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Regime-switching stochastic volatility model: estimation and calibration to VIX options. (English) Zbl 1398.91593

Summary: We develop and implement a method for maximum likelihood estimation of a regime-switching stochastic volatility model. Our model uses a continuous time stochastic process for the stock dynamics with the instantaneous variance driven by a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process and each parameter modulated by a hidden Markov chain. We propose an extension of the EM algorithm through the Baum-Welch implementation to estimate our model and filter the hidden state of the Markov chain while using the VIX index to invert the latent volatility state. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we test the convergence of our algorithm and compare it with an approximate likelihood procedure where the volatility state is replaced by the VIX index. We found that our method is more accurate than the approximate procedure. Then, we apply Fourier methods to derive a semi-analytical expression of S&P500 and VIX option prices, which we calibrate to market data. We show that the model is sufficiently rich to encapsulate important features of the joint dynamics of the stock and the volatility and to consistently fit option market prices.

MSC:

91G20 Derivative securities (option pricing, hedging, etc.)
62P05 Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics
62M20 Inference from stochastic processes and prediction
91G60 Numerical methods (including Monte Carlo methods)
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References:

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