×

Mechanism-based emulation of dynamic simulation models: concept and application in hydrology. (English) Zbl 1328.62034

Summary: Many model-based investigation techniques, such as sensitivity analysis, optimization, and statistical inference, require a large number of model evaluations to be performed at different input and/or parameter values. This limits the application of these techniques to models that can be implemented in computationally efficient computer codes. Emulators, by providing efficient interpolation between outputs of deterministic simulation models, can considerably extend the field of applicability of such computationally demanding techniques. So far, the dominant techniques for developing emulators have been priors in the form of Gaussian stochastic processes (GASP) that were conditioned with a design data set of inputs and corresponding model outputs. In the context of dynamic models, this approach has two essential disadvantages: (i) these emulators do not consider our knowledge of the structure of the model, and (ii) they run into numerical difficulties if there are a large number of closely spaced input points as is often the case in the time dimension of dynamic models. To address both of these problems, a new concept of developing emulators for dynamic models is proposed. This concept is based on a prior that combines a simplified linear state space model of the temporal evolution of the dynamic model with Gaussian stochastic processes for the innovation terms as functions of model parameters and/or inputs. These innovation terms are intended to correct the error of the linear model at each output step. Conditioning this prior to the design data set is done by Kalman smoothing. This leads to an efficient emulator that, due to the consideration of our knowledge about dominant mechanisms built into the simulation model, can be expected to outperform purely statistical emulators at least in cases in which the design data set is small. The feasibility and potential difficulties of the proposed approach are demonstrated by the application to a simple hydrological model.

MSC:

62-07 Data analysis (statistics) (MSC2010)
65C60 Computational problems in statistics (MSC2010)
62P12 Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics

Software:

BayesDA
Full Text: DOI

References:

[1] Bayarri, M. J.; Berger, J. O.; Cafeo, J.; Garcia-Donato, G.; Liu, F.; Palomo, J.; Parthasarathy, R. J.; Paulo, R.; Sacks, J.; Walsh, D., Computer model validation with functional output, The Annals of Statistics, 35, 1874-1906 (2007) · Zbl 1144.62368
[2] Bayarri, M. J.; Berger, J. O.; Paulo, R.; Sacks, J.; Cafeo, J. A.; Cavendish, J.; Lin, C. H.; Tu, J., A framework for validation of computer models, Technometrics, 49, 138-154 (2007)
[3] Bhattacharya, S., A simulation approach to Bayesian emulation of complex dynamic computer models, Bayesian Analysis, 2, 783-816 (2007) · Zbl 1331.65019
[4] Conti, S.; Gosling, J. P.; Oakley, J.; O’Hagan, A., Gaussian process emulation of dynamic computer codes, Biometrika, 96, 663-676 (2009) · Zbl 1437.62015
[5] Craig, P. S.; Goldstein, M.; Rougier, J. C.; Seheult, A. H., Bayesian forecasting for complex systems using computer simulators, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96, 717-729 (2001) · Zbl 1017.62019
[6] Currin, C.; Mitchell, T.; Morris, M.; Ylvisaker, D., Bayesian prediction of deterministic functions, with application to the design and analysis of computer experiments, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 86, 953-963 (1991)
[7] Gamerman, D., Markov Chain Monte Carlo — Statistical Simulation for Bayesian Inference (2006), Chapman & Hall: Chapman & Hall London · Zbl 1137.62011
[8] Gelman, A.; Carlin, J. B.; Stern, H. S.; Rubin, D. B., Bayesian Data Analysis (2004), Chapman & Hall: Chapman & Hall London · Zbl 1039.62018
[9] Higdon, D.; Gattiker, J.; WWilliams, B.; Rightley, M., Computer model validation using high-dimensional ouputs, (Bernado, J.; Bayarri, M. J.; Berger, J. O.; Dawid, A. P.; Heckerman, D.; Smith, A. F.M.; West, M., Bayesian Statistics 8 (2007), Oxford University Press: Oxford University Press Oxford)
[10] Kavetski, D.; Franks, S. W.; Kuczera, G., Confronting input uncertainty in environmental modelling, (Duan, Q.; Gupta, H. V.; Sorooshian, S.; Rousseau, A. N.; Turcotte, R., Calibration of Watershed Models (2003), American Geophysical Union: American Geophysical Union Washington, DC), 49-68
[11] Kavetski, D.; Kuczera, G.; Franks, S. W., Bayesian analysis of input uncertainty in hydrological modelling: 1. Theory, Water Resources Research, 42, W03407 (2006)
[12] Kavetski, D.; Kuczera, G.; Franks, S. W., Bayesian analysis of input uncertainty in hydrological modelling: 2. Application, Water Resources Research, 42, W03408 (2006)
[13] Kennedy, M. C.; O’Hagan, A., Bayesian calibration of computer models, Journal of the Royal Statistical society. Series B. Statistical Methodology, 63, 425-464 (2001) · Zbl 1007.62021
[14] Kuczera, G., Estimation of runoff-routing parameters using incompatible storm data, Journal of Hydrology, 114, 47-60 (1990)
[15] Kuczera, G.; Kavetski, D.; Franks, S.; Thyer, M., Towards a Bayesian total error analysis of conceptual rainfall-runoff models: characterising model error using storm-dependent parameters, Journal of Hydrology, 331, 161-177 (2006)
[16] Künsch, H. R., State space and hidden markov models, (Barndorff-Nielsen, O. E.; Cox, D. R.; Klüppelberg, C., Complex Stochastic Systems (2001), Chapman & Hall/CRC: Chapman & Hall/CRC Boca Raton), 109-173 · Zbl 1002.62072
[17] Liu, F., (2007). Bayesian functional data analysis for computer model validation. Ph.D. Dissertation. Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, Duke University. Durham, NC, USA.; Liu, F., (2007). Bayesian functional data analysis for computer model validation. Ph.D. Dissertation. Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, Duke University. Durham, NC, USA.
[18] Liu, F.; West, M., A dynamic modelling strategy for Bayesian computer model emulation, Bayesian Analysis, 4, 393-412 (2009) · Zbl 1330.65034
[19] Meinhold, R. J.; Singpurwalla, N. D., Understanding the Kalman filter, The American Statistician, 37, 123-127 (1983)
[20] Oakley, J.; O’Hagan, A., Bayesian inference for the uncertainty distribution of computer model outputs, Biometrika, 89, 769-784 (2002)
[21] O’Hagan, A., Bayesian analysis of computer code outputs: a tutorial, Reliability Engineering & System Savety, 91, 1290-1300 (2006)
[22] O’Hagan, A., Some Bayesian numerical analysis, (Bernardo, J. M.; Berger, J. O.; Dawid, A. P.; Smith, A. F.M., Bayesian Statistics 4 (1992), Oxford University Press: Oxford University Press Oxford), 345-363
[23] Reichert, P.; Mieleitner, J., Analyzing input and structural uncertainty of nonlinear dynamic models with stochastic, time-dependent parameters, Water Resources Research, 45 (2009)
[24] Sacks, J.; Welch, W. J.; Mitchell, T. J.; Wynn, H. P., Design and analysis of computer experiments, Statistical Science, 4, 409-435 (1989) · Zbl 0955.62619
[25] Santner, T. J.; Williams, B. J.; Notz, W., The Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments (2003), Springer · Zbl 1041.62068
[26] White, G., Reichert, P., (2011). Bayesian parameter estimation for dynamic emulators of complex computer models (in preparation).; White, G., Reichert, P., (2011). Bayesian parameter estimation for dynamic emulators of complex computer models (in preparation).
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.