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Maximum likelihood estimation of a latent variable time-series model. (English) Zbl 0965.62071

Two main classes of models are used in the analysis of financial time series: the ARCH-type models and the stochastic volatility models. The first class of models was introduced by R.F. Engel [Econometrica 50, 987-1007 (1982; Zbl 0491.62099)] and had a widespread diffusion, with an evolution towards more complicated formulations allowing for more realistic hypotheses. The models of the second class have a different structure because they assume that the variance of the conditional distribution of the observations depends on a latent variable that may adequately represent the flow of information arriving into financial markets. The first direct maximum likelihood approach dates back to 1988 to M. Fridman and L. Harris [J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 16, 284-291 (1998)]. They described a quadrature method which allows one to compute the likelihood of the model with a required precision. In practice the method makes use of numerical derivatives.
The aim of this paper is to extend the approach of Fridman and Harris through the computation of the first and second analytical derivatives of the approximate likelihood. This strategy helps squeezing the computational time in the estimation of the parameters since the Newton-Raphson algorithm may be used to maximize the approximate likelihood. Moreover, these derivatives approximate the corresponding derivatives of the exact likelihood. On the basis of the second derivative it is possible to compute the standard error of the estimator and confidence intervals for the parameters may be constructed. The reliability of the procedure is established by a simulation study involving processes with parameters already selected by other authors in order to facilitate the comparison of the results with other estimation methods.

MSC:

62M10 Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH)
62P05 Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics
91B84 Economic time series analysis
62H12 Estimation in multivariate analysis
62P30 Applications of statistics in engineering and industry; control charts

Citations:

Zbl 0491.62099
Full Text: DOI

References:

[1] Engle, Econometrica 50 pp 987– (1982) · Zbl 0491.62099 · doi:10.2307/1912773
[2] Bollerslev, Journal of Econometrics 31 pp 307– (1986) · Zbl 0616.62119 · doi:10.1016/0304-4076(86)90063-1
[3] Fridman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 16 pp 284– (1998)
[4] Harvey, Review of Economic Studies 61 pp 247– (1994) · Zbl 0805.90026 · doi:10.2307/2297980
[5] Sandmann, Journal of Econometrics 87 pp 271– (1988) · Zbl 0937.62110 · doi:10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00016-5
[6] Jacquier, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12 pp 371– (1994)
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