×

Binary hidden Markov models and varieties. (English) Zbl 1346.13057

Summary: This paper closely examines HMMs in which all the hidden random variables are binary. Its main contributions are (1) a birational parametrization for every such HMM, with an explicit inverse for recovering the hidden parameters in terms of observables, (2) a semialgebraic model membership test for every such HMM, and (3) minimal defining equations for the 4-node fully binary model, comprising 21 quadrics and 29 cubics, which were computed using Gröbner bases in the cumulant coordinates of Sturmfels and Zwiernik. The new model parameters in (1) are rationally identifiable in the sense of L. García-Puente, S. Spielvogel and S. Sullivant[“Identifying causal effects with computer algebra”, in: Proceedings of the 26th Conference of Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence. Corvallis, Oregon: AUAI Press. 193–200 (2010)], and each model’s Zariski closure is therefore a rational projective variety of dimension 5. Gröbner basis computations for the model and its graph are found to be considerably faster using these parameters. In the case of two hidden states, item (2) supersedes a previous algorithm of Schönhuth which is only generically defined, and the defining equations (3) yield new invariants for HMMs of all lengths \(\geq 4\). Such invariants have been used successfully in model selection problems in phylogenetics, and one can hope for similar applications in the case of HMMs.

MSC:

13P10 Gröbner bases; other bases for ideals and modules (e.g., Janet and border bases)
60J22 Computational methods in Markov chains
14E05 Rational and birational maps
14E08 Rationality questions in algebraic geometry
14P10 Semialgebraic sets and related spaces
14Q15 Computational aspects of higher-dimensional varieties
62M02 Markov processes: hypothesis testing
62M05 Markov processes: estimation; hidden Markov models