×

Merging simulation and projection approaches to solve high-dimensional problems with an application to a New Keynesian model. (English) Zbl 1396.91539

Summary: We introduce a numerical algorithm for solving dynamic economic models that merges stochastic simulation and projection approaches: we use simulation to approximate the ergodic measure of the solution, we cover the support of the constructed ergodic measure with a fixed grid, and we use projection techniques to accurately solve the model on that grid. The construction of the grid is the key novel piece of our analysis: we replace a large cloud of simulated points with a small set of “representative” points. We present three alternative techniques for constructing representative points: a clustering method, an \(\varepsilon\)-distinguishable set method, and a locally-adaptive variant of the \(\varepsilon\)-distinguishable set method. As an illustration, we solve one- and multi-agent neoclassical growth models and a large-scale new Keynesian model with a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. The proposed solution algorithm is tractable in problems with high dimensionality (hundreds of state variables) on a desktop computer.

MSC:

91B64 Macroeconomic theory (monetary models, models of taxation)
Full Text: DOI

References:

[1] Adam, K. and R.Billi (2006), “Optimal monetary policy under commitment with a zero bound on nominal interest rates.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 38 (7), 1877-1905. 10.1353/mcb.2006.0089
[2] Adda, J. and R.Cooper (2003), Dynamic Economics: Quantitative Methods and Applications. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts and London, England.
[3] Adjemian, S., H.Bastani, M.Juillard, F.Mihoubi, G.Perendia, M.Ratto, and S.Villemot (2011), “Dynare: Reference manual, version 4.” Dynare Working Papers 1, CEPREMAP.
[4] Adjemian, S. and M.Juillard (2011), “Accuracy of the extended path simulation method in a new Keynesian model with zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate.” Manuscript.
[5] Anderson, G., J.Kim, and T.Yun (2010), “Using a projection method to analyze inflation bias in a micro‐founded model.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 34 (9), 1572-1581. 10.1016/j.jedc.2010.06.024 · Zbl 1231.91335
[6] Aruoba, S., J.Fernández‐Villaverde, and J.Rubio‐Ramírez (2006), “Comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 30, 2477-2508. 10.1016/j.jedc.2005.07.008 · Zbl 1162.91468
[7] Aruoba, S. and F.Schorfheide (2014), “Macroeconomic dynamics near ZLB: A tale of two countries.” PIER Working Paper 14‐035.
[8] Baryshnikov, Y., P.Eichelbacker, T.Schreiber, and J. E.Yukich (2008), “Moderate deviations for some point measures in geometric probability.” Annales de l’Institut Henri Poincaré—Probabilités et Statistiques, 44, 422-446. 10.1214/07‐AIHP137 · Zbl 1175.60015
[9] Benhabib, J., S.Schmitt‐Grohé, and M.Uribe (2001a), “Monetary policy and multiple equilibria.” American Economic Review, 91 (1), 167-186. 10.1257/aer.91.1.167
[10] Benhabib, J., S.Schmitt‐Grohé, and M.Uribe (2001b), “The perils of Taylor rules.” Journal of Economic Theory, 96, 40-69. 10.1006/jeth.1999.2585 · Zbl 0981.91042
[11] Bertsekas, D. and J.Tsitsiklis (1996), Neuro‐Dynamic Programming. Optimization and Neural Computation Series. Athena Scientific, Belmont, Massachusetts. · Zbl 0924.68163
[12] Braun, R. A., L. M.Körber, and Y.Waki (2012), “Some unpleasent properties of log‐linearized solutions when the nominal rate is zero.” Working paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
[13] Brumm, J. and S.Scheidegger (2013), “Using adaptive sparse grids to solve high‐dimensional dynamic models.” Manuscript, University of Zurich.
