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Uncertainty quantification for approximate \(p\)-quantiles for physical models with stochastic inputs. (English) Zbl 1311.65003

Summary: We consider the problem of estimating the \(p\)-quantile for a given functional evaluated on solutions of a deterministic model in which model input is subject to stochastic variation. We derive upper and lower bounding estimators of the \(p\)-quantile. We perform an a posteriori error analysis for the \(p\)-quantile estimators that takes into account the effects of both the stochastic sampling error and the deterministic numerical solution error and yields a computational error bound for the estimators. We also analyze the asymptotic convergence properties of the \(p\)-quantile estimator bounds in the limit of large sample size and decreasing numerical error and describe algorithms for computing an estimator of the \(p\)-quantile with a desired accuracy in a computationally efficient fashion. One algorithm exploits the fact that the accuracy of only a subset of sample values significantly affects the accuracy of a \(p\)-quantile estimator resulting in a significant gain in computational efficiency. We conclude with a number of numerical examples, including an application to Darcy flow in porous media.

MSC:

65C05 Monte Carlo methods
65C30 Numerical solutions to stochastic differential and integral equations
65N15 Error bounds for boundary value problems involving PDEs
65N30 Finite element, Rayleigh-Ritz and Galerkin methods for boundary value problems involving PDEs
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