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Does model uncertainty justify caution? Robust optimal monetary policy in a forward-looking model. (English) Zbl 1008.91085

Summary: This paper proposes a general method based on a property of zero-sum two-player games to derive robust optimal monetary policy rules – the best rules among those that yield an acceptable performance in a specified range of models – when the true model is unknown and model uncertainty is viewed as uncertainty about parameters of the structural model. The method is applied to characterize robust optimal Taylor rules in a simple forward-looking macroeconomic model that can be derived from first principles. Although it is commonly believed that monetary policy should be less responsive when there is parameter uncertainty, we show that robust optimal Taylor rules prescribe in general a stronger response of the interest rate to fluctuations in inflation and the output gap than is the case in the absence of uncertainty. Thus model uncertainty does not necessarily justify a relatively small response of actual monetary policy.

MSC:

91B64 Macroeconomic theory (monetary models, models of taxation)
91A10 Noncooperative games
91A05 2-person games