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An advection-diffusion-reaction size-structured fish population dynamics model combined with a statistical parameter estimation procedure: application to the Indian Ocean skipjack tuna fishery. (English) Zbl 1097.92058

Summary: We develop an advection-diffusion size-structured fish population dynamics model and apply it to simulate the skipjack tuna population in the Indian Ocean. The model is fully spatialized, and movements are parameterized with oceanographical and biological data; thus it naturally reacts to environmental changes. We first formulate an initial-boundary value problem and prove existence of a unique positive solution. We then discuss the numerical scheme chosen for the integration of the simulation model. In a second step we address the parameter estimation problem for such a model. With the help of automatic differentiation, we derive the adjoint code which is used to compute the exact gradient of a Bayesian cost function measuring the distance between the outputs of the model and catch and length frequency data. A sensitivity analysis shows that not all parameters can be estimated from the data. Finally twin experiments in which pertubated parameters are recovered from simulated data are successfully conducted.

MSC:

92D40 Ecology
35K57 Reaction-diffusion equations
91B76 Environmental economics (natural resource models, harvesting, pollution, etc.)
86A05 Hydrology, hydrography, oceanography
35K15 Initial value problems for second-order parabolic equations
35K20 Initial-boundary value problems for second-order parabolic equations
65M06 Finite difference methods for initial value and initial-boundary value problems involving PDEs
65K10 Numerical optimization and variational techniques
93B30 System identification
65C20 Probabilistic models, generic numerical methods in probability and statistics
62P10 Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis