×

Tails of correlation mixtures of elliptical copulas. (English) Zbl 1232.62080

Summary: Correlation mixtures of elliptical copulas arise when the correlation parameter is driven itself by a latent random process. For such copulas, both penultimate and asymptotic tail dependence are much larger than for ordinary elliptical copulas with the same unconditional correlation. Furthermore, for Gaussian and Student \(t\)-copulas, tail dependence at sub-asymptotic levels is generally larger than in the limit, which can have serious consequences for estimation and evaluation of extreme risks. Finally, although correlation mixtures of Gaussian copulas inherit the property of asymptotic independence, at the same time they fall in the newly defined category of near asymptotic dependence. The consequences of these findings for modeling are assessed by means of a simulation study and a case study involving financial time series.

MSC:

62H05 Characterization and structure theory for multivariate probability distributions; copulas
62H20 Measures of association (correlation, canonical correlation, etc.)
62P05 Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics
91B84 Economic time series analysis
91G70 Statistical methods; risk measures

References:

[1] Abdous, B.; Fougères, A.-L.; Ghoudi, K., Extreme behaviour for bivariate elliptical distributions, The Canadian Journal of Statistics, 33, 317-334 (2005) · Zbl 1096.62053
[2] Asimit, A. V.; Jones, B. L., Extreme behavior of bivariate elliptical distributions, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 41, 53-61 (2007) · Zbl 1117.60014
[3] Cambanis, S.; Huang, S.; Simons, G., On the theory of elliptically contoured distributions, Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 11, 368-385 (1981) · Zbl 0469.60019
[4] Clark, P. K., A subordinate stochastic process model with finite variance for speculative prices, Econometrica, 41, 135-155 (1973) · Zbl 0308.90011
[5] Coles, S.; Heffernan, J.; Tawn, J., Dependence measures for extreme value analyses, Extremes, 2, 339-365 (1999) · Zbl 0972.62030
[6] Demarta, S.; McNeil, A. J., The \(t\) copula and related copulas, International Statistical Review, 73, 111-129 (2005) · Zbl 1104.62060
[7] Embrechts, P.; McNeil, A.; Straumann, D., Correlation and dependence in risk management: properties and pitfalls, (Dempster, M., Risk Management: Value at Risk and Beyond (2002), Cambridge University Press: Cambridge University Press Cambridge), 176-223
[8] Engle, R. F., Dynamic conditional correlation: a simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, 339-350 (2002)
[9] Erb, C. B.; Harvey, C. R.; Viskante, T. E., Forecasting international equity correlations, Financial Analysts Journal, 50, 32-45 (1994)
[10] Fang, K.-T.; Kotz, S.; Ng, K.-W., Symmetric Multivariate and Related Distributions (1990), Chapman and Hall: Chapman and Hall London, United Kingdom · Zbl 0699.62048
[11] Frahm, G.; Junker, M.; Schmidt, R., Estimating the tail-dependence coefficient: properties and pitfalls, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 37, 80-100 (2005) · Zbl 1101.62012
[12] Hafner, C.M., Manner, H., 2010. Dynamic stochastic copula models: estimation, inference and applications. Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming (doi:10.1002/jae.1197; Hafner, C.M., Manner, H., 2010. Dynamic stochastic copula models: estimation, inference and applications. Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming (doi:10.1002/jae.1197
[13] Hafner, C. M.; Reznikova, O., Efficient estimation of a semiparametric dynamic copula model, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 54, 2609-2627 (2010) · Zbl 1284.91472
[14] Hashorva, E., Extremes of asymptotically spherical and elliptical random vectors, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 36, 285-302 (2005) · Zbl 1110.62023
[15] Hashorva, E., Tail asymptotic results for elliptical distributions, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 43, 158-164 (2008) · Zbl 1145.62040
[16] Hashorva, E., Conditional limit results for type I polar distributions, Extremes, 12, 239-263 (2009) · Zbl 1224.60031
[17] Heffernan, J., A directory of coefficients of tail dependence, Extremes, 3, 279-290 (2000) · Zbl 0979.62040
[18] Kotz, S.; Balakrishnan, N.; Johnson, N. L., Continuous Multivariate Distributions (2000), Wiley: Wiley New York · Zbl 0946.62001
[19] Ledford, A. W.; Tawn, J. A., Statistics for near independence in multivariate extreme values, Biometrika, 86, 169-187 (1996) · Zbl 0865.62040
[20] Liesenfeld, R.; Richard, J. F., Univariate and multivariate stochastic volatility models: estimation and diagnostics, Journal of Empirical Finance, 10, 505-531 (2003)
[21] Longin, F.; Solnik, B., Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990, Journal of International Money and Finance, 14, 3-26 (1995)
[22] Patton, A., Modelling asymmetric exchange rate dependence, International Economic Review, 47, 527-556 (2006)
[23] Schmidt, R., Tail dependence for elliptically contoured distributions, Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 55, 301-327 (2002) · Zbl 1015.62052
[24] Taylor, S. J., Modelling Financial Time Series (1986), John Wiley and Sons: John Wiley and Sons Chichester · Zbl 1130.91345
[25] Yu, J.; Meyer, R., Multivariate stochastic volatility models: Bayesian estimation and model comparison, Econometric Reviews, 25, 361-384 (2006) · Zbl 1113.62133
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.