[14] Christiano, L., M.Eichenbaum, and C.Evans (2005), “Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy.” Journal of Political Economy, 113 (1), 1-45. 10.1086/426038
[15] Christiano, L., M.Eichenbaum, and S.Rebelo (2011), “When is the government spending multiplier large?” Journal of Political Economy, 119 (1), 78-121. 10.1086/659312
[16] Christiano, L. and D.Fisher (2000), “Algorithms for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 24, 1179-1232. 10.1016/S0165‐1889(99)00016‐0 · Zbl 0951.90048
[17] Chung, H., J.‐P.Laforte, D.Reifschneider, and J.Williams (2011), “Have we underestimated the probability of hitting the zero lower bound?” Working Paper 2011‐01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
[18] Coibion, O., Y.Gorodnichenko, and J.Wieland (2012), “The optimal inflation rate in new Keynesian models: Should central banks raise their inflation targets in light of the zero lower bound.” Manuscript. · Zbl 1405.91432
[19] Del Negro, M., F.Schorfheide, F.Smets, and R.Wouters (2007), “On the fit of new Keynesian models.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 25 (2), 123-143. 10.1198/073500107000000016
[20] Den Haan, W. (1990), “The optimal inflation path in a Sidrauski‐type model with uncertainty.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 25, 389-409. 10.1016/0304‐3932(90)90060‐H
[21] Den Haan, W. (2010), “Comparison of solutions to the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 34, 4-27. 10.1016/j.jedc.2008.12.010 · Zbl 1179.91012
[22] Den Haan, W. and A.Marcet (1990), “Solving the stochastic growth model by parameterized expectations.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 8, 31-34.
[23] Den Haan, W. and A.Marcet (1994), “Accuracy in simulations.” Review of Economic Studies, 61, 3-18. 10.2307/2297873 · Zbl 0800.62822
[24] Everitt, B., S.Landau, M.Leese, and D.Stahl (2011), Cluster Analysis. Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics. Wiley, Chichester. 10.1002/9780470977811 · Zbl 1274.62003
[25] Fair, R. and J.Taylor (1983), “Solution and maximum likelihood estimation of dynamic non‐linear rational expectation models.” Econometrica, 51, 1169-1185. 10.2307/1912057 · Zbl 0516.62097
[26] Feng, Z., J.Miao, A.Peralta‐Alva, and M.Santos (2014), “Numerical simulation of nonoptimal dynamic equilibrium models.” International Economic Review, 55 (1), 83-110. 10.1111/iere.12042 · Zbl 1292.91123
[27] Fernández‐Villaverde, J., G.Gordon, P.Guerrón‐Quintana, and J.Rubio‐Ramírez (2012), “Nonlinear adventures at the zero lower bound.” Working Paper 18058, NBER.
[28] Fernández‐Villaverde, J. and J.Rubio‐Ramírez (2007), “Estimating macroeconomic models: A likelihood approach.” Review of Economic Studies, 74, 1059-1087. 10.1111/j.1467‐937X.2007.00437.x · Zbl 1206.91064
[29] Galí, J. (2008), Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Business Cycles: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey.
[30] Gaspar, J. and K.Judd (1997), “Solving large‐scale rational‐expectations models.” Macroeconomic Dynamics, 1, 45-75. 10.1017/S1365100597002022 · Zbl 0915.90057
[31] Gavion, W. T., B. D.Keen, A. W.Richter, and N. A.Throckmorton (2013), “Global dynamics at the zero lower bound.” Working Paper 2013‐007B, Federal Reserve Board St. Louis.
[32] Gust, C., D.Lopez‐Salido, and M. E.Smith (2012), “The empirical implications of the interest‐rate lower bound.” Manuscript, Federal Reserve Board.
[33] Hughes, T. (1987), The Finite Element Method: Linear Static and Dynamic Finite Element Analysis. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliff, New Jersey. · Zbl 0634.73056
[34] Judd, K. (1992), “Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models.” Journal of Economic Theory, 58, 410-452. 10.1016/0022‐0531(92)90061‐L · Zbl 0769.90016
[35] Judd, K. (1998), Numerical Methods in Economics. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. · Zbl 0924.65001
[36] Judd, K., L.Maliar, and S.Maliar (2010), “A cluster grid projection method: Solving problems with high dimensionality.” Working Paper 15965, NBER.
[37] Judd, K., L.Maliar, and S.Maliar (2011a), “Numerically stable and accurate stochastic simulation approaches for solving dynamic models.” Quantitative Economics, 2, 173-210. 10.3982/QE14 · Zbl 1226.91035
[38] Judd, K., L.Maliar, and S.Maliar (2011b), “A cluster grid projection algorithm: Solving problems with high dimensionality.” Manuscript. Available at http://stanford.edu/˜maliarl.
[39] Judd, K., L.Maliar, and S.Maliar (2012), “Merging simulation and projection approaches to solve high‐dimensional problems.” Working Paper 18501, NBER.
