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Persistent high incidence of tuberculosis among immigrants in a low-incidence country: impact of immigrants with early or late latency. (English) Zbl 1260.92052

Summary: Spread of tuberculosis (TB) due to the immigration from some developing countries with high TB incidence to developed countries poses an increasing challenge in the global TB control. Here a simple compartmental TB model with constant immigration, early and late latency is developed in order to investigate the impact of new immigrants with latent TB on the overall TB incidence, and to compare the difference contributed by different proportions of latently-infected new immigrants with high or low risk to develop active TB shortly after arrival. The global dynamics of the system is completely classified, numerical simulations are carried out for different scenarios, and potential applications to public health policy are discussed.

MSC:

92C60 Medical epidemiology
93A30 Mathematical modelling of systems (MSC2010)
34D23 Global stability of solutions to ordinary differential equations
65C20 Probabilistic models, generic numerical methods in probability and statistics