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Bretó, Carles

Modeling and inference for infectious disease dynamics: a likelihood-based approach. (English) Zbl 1407.62397

Stat. Sci. 33, No. 1, 57-69 (2018).
Summary: Likelihood-based statistical inference has been considered in most scientific fields involving stochastic modeling. This includes infectious disease dynamics, where scientific understanding can help capture biological processes in so-called mechanistic models and their likelihood functions. However, when the likelihood of such mechanistic models lacks a closed-form expression, computational burdens are substantial. In this context, algorithmic advances have facilitated likelihood maximization, promoting the study of novel data-motivated mechanistic models over the last decade. Reviewing these models is the focus of this paper. In particular, we highlight statistical aspects of these models like overdispersion, which is key in the interface between nonlinear infectious disease modeling and data analysis. We also point out potential directions for further model exploration.

Cited in 8 Documents

MSC:

62P10 Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis
62M10 Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH)
92C60 Medical epidemiology

Keywords:

maximum likelihood; iterated filtering; particle filter; compartment model; Lévy-driven stochastic differential equation; continuous-time Markov chain; environmental stochasticity

Software:

pomp
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Full Text: DOI Euclid

References:

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