[40] Judd, K., L.Maliar, S.Maliar, and R.Valero (2014), “Smolyak method for solving dynamic economic models: Lagrange interpolation, anisotropic grid and adaptive domain.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 44, 92-123. 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.03.003 · Zbl 1402.91368
[41] Kiefer, J. (1961), “On large deviations of the empiric D.F. of vector change variables and a law of the iterated logarithm.” Pacific Journal of Mathematics, 11, 649-660. 10.2140/pjm.1961.11.649 · Zbl 0119.34904
[42] Kollmann, R. (2002), “Monetary policy rules in the open economy: Effects on welfare and business cycles.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 989-1015. 10.1016/S0304‐3932(02)00132‐0
[43] Kollmann, R., S.Maliar, B.Malin, and P.Pichler (2011), “Comparison of solutions to the multi‐country real business cycle model.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35, 186-202. 10.1016/j.jedc.2010.09.013 · Zbl 1231.91365
[44] Krueger, D. and F.Kubler (2004), “Computing equilibrium in OLG models with production.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 28, 1411-1436. 10.1016/S0165‐1889(03)00111‐8 · Zbl 1200.91174
[45] Krusell, P. and A.Smith (1998), “Income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy.” Journal of Political Economy, 106, 868-896.
[46] Ma, X. and N.Zabaras (2009), “An adaptive hierarchical sparse grid collocation algorithm for the solution of stochastic differential equations.” Journal of Computational Physics, 228, 3084-3113. 10.1016/j.jcp.2009.01.006 · Zbl 1161.65006
[47] Maliar, L. and S.Maliar (2005), “Solving non‐linear stochastic growth models: Iterating on value function by simulations.” Economics Letters, 87, 135-140. 10.1016/j.econlet.2004.10.009 · Zbl 1254.90002
[48] Maliar, L. and S.Maliar (2014), “Numerical methods for large scale dynamic economic models.” In Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 3 (K.Schmedders (ed.) and K.Judd (ed.), eds.), 325-477, Elsevier Science, Amsterdam.
[49] Maliar, S., L.Maliar, and K.Judd (2011), “Solving the multi‐country real business cycle model using ergodic set methods.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35, 207-228. 10.1016/j.jedc.2010.09.014 · Zbl 1232.91540
[50] Maliar, S., L.Maliar, J.Taylor, and I.Tsener (2014), “A tractable framework for analyzing nonstationary and unbalanced growth models.” Manuscript.
[51] Malin, B., D.Krueger, and F.Kubler (2011), “Solving the multi‐country real business cycle model using a Smolyak‐collocation method.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35, 229-239. 10.1016/j.jedc.2010.09.015 · Zbl 1231.91366
[52] Marcet, A. (1988), “Solving non‐linear models by parameterizing expectations.” Unpublished manuscript, Carnegie Mellon University, Graduate School of Industrial Administration.
[53] Marcet, A. and G.Lorenzoni (1999), “The parameterized expectation approach: Some practical issues.” In Computational Methods for Study of Dynamic Economies (R.Marimon (ed.) and A.Scott (ed.), eds.), 143-171, Oxford University Press, New York.
[54] Marcet, A. and T.Sargent (1989), “Convergence of least‐squares learning in environments with hidden state variables and private information.” Journal of Political Economy, 97, 1306-1322. 10.1086/261655
[55] Marimon, R. and A.Scott (1999), Computational Methods for Study of Dynamic Economies. Oxford University Press, New York.
[56] McGrattan, E. (1996), “Solving the stochastic growth model with a finite element method.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 20, 19-42. 10.1016/0165‐1889(94)00842‐0 · Zbl 0875.90139
[57] Mertens, K. and M.Ravn (2011), “Credit channels in a liquidity trap.” Discussion Paper 8322, CEPR.
[58] Mertens, K. and M.Ravn (2013), “Fiscal policy in an expectations driven liquidity trap.” Manuscript, Cornell University.
[59] Niederreiter, H. (1992), Random Number Generation and Quasi‐Monte Carlo Methods. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. 10.1137/1.9781611970081 · Zbl 0761.65002
[60] Pakes, A. and P.McGuire (2001), “Stochastic algorithms, symmetric Markov perfect equilibria, and the ‘curse’ of dimensionality.” Econometrica, 69, 1261-1281. 10.1111/1468‐0262.00241 · Zbl 1022.91044
[61] Pichler, P. (2011), “Solving the multi‐country real business cycle model using a monomial rule Galerkin method.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35, 240-251. 10.1016/j.jedc.2010.09.009 · Zbl 1231.91321
[62] Powell, W. (2011), Approximate Dynamic Programming. Wiley, Hoboken, New Jersey. 10.1002/9781118029176 · Zbl 1242.90002
[63] Ravenna, F. and C.Walsh (2011), “Welfare‐based optimal monetary policy with unemployment and sticky prices: A linear‐quadratic framework.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 3, 130-162.
