Multiple attractors in the response to a vaccination program. (English) Zbl 0699.92016
Summary: Though it is well known that multiple attractors may co-exist in the SEIR (susceptible/exposed/infective/recovered) epidemic model with vital dynamics and seasonally forced oscillations in transmission, the epidemiological significance of multiple attractors has been a subject of debate. I show that the co-existence of attractors is relevant in using the model to study the dynamics of the introduction of a vaccination program into a stable epidemic cycle. Responses to the program may include more than one attractor. The exact timing of the introduction of the program relative to the original epidemic cycle is critical in determining which attractor appears in the response. Analysis of this simple model suggests that the role of multiple attractors in the response to vaccination should be examined in more realistic epidemiological models.
MSC:
| 92D25 | Population dynamics (general) |
| 34C99 | Qualitative theory for ordinary differential equations |
Keywords:
SEIR epidemic model; multiple attractors; vital dynamics; seasonally forced oscillations; co-existence of attractors; vaccination program; stable epidemic cycle; response to vaccinationReferences:
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