×

Interventions in INGARCH processes. (English) Zbl 1242.62095

Summary: We study the problem of intervention effects generating various types of outliers in a linear count time-series model. This model belongs to the class of observation-driven models and extends the class of Gaussian linear time-series models within the exponential family framework. Studies about effects of covariates and interventions for count time-series models have largely fallen behind, because the underlying process, whose behaviour determines the dynamics of the observed process, is not observed. We suggest a computationally feasible approach to these problems, focusing especially on the detection and estimation of sudden shifts and outliers. We consider three different scenarios, namely the detection of an intervention effect of a known type at a known time, the detection of an intervention effect when the type and the time are both unknown and the detection of multiple intervention effects. We develop score tests for the first scenario and a parametric bootstrap procedure based on the maximum of the different score test statistics for the second scenario. The third scenario is treated by a stepwise procedure, where we detect and correct intervention effects iteratively. The usefulness of the proposed methods is illustrated using simulated and real data examples.

MSC:

62M10 Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH)
62F40 Bootstrap, jackknife and other resampling methods
65C60 Computational problems in statistics (MSC2010)

Software:

R

References:

[1] Basawa, Estimating Functions pp 121– (1991)
[2] Bollerslev, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Journal of Econometrics 31 pp 307– (1986) · Zbl 0616.62119
[3] Box, Intervention analysis with applications to economics and environmental problems, Journal of the American Statistical Association 70 pp 70– (1975) · Zbl 0316.62045
[4] Carnero, Effect of outliers on the identification and estimation of GARCH models, Journal of Time Series Analysis 28 pp 471– (2006)
[5] Chang, Estimation of time series parameters in the presence of outliers, Technometrics 30 pp 193– (1988)
[6] Charles, Outliers and GARCH models in financial data, Economic Letters 86 pp 347– (2005)
[7] Chen, Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series, Journal of the American Statistical Association 88 pp 284– (1993) · Zbl 0775.62229
[8] Cox, Statistical analysis of time series: some recent developments, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 8 pp 93– (1981) · Zbl 0468.62079
[9] Davis, The identification of multiple outliers. Invited paper with discussion and reply, Journal of the American Statistical Association 88 pp 782– (1993) · doi:10.1080/01621459.1993.10476339
[10] Davis, Observation-driven models for Poisson counts, Biometrika 90 pp 777– (2003) · Zbl 1436.62418
[11] Ferland, Integer-valued GARCH processes, Journal of Time Series Analysis 27 pp 923– (2006) · Zbl 1150.62046
[12] Fokianos, Partial likelihood inference for time series following generalized linear models, Journal of Time Series Analysis 25 pp 173– (2004) · Zbl 1051.62073
[13] Fokianos, Poisson autoregression, Journal of the American Statistical Association 104 pp 1430– (2009)
[14] Fox, Outliers in time series, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B 34 pp 350– (1972) · Zbl 0249.62089
[15] Gather, The identification of multiple outliers in online monitoring data, Estadística 54 pp 289– (2002) · Zbl 1034.62083
[16] Heinen, A. (2003) Modelling time series count data: an autoregressive conditional poisson model. MPRA Paper 8113, University Library of Munich, Germany. Available at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8113/.
[17] Jung, Time series of count data: modeling, estimation and diagnostics, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 51 pp 2350– (2006) · Zbl 1157.62492
[18] Justel, Detection of outlier patches in autoregressive time series, Statistica Sinica 11 pp 651– (2001) · Zbl 0978.62081
[19] Kedem, Regression Models for Time Series Analysis (2002)
[20] Li, Time series models based on generalized linear models: some further results, Biometrics 50 pp 506– (1994) · Zbl 0825.62606
[21] MacDonald, Hidden Markov and Other Models for Discrete-Valued Time Series (1997) · Zbl 0868.60036
[22] R Development Core Team., R: A language and environment for statistical computing (2004)
[23] Rydberg, Nonlinear and Nonstationary Signal Processing pp 217– (2000)
[24] Streett, S. (2000) Some observation driven models for time series of counts. Ph. D. thesis, Colorado State University, Department of Statistics.
[25] Tsay, Time series model specification in the presence of outliers, Journal of the American Statistical Association 81 pp 132– (1986)
[26] Van Dijk, Testing for ARCH in the presense of additive outlier, Journal of Applied Econometrics 14 pp 539– (1999)
[27] Zeger, Markov regression models for time series: a quasi-likelihood approach, Biometrics 44 pp 1019– (1988) · Zbl 0715.62166
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.