[64] Rényi, A. (1958), “On a one‐dimensional space‐filling problem.” Publication of the Mathematical Institute of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, 3, 109-127. · Zbl 0105.11903
[65] Richter, A. W. and N. A.Throckmorton (2013), “The zero lower bound: Frequency, duration, and determinacy.” Manuscript.
[66] Rudebusch, G. and E.Swanson (2008), “Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 55, S111-S126. 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2008.07.007
[67] Rust, J. (1997), “Using randomization to break the curse of dimensionality.” Econometrica, 65, 487-516. 10.2307/2171751 · Zbl 0872.90107
[68] Santos, M. (1999), “Numerical solution of dynamic economic models.” In Handbook of Macroeconomics (J.Taylor (ed.) and M.Woodford (ed.), eds.), 312-382, Elsevier Science, Amsterdam.
[69] Santos, M. (2000), “Accuracy of numerical solutions using the Euler equation residuals.” Econometrica, 68, 1377-1402. 10.1111/1468‐0262.00165 · Zbl 1020.91010
[70] Santos, M. S. and A.Peralta‐Alva (2005), “Accuracy of simulations for stochastic dynamic models.” Econometrica, 73, 1939-1976. 10.1111/j.1468‐0262.2005.00642.x · Zbl 1152.91684
[71] Schmitt‐Grohé, S. and M.Uribe (2007), “Optimal simple and implementable monetary fiscal rules.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 54, 1702-1725. 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.07.002
[72] Schmitt‐Grohé, S. and M.Uribe (2012), “The making of a great contraction with a liquidity trap and a jobless recovery.” Manuscript, Columbia University.
[73] Scott, D. and S.Sain (2005), “Multidimensional density estimation.” In Handbook of Statistics, Vol. 24 (C.Rao (ed.), E.Wegman (ed.), and J.Solka (ed.), eds.), 229-261, Elsevier B. V., Amsterdam. · Zbl 1093.62007
[74] Smets, F. and R.Wouters (2003), “An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Euro area.” Journal of the European Economic Association, 1 (5), 1123-1175. 10.1162/154247603770383415
[75] Smets, F. and R.Wouters (2007), “Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: A Bayesian DSGE approach.” American Economic Review, 97 (3), 586-606. 10.1257/aer.97.3.586
[76] Smith, A. (1993), “Estimating non‐linear time‐series models using simulated vector autoregressions.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8, S63-S84. 10.1002/jae.3950080506
[77] Stachursky, J. (2009), Economic Dynamics: Theory and Computations. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. · Zbl 1163.91300
[78] Stokey, N. L., R. E.LucasJr., and E. C.Prescott (1989), Recursive Methods in Economic Dynamics. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. · Zbl 0774.90018
[79] Tauchen, G. and R.Hussey (1991), “Quadrature‐based methods for obtaining approximate solutions to non‐linear asset pricing models.” Econometrica, 59, 371-396. 10.2307/2938261 · Zbl 0735.90012
[80] Taylor, J. (1993), “Discretion versus policy rules in practice.” Carnegie‐Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195-214. 10.1016/0167‐2231(93)90009‐L
[81] Taylor, J. and H.Uhlig (1990), “Solving non‐linear stochastic growth models: A comparison of alternative solution methods.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 8, 1-17.
[82] Temlyakov, V. (2011), Greedy Approximation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 10.1017/CBO9780511762291 · Zbl 1279.41001
[83] Weintraub, G. Y., C. L.Benkard, and R.Van Roy (2008), “Markov perfect industry dynamics with many firms.” Econometrica, 76 (6), 1375-1411. 10.3982/ECTA6158 · Zbl 1154.91346
[84] Winschel, V. and M.Krätzig (2010), “Solving, estimating and selecting non‐linear dynamic models without the curse of dimensionality.” Econometrica, 78 (2), 803-821. 10.3982/ECTA6297 · Zbl 1229.91210
[85] Wright, B. and J.Williams (1984), “The welfare effects of the introduction of storage.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 99, 169-192. 10.2307/1885726
[86] Woodford, M. (2003), Interest and Prices. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey.
[87] Zhao, O. and M.Woodroofe (2008), “Law of the iterated logarithm for stationary processes.” The Annals of Probability, 36 (1), 127-142. 10.1214/009117907000000079 · Zbl 1130.60039
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.