×

On confidence intervals for autoregressive roots and predictive regression. (English) Zbl 1410.62068

Summary: Local to unity limit theory is used in applications to construct confidence intervals (CIs) for autoregressive roots through inversion of a unit root test [J. H. Stock, “Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series”, J. Monetary Econ. 28, No. 3, 435–459 (1991; doi:10.1016/0304-3932(91)90034-L)]. Such CIs are asymptotically valid when the true model has an autoregressive root that is local to unity \((\rho = 1 + \tfrac{c}{n})\), but are shown here to be invalid at the limits of the domain of definition of the localizing coefficient \(c\) because of a failure in tightness and the escape of probability mass. Failure at the boundary implies that these CIs have zero asymptotic coverage probability in the stationary case and vicinities of unity that are wider than \(O(n^{-1/3})\). The inversion methods of B. E. Hansen [“The grid bootstrap and the autoregressive model”, Rev. Econ. Stat. 81, No. 4, 594–607 (1999; doi:10.1162/003465399558463)] and A. Mikusheva [Econometrica 75, No. 5, 1411–1452 (2007; Zbl 1133.91046)] are asymptotically valid in such cases. Implications of these results for predictive regression tests are explored. When the predictive regressor is stationary, the popular J. Y. Campbell and M. Yogo [“”, J. Finance Econ. 81, No. 1, 27–60 (2006; doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.05.008)] CIs for the regression coefficient have zero coverage probability asymptotically, and their predictive test statistic \(Q\) erroneously indicates predictability with probability approaching unity when the null of no predictability holds. These results have obvious cautionary implications for the use of the procedures in empirical practice.

MSC:

62G15 Nonparametric tolerance and confidence regions
62J02 General nonlinear regression
62G20 Asymptotic properties of nonparametric inference

Citations:

Zbl 1133.91046
Full Text: DOI

References:

[1] Campbell , J. , and M.Yogo ( 2006 ): “ Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability ,” Journal of Financial Economics , 81 ( 1 ), 27 - 60 . DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.05.008
[2] Cavanagh , C. , G.Elliott , and J. H.Stock ( 1995 ): “ Inference in Models With Nearly Integrated Regressors ,” Econometric Theory , 11 ( 05 ), 1131 - 1147 . DOI: 10.1017/S0266466600009981
[3] Elliott , G. , and J. H.Stock ( 2001 ): “ Confidence Intervals for Autoregressive Coefficients Near One ,” Journal of Econometrics , 103 , 155 - 181 . DOI: 10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00042-2 · Zbl 0969.62058
[4] Elliott , G. , U. K.Müller , and M. W.Watson ( 2012 ): “ Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Under the Null Hypothesis ,” Working Paper , UCSD .
[5] Giraitis , L. , and P. C. B.Phillips ( 2006 ): “ Uniform Limit Theory for Stationary Autoregression ,” Journal of Time Series Analysis , 27 , 51 - 60 . DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9892.2005.00452.x · Zbl 1114.62087
[6] Hansen , B. E. ( 1999 ): “ The Grid Bootstrap and the Autoregressive Model ,” Review of Economics and Statistics , 81 , 594 - 607 . DOI: 10.1162/003465399558463
[7] Jansson , M. , and M. J.Moreira ( 2006 ): “ Optimal Inference in Regression Models With Nearly Integrated Time Series ,” Econometrica , 74 , 681 - 714 . DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00679.x · Zbl 1128.62070
[8] Kasparis , I. , E.Andreou , and P. C. B.Phillips ( 2012 ): “ Nonparametric Predictive Regression ,” Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper 1878 , Yale University .
[9] Kostakis , A. , A.Magdalinos , and M.Stamatogiannis ( 2012 ): “ Robust Econometric Inference for Stock Return Predictability ,” Unpublished Manuscript , University of Nottingham .
[10] Magdalinos , T. , and P. C. B.Phillips ( 2009 ): “ Econometric Inference in the Vicinity of Unity ,” Working Paper , Yale University .
[11] Mikusheva , A. ( 2007 ): “ Uniform Inference in Autoregressive Models ,” Econometrica , 75 , 1411 - 1452 . DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00798.x · Zbl 1133.91046
[12] Mikusheva , A. ( 2014 ): “ Second Order Expansion of the t‐Statistic in AR(1) Models ,” Econometric Theory ( forthcoming ).
[13] Phillips , P. C. B. ( 1987 ): “ Towards a Unified Asymptotic Theory for Autoregression ,” Biometrika , 74 , 535 - 547 . DOI: 10.1093/biomet/74.3.535 · Zbl 0654.62073
[14] Phillips , P. C. B. , and B. E.Hansen ( 1990 ): “ Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression With I(1) Processes ,” Review of Economic Studies , 57 , 99 - 125 . DOI: 10.2307/2297545 · Zbl 0703.62098
[15] Phillips , P. C. B. , and J. H.Lee ( 2013 ): “ Predictive Regression Under Various Degrees of Persistence and Robust Long‐Horizon Regression ,” Journal of Econometrics , 177 , 250 - 264 . DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.04.011 · Zbl 1288.62131
[16] Phillips , P. C. B. , and T.Magdalinos ( 2007 ): “ Limit Theory for Moderate Deviations From a Unit Root ,” Journal of Econometrics , 136 , 115 - 130 . DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2005.08.002 · Zbl 1418.62348
[17] Phillips , P. C. B. , and V.Solo ( 1992 ): “ Asymptotics for Linear Processes ,” The Annals of Statistics , 20 , 971 - 1001 . DOI: 10.1214/aos/1176348666 · Zbl 0759.60021
[18] Phillips , P. C. B. , T.Magdalinos , and L.Giraitis ( 2010 ): “ Smoothing Local‐to‐Moderate Unit Root Theory ,” Journal of Econometrics , 158 , 274 - 279 . DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2010.01.009 · Zbl 1431.62413
[19] Stock , J. H. ( 1991 ): “ Confidence Intervals for the Largest Autoregressive Root in US Macroeconomic Time Series ,” Journal of Monetary Economics , 28 ( 3 ), 435 - 459 . DOI: 10.1016/0304-3932(91)90034-L
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.