×

Bank panics and fire sales, insolvency and illiquidity. (English) Zbl 1416.91415

Summary: Banking system crises are complex events that in a short span of time can inflict extensive damage to banks themselves and to the external economy. The crisis literature has so far identified a number of distinct effects or channels that can propagate distress contagiously both directly within the banking network itself and indirectly, between the network and the external economy. These contagious effects, and the potential events that trigger these effects, can explain most aspects of past crises, and are thought to be likely to dominate future financial crises. Since the current international financial regulatory regime based on the Basel III Accord does a good job of ensuring that banks are resilient to such contagion effects taken one at a time, systemic risk theorists increasingly understand that future crises are likely to be dominated by the spillovers between distinct contagion channels. The present paper aims to provide a model for systemic risk that is comprehensive enough to include the important contagion channels identified in the literature. In such a model one can hope to understand the dangerous spillover effects that are expected to dominate future crises. To rein in the number and complexity of the modelling assumptions, two requirements are imposed, neither of which is yet well-known or established in the main stream of systemic risk research. The first, called stock-flow consistency, demands that the financial system follows a rigorous set of rules based on accounting principles. The second requirement, called asset-liability symmetry, implies that every proposed contagion channel has a dual channel obtained by interchanging assets and liabilities, and that these dual channel pairs have a symmetric mathematical representation.

MSC:

91G99 Actuarial science and mathematical finance

References:

