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Longini, Ira M. jun.

A mathematical model for predicting the geographic spread of new infectious agents. (English) Zbl 0651.92016

Math. Biosci. 90, No. 1-2, 367-383 (1988).
Summary: A mathematical model for the temporal and geographic spread of an epidemic in a network of populations is presented. The model is formulated on a continuous state space in discrete time for an infectious disease that confers immunity following infection. The model allows for a general distribution of both the latent and infectious periods. An epidemic threshold theorem is given along with methods for finding the final attack rate when a single closed population is modeled.
The model is first applied to analyzing the spread of influenza in single, closed populations in England and Wales and Greater London for the years 1958-1973. Then the model is used to predict the spread of Hong Kong influenza in 1968-1969 among 52 of the world’s major cities. The prediction for the whole network of cities is based on air-transport data and on the estimated parameters from the ascending limb of the reported epidemic curve in Hong Kong, the first city to experience a major influenza epidemic in 1968. Finally, extensions and future uses of a model for temporal-geographic spread of infectious agents is discussed.

Cited in 27 Documents

MSC:

92D25 Population dynamics (general)

Keywords:

epidemiology; network of populations; continuous state space; discrete time; infectious disease; immunity following infection; epidemic threshold theorem; spread of influenza; prediction; temporal-geographic spread of infectious agents
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References:

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