×

Irreversible investments and ambiguity aversion. (English) Zbl 1415.91305

Summary: Real option valuation has traditionally been concerned with investment under project value uncertainty while assuming that the agent has perfect confidence in a specific model. However, agents do not generally have perfect confidence in their model and this ambiguity may affect their decisions. In addition, the value of real investments is not typically fully spanned by tradable assets because markets are incomplete as is typically the case in energy and commodities. In this paper, we account for the agent’s aversion to model ambiguity and address market incompleteness through the notion of robust indifference prices. We derive analytical results for the perpetual option to invest and the linear complementarity problem that the finite-time version of this problem satisfies. Ambiguity aversion has a number of effects on decision making some of which cannot be explained by altering the agent’s risk aversion. For example, ambiguity averse agents are found to exercise real options both earlier and later than their ambiguity neutral counterparts, depending on whether ambiguity stems from uncertainty in the dynamics of the project value or the dynamics of a hedging asset.

MSC:

91G50 Corporate finance (dividends, real options, etc.)
93E20 Optimal stochastic control
Full Text: DOI

References:

[1] Anderson, E. W., Hansen, L. P. & Sargent, T. J. (2003) A quartet of semigroups for model specification, robustness, prices of risk, and model detection, Journal of the European Economic Association1 (1), 68-123.
[2] Cartea, Á. & González-Pedraz, C. (2012) How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach, Energy Economics34 (1), 14-30.
[3] Cartea, Á., Jaimungal, S. & Qin, Z. (2016) Model uncertainty in commodity markets, SIAM Journal of Financial Mathematics7 (1), 1-33. · Zbl 1330.91179
[4] Dahlgren, E. & Leung, T. (2015) An optimal multiple stopping approach to infrastructure investment decisions, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control53, 251-267. · Zbl 1401.91575
[5] Davis, M., (1997) Option pricing in incomplete markets, In: Mathematics of Derivative Securities (Dempster, M. & Pliska, S., eds.), 216-227. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. · Zbl 0914.90017
[6] Dixit, A. & Pindyck, R. (1994) Investment under Uncertainty, first edition. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
[7] Duffie, D. & Epstein, L. G. (1992) Asset pricing with stochastic differential utility, The Review of Financial Studies5 (3), 411-436.
[8] Grasselli, M. (2011) Getting real with real options: A utility-based approach for finite-time investment in incomplete markets, Journal of Business Finance & Accounting38 (5-6), 740-764.
[9] Henderson, V. (2007) Valuing the option to invest in an incomplete market, Mathematics and Financial Economics1 (2), 103-128. · Zbl 1268.91167
[10] Hugonnier, J. & Morellec, E. (2007) Corporate control and real investment in incomplete markets, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control31 (5), 1781-1800. · Zbl 1201.91218
[11] Jaimungal, S. & Lawryshyn, Y. (2015) Incorporating managerial information into real option valuation. In: Commodities, Energy and Environmental Finance, Volume 74 of Fields Institute Communications (Aïd, R., Ludkovski, M. & Sircar, R., eds.), 213-238. New York: Springer.
[12] Jaimungal, S. & Sigloch, G. (2012) Incorporating risk and ambiguity aversion into a hybrid model of default, Mathematical Finance22 (1), 57-81. · Zbl 1278.91176
[13] Maenhout, P. J. (2004) Robust portfolio rules and asset pricing, The Review of Financial Studies17 (4), 951-983.
[14] McDonald, R. & Siegel, D. (1986) The value of waiting to invest, Quarterly Journal of Economics101 (4), 707-728.
[15] Miao, J. & Wang, N. (2007) Investment, consumption, and hedging under incomplete markets, Journal of Financial Economics86 (3), 608-642.
[16] Miao, J. & Wang, N. (2011) Risk, uncertainty, and option exercise, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control35 (4), 442-461. · Zbl 1211.91096
[17] Nishimura, K. G. & Ozaki, H. (2007) Irreversible investment and Knightian uncertainty, Journal of Economic Theory136 (1), 668-694. · Zbl 1281.91061
[18] D. Roubaud, A. Lapied & R. Kast (2010) Real options under Choquet-Brownian ambiguity. Working papers, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier.
[19] Rouge, R. & El Karoui, N. (2000) Pricing via utility maximization and entropy, Mathematical Finance10 (2), 259-276. · Zbl 1052.91512
[20] Trojanowska, M. & Kort, P. M. (2010) The worst case for real options, Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications146 (3), 709-734. · Zbl 1208.91156
[21] Uppal, R. & Wang, T. (2003) Model misspecification and underdiversification, The Journal of Finance58 (6), 2465-2486.
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.