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Decision making with belief structures: an application in risk management. (English) Zbl 1232.91127

Summary: This paper examines the problem of selecting an alternative in situations in which there exists uncertainty in our knowledge of the state of the world. We show how the ordered weighted averaging aggregation operators provide a unifying approach to selecting alternatives under uncertainty. In particular, we see how these operators provide a type of probability associated with our degree of optimism. We also show how the Dempster-Shafer belief structure provides a general framework for representing the information a decision maker has regarding relevant events. We then propose a methodology for decision making under uncertainty, integrating the ordered weighted averaging aggregation operators and the Dempster-Shafer belief structure. The proposed methodology is applied to a real world case involving risk management at one of the nation’s largest banks.

MSC:

91B06 Decision theory
90B50 Management decision making, including multiple objectives
91G50 Corporate finance (dividends, real options, etc.)
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