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Bayesian analysis of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models. (English) Zbl 1111.62024

Summary: Bayesian estimation of the unknown parameters of a non-homogeneous Gaussian hidden Markov model is described. The hidden Markov chain presents time-varying transition probabilities, depending on exogenous variables through a logistic function. Bayesian model choice is also proposed to select the unknown number of states of the hidden non-homogeneous Markov chain. Both the analyses are developed by using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Model selection and parameter estimation are performed after making the model identifiable, by selecting suitable constraints through a data-driven procedure. The methodology is illustrated by an empirical analysis of ozone data.

MSC:

62F15 Bayesian inference
62M05 Markov processes: estimation; hidden Markov models
62P12 Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics
65C40 Numerical analysis or methods applied to Markov chains
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