| SSP | Scenario |
Estimated warming (2041–2060) |
Estimated warming (2081–2100) |
Very likely range in °C (2081–2100) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSP1-1.9 | very low GHG emissions: CO2 emissions cut to net zero around 2050 |
1.6 °C | 1.4 °C | 1.0 – 1.8 |
| SSP1-2.6 | low GHG emissions: CO2 emissions cut to net zero around 2075 |
1.7 °C | 1.8 °C | 1.3 – 2.4 |
| SSP2-4.5 | intermediate GHG emissions: CO2 emissions around current levels until 2050, then falling but not reaching net zero by 2100 |
2.0 °C | 2.7 °C | 2.1 – 3.5 |
| SSP3-7.0 | high GHG emissions: CO2 emissions double by 2100 |
2.1 °C | 3.6 °C | 2.8 – 4.6 |
| SSP5-8.5 | very high GHG emissions: CO2 emissions triple by 2075 |
2.4 °C | 4.4 °C | 3.3 – 5.7 |
The IPCC Sixth report did not estimate the likelihoods of the scenarios[1]: 12 but a 2020 commentary described SSP5–8.5 as highly unlikely, SSP3–7.0 as unlikely, and SSP2–4.5 as likely.[2]
However, a report citing the above commentary shows that RCP8.5 is the best match to the cumulative emissions from 2005 to 2020. [3]
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- ^ a b IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.
- ^ Hausfather, Zeke; Peters, Glen P. (2020-01-29). "Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading". Nature. 577 (618–620): 618–620. Bibcode:2020Natur.577..618H. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3. PMID 31996825. S2CID 256819346. Retrieved 2021-09-03.
- ^ Schwalm, Christopher R.; Glendon, Spencer; Duffy, Philip B. (2020-08-03). "RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions". PNAS. 117 (33): 19656–19657. Bibcode:2020PNAS..11719656S. doi:10.1073/pnas.2007117117. PMC 7443890. PMID 32747549.