[1] Aldasoro, I.; Faia, E., Systemic loops and liquidity regulation, Journal of Financial Stability, 27, 1-16, (2016)
[2] Amini, H.; Cont, R.; Minca, A., Resilience to contagion in financial networks, Mathematical Finance, 26, 329-365, (2016) · Zbl 1348.91297
[3] Avgouleas, E.; Goodhart, C., Critical reflections on bank bail-ins, Journal of Financial Regulation, 1, 1, 3, (2015)
[4] Bagehot, W., Lombard Street, A Description of the Money Market., (1873), H.S. King, London
[5] Bernanke, B.; Gertler, M.; Gilchrist, S.; Taylor, J. B.; Woodford, M., Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1, The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework, 1341-1393, (1999), Elsevier
[6] M. Bichuch & Z. Feinstein (2018) Optimization of fire sales and borrowing in systemic risk, arXiv.org/pdf/1802.04232.pdf.
[7] R. Bookstaber, M. Paddrik & B. Tivnan (2014) An agent-based model for financial vulnerability, Technical report, Office of Financial Research.
[8] Brunnermeier, M. K.; Pedersen, L. H., Market liquidity and funding liquidity, Review of Financial Studies, 22, 6, 2201-2238, (2009)
[9] Caccioli, F.; Shrestha, M.; Moore, C.; Farmer, J. D., Stability analysis of financial contagion due to overlapping portfolios, Journal of Banking and Finance, 46, 233-245, (2014)
[10] Calomiris, C.; Gorton, G., Financial Markets and Financial Crises, The origins of banking panics: models, facts, and bank regulation, 109-174, (1991), National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
[11] Cifuentes, R.; Ferrucci, G.; Shin, H. S., Liquidity risk and contagion, Journal of the European Economic Association, 5, 556-566, (2005)
[12] R. Cont & E. F. Schaanning (2017) Fire sales, indirect contagion and systemic stress-testing, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2541114.
[13] O. de Bandt & P. Hartmann (2000) Systemic risk: A survey, ECB Working Paper No. 35, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=258430.
[14] De Bandt, O.; Hartmann, P.; Peydró, J. L.; Berger, A. N.; Molyneux, P.; Wilson, J. O. S., The Oxford Handbook of Banking, Systemic risk in banking: an update, (2010), Oxford University Press
[15] N. Detering, T. Meyer-Brandis, K. Panagiotou & D. Ritter (2017) Managing default contagion in inhomogeneous financial networks, arXiv.org/abs/1610.09542v3.
[16] Eisenberg, L.; Noe, T. H., Systemic risk in financial systems, Management Science, 47, 2, 236-249, (2001) · Zbl 1232.91688
[17] Elsinger, H.; Lehar, A.; Summer, M., Risk assessment for banking systems, Management Science, 52, 9, 1301-1314, (2006) · Zbl 1232.91689
[18] Elsinger, H.; Lehar, A.; Summer, M., Using market information for banking system risk assessment, International Journal of Central Banking, 2, 1, 137-166, (2006)
[19] Farmer, J.; Foley, D., The economy needs agent-based modelling, Nature, 460, 685-686, (2009)
[20] Gai, P.; Kapadia, S., Contagion in financial networks, Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 466, 2120, 2401-2423, (2010) · Zbl 1193.91192
[21] Gai, P.; Haldane, A.; Kapadia, S., Complexity, concentration and contagion, Journal of Monetary Economics, 58, 453-470, (2011)
[22] Galati, G.; Moessner, R., Macroprudential policy — A literature review, Journal of Economic Surveys, 27, 5, 846-878, (2013)
[23] Gatti, D.; Desiderio, S.; Gaffeo, E.; Cirillo, P.; Gallegati, M., Macroeconomics from the Bottom-Up., (2011), Springer, Milan · Zbl 1269.91001
[24] Godley, W.; Lavoie, M., Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production and Wealth., (2012), Palgrave Macmillan, UK
[25] Gourieroux, C.; Heam, J. C.; Monfort, A., Bilateral exposures and systemic solvency risk, Canadian Journal of Economics, 45, 1273-1309, (2012)
[26] Greenwood, R.; Landier, A.; Thesmar, D., Vulnerable banks, Journal of Financial Economics, 115, 3, 471-485, (2015)
[27] Hurd, T. R., Contagion! Systemic Risk in Financial Networks, (2016), Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg New York · Zbl 1369.91005
[28] Hurd, T. R.; Cellai, D.; Melnik, S.; Shao, Q. H., Double cascade model of financial crises, International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), 19, 5, 1-27, (2016) · Zbl 1396.91795
[29] A.-C. Hüser, G. Halaj, C. Kok, C. Perales & A. van der Kraaij (2017) The systemic implications of bail-in: A multi-layered network approach, Working Paper Series 2010, ECB.
[30] Kaufman, G. G., Bank contagion: A review of the theory and evidence, Journal of Financial Services Research, 7, 123-150, (1994)
[31] Kaufman, G. G.; Scott, K. E., What is systemic risk, and do bank regulators retard or contribute to it?, Independent Review, 7, 3, 371-91, (2003)
[32] Kindleberger, C.; Aliber, R., Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, Sixth Edition., (2011), Palgrave Macmillan
[33] Lee, S. H., Systemic liquidity shortages and interbank network structures, Journal of Financial Stability, 9, 1, 1-12, (2013)
[34] X. Liu (2016) Interbank market freezes and creditor runs, Review of Financial Studies.
[35] Minsky, H. P.; Kindleberger, C.; Laffargue, J.-P., Financial Crises: Theory, History, and Policy, The financial-instability hypothesis: capitalist processes and the behaviour of the economy, 13-39, (1982), Cambridge University Press
[36] Nier, E.; Yang, J.; Yorulmazer, T.; Alentorn, A., Network models and financial stability, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31, 2033-2060, (2007) · Zbl 1201.91245
[37] J.-C. Rochet & X. Vives (2004) Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort: Was Bagehot Right After All? IDEI Working Papers 294, Institut d’Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, https://ideas.repec.org/p/ide/wpaper/644.html.
[38] Rogers, L. C. G.; Veraart, L. A. M., Failure and rescue in an interbank network, Management Science, 59, 882-898, (2013)
[39] Shleifer, A.; Vishny, R. W., Liquidation values and debt capacity: A market equilibrium approach, The Journal of Finance, 47, 4, 1343-1366, (1992)
[40] Taylor, J. B.; Scott, K. E.; Shultz, G. P.; Taylor, J. B., Ending Government Bailouts As We Know Them, Defining systemic risk operationally, (2010), Hoover Institution, Stanford University
[41] Upper, C., Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets, Journal of Financial Stability, 7, 3, 111-125, (2011)
[42] Watts, D. J., A simple model of global cascades on random networks, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99, 9, 5766-5771, (2002) · Zbl 1022.90001
[43] Weber, S.; Weske, K., The joint impact of bankruptcy costs, fire sales and cross-holdings on systemic risk in financial networks, Probability, Uncertainty and Quantitative Risk, 2, 9, 9, (2017)
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.