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Model-based clustering of categorical time series. (English) Zbl 1330.62256

Summary: Two approaches for model-based clustering of categorical time series based on time-homogeneous first-order Markov chains are discussed. For Markov chain clustering the individual transition probabilities are fixed to a group-specific transition matrix. In a new approach called Dirichlet multinomial clustering the rows of the individual transition matrices deviate from the group mean and follow a Dirichlet distribution with unknown group-specific hyperparameters. Estimation is carried out through Markov chain Monte Carlo. Various well-known clustering criteria are applied to select the number of groups. An application to a panel of Austrian wage mobility data leads to an interesting segmentation of the Austrian labor market.

MSC:

62H30 Classification and discrimination; cluster analysis (statistical aspects)
62M10 Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH)
65C60 Computational problems in statistics (MSC2010)
60J22 Computational methods in Markov chains
62P20 Applications of statistics to economics
91B82 Statistical methods; economic indices and measures