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Log-linear Poisson autoregression. (English) Zbl 1207.62165

Summary: We consider a log-linear model for time series of counts. This type of model provides a framework where both negative and positive associations, can be taken into account. In addition time dependent covariates are accommodated in a straightforward way. We study its probabilistic properties and maximum likelihood estimation. It is shown that a perturbed version of the process is geometrically ergodic, and, under some conditions, it approaches the non-perturbed version. In addition, it is proved that the maximum likelihood estimator of the vector of unknown parameters is asymptotically normal with a covariance matrix that can be consistently estimated. The results are based on minimal assumptions and can be extended to the case of log-linear regression with continuous exogenous variables. The theory is applied to aggregated financial transaction time series. In particular, we discover positive association between the number of transactions and the volatility process of a certain stock.

MSC:

62M10 Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH)
62J12 Generalized linear models (logistic models)
62H12 Estimation in multivariate analysis
62F12 Asymptotic properties of parametric estimators
62P05 Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics
Full Text: DOI

References:

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