skip to main content
research-article

Global-local Metamodel-assisted Stochastic Programming via Simulation

Published: 31 December 2020 Publication History

Abstract

To integrate strategic, tactical, and operational decisions, stochastic programming has been widely used to guide dynamic decision-making. In this article, we consider complex systems and introduce the global-local metamodel-assisted stochastic programming via simulation that can efficiently employ the simulation resource to iteratively solve for the optimal first- and second-stage decisions. Specifically, at each visited first-stage decision, we develop a local metamodel to simultaneously solve a set of scenario-based second-stage optimization problems, which also allows us to estimate the optimality gap. Then, we construct a global metamodel accounting for the errors induced by: (1) using a finite number of scenarios to approximate the expected future cost occurring in the planning horizon, (2) second-stage optimality gap, and (3) finite visited first-stage decisions. Assisted by the global-local metamodel, we propose a new simulation optimization approach that can efficiently and iteratively search for the optimal first- and second-stage decisions. Our framework can guarantee the convergence of optimal solution for the discrete two-stage optimization with unknown objective, and the empirical study indicates that it achieves substantial efficiency and accuracy.

References

[1]
Shabbir Ahmed, Alexander Shapiro, and Er Shapiro. 2002. The sample average approximation method for stochastic programs with integer recourse. SIAM J. Optim. 12 (2002), 479--502.
[2]
Satyajith Amaran, Nikolaos V. Sahinidis, Bikram Sharda, and Scott J. Bury. 2016. Simulation optimization: A review of algorithms and applications. Ann. Oper. Res. 240, 1 (2016), 351--380.
[3]
Bruce Ankenman, Barry L. Nelson, and Jeremy Staum. 2010. Stochastic Kriging for simulation metamodeling. Oper. Res. 58, 2 (2010), 371--382.
[4]
T. Glenn Bailey, Paul A. Jensen, and David P. Morton. 1999. Response surface analysis of two-stage stochastic linear programming with recourse. Nav. Res. Logist. 46, 7 (1999), 753--776.
[5]
E. M. L. Beale. 1955. On minimizing a convex function subject to linear inequalities. J. Roy. Statist. Soci. Series B (Methodol.) 17, 2 (1955), 173--184.
[6]
John R. Birge and M. A. H. Dempster. 1996. Stochastic programming approaches to stochastic scheduling. J. Glob. Optim. 9, 3 (1996), 417--451.
[7]
John R. Birge and François Louveaux. 2011. Introduction to Stochastic Programming (2nd ed.). Springer Publishing Company, Incorporated.
[8]
John R. Birge and François V. Louveaux. 1988. A multicut algorithm for two-stage stochastic linear programs. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 34, 3 (1988), 384--392.
[9]
Eric Brochu, Vlad M. Cora, and Nando de Freitas. 2010. A tutorial on Bayesian optimization of expensive cost functions, with application to active user modeling and hierarchical reinforcement learning. ArXiv abs/1012.2599 (2010).
[10]
C. B. Browne, E. Powley, D. Whitehouse, S. M. Lucas, P. I. Cowling, P. Rohlfshagen, S. Tavener, D. Perez, S. Samothrakis, and S. Colton. 2012. A survey of Monte Carlo tree search methods. IEEE Trans. Computat. Intell. AI Games 4, 1 (Mar. 2012), 1--43.
[11]
Adam D. Bull. 2011. Convergence rates of efficient global optimization algorithms. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 12 (Nov. 2011), 2879--2904. Retrieved from http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=1953048.2078198.
[12]
Richard H. Byrd, Peihuang Lu, Jorge Nocedal, and Ciyou Zhu. 1995. A limited memory algorithm for bound constrained optimization. SIAM J. Sci. Comput. 16 (1995), 1190--1208.
[13]
Chen Fu Chien, Stéphane Dauzère-Pérès, Hans Ehm, John W. Fowler, Zhibin Jiang, Shekar Krishnaswamy, Tae Eog Lee, Lars Mönch, and Reha Uzsoy. 2011. Modelling and analysis of semiconductor manufacturing in a shrinking world: Challenges and successes. Eur. J. Industr. Eng. 5, 3 (2011), 254--271.
[14]
George B. Dantzig. 1955. Linear programming under uncertainty. Manag. Sci. 1, 3/4 (1955), 197--206.
[15]
George B. Dantzig and Peter W. Glynn. 1990. Parallel processors for planning under uncertainty. Ann. Oper. Res. 22, 1 (1990), 1--21.
[16]
M. A. H. Dempster, M. F. Fisher, L. Jansen, and A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan. 1981. Analytical evaluation of hierarchical planning systems. Oper. Res. 29, 4 (1981), 707--716.
[17]
Tahir Ekin, Nicholas G. Polson, and Refik Soyer. 2014. Augmented Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation for two-stage stochastic programs with recourse. Decis. Anal. 11, 4 (2014), 250--264.
[18]
Karl Frauendorfer. 1988. Solving SLP recourse problems with arbitrary multivariate distributions: The dependent case. Math. Oper. Res. 13, 3 (1988), 377--394.
[19]
Michael C. Fu (Ed.). 2014. Handbook of Simulation Optimization. Springer, New York, NY.
[20]
Gene H. Golub and Charles F. Van Loan. 1996. Matrix Computations (3rd ed.). The Johns Hopkins University Press.
[21]
Shane G. Henderson and Barry L. Nelson. 2006. Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science. Vol. 13. Elsevier.
[22]
Julia L. Higle and Suvrajeet Sen. 1991. Stochastic decomposition: An algorithm for two-stage linear programs with recourse. Math. Oper. Res. 16, 3 (1991), 650--669.
[23]
Julia L. Higle and Suvrajeet Sen. 1994. Finite master programs in regularized stochastic decomposition. Math. Prog. 67, 1 (1994), 143--168.
[24]
L. Jeff Hong and Barry L. Nelson. 2006. Discrete optimization via simulation using COMPASS. Oper. Res. 54