. Med., 348, 1953-1966 (2003)
[22] McNeil, D.G., Altmann, L.K., 2003. How one person can fuel an epidemic. The New York Times, 15th April.; McNeil, D.G., Altmann, L.K., 2003. How one person can fuel an epidemic. The New York Times, 15th April.
[23] MSNBC News Service, 2003a. Record SARS deaths in Hong Kong. Website: http://www.msnbc.com/news/885653.asp. 15th April.; MSNBC News Service, 2003a. Record SARS deaths in Hong Kong. Website: http://www.msnbc.com/news/885653.asp. 15th April.
[24] MSNBC News Service, 2003b. SARS hits airlines, Qantas cuts jobs. Website: http://www.msnbc.com/news/897719.asp. 9th April.; MSNBC News Service, 2003b. SARS hits airlines, Qantas cuts jobs. Website: http://www.msnbc.com/news/897719.asp. 9th April.
[25] MSNBC News Service, 2003c. Time line. Website: http://www.msnbc.com/news/885653.asp.; MSNBC News Service, 2003c. Time line. Website: http://www.msnbc.com/news/885653.asp.
[26] Pomfret, J., 2003a. Doctor says health ministry lied about disease. The Washington Post, 9th April.; Pomfret, J., 2003a. Doctor says health ministry lied about disease. The Washington Post, 9th April.
[27] Pomfret, J., 2003b. Underreporting, secrecy fuel SARS in Beijing, WHO says. The Washington Post, 17th April.; Pomfret, J., 2003b. Underreporting, secrecy fuel SARS in Beijing, WHO says. The Washington Post, 17th April.
[28] Pomfret, J., 2003c. China seals hospitals to fight SARS. The Washington Post, 25th April.; Pomfret, J., 2003c. China seals hospitals to fight SARS. The Washington Post, 25th April.
[29] Schoen, J.W., 2003. SARS business impact spreading. MSNBC News Service, 2nd April.; Schoen, J.W., 2003. SARS business impact spreading. MSNBC News Service, 2nd April.
[30] Sloan, R., 2003. Will SARS wreak havoc here?. MSNBC News Service. Website: http://www.msnbc.com/news/894251.asp. 3rd April.; Sloan, R., 2003. Will SARS wreak havoc here?. MSNBC News Service. Website: http://www.msnbc.com/news/894251.asp. 3rd April.
[31] Stein, R., 2003a. Scientists identify cause of outbreak. The Washington Post, 17th April.; Stein, R., 2003a. Scientists identify cause of outbreak. The Washington Post, 17th April.
[32] Stein, R., 2003b. FAQ on SARS. The Washington Post. Website: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A11849-2003Apr2.html.; Stein, R., 2003b. FAQ on SARS. The Washington Post. Website: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A11849-2003Apr2.html.
[33] World Health Organization, 2003. Cumulative Number of Reported Probable Cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). http://www.who.int/csr/sarscountry/en/.; World Health Organization, 2003. Cumulative Number of Reported Probable Cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). http://www.who.int/csr/sarscountry/en/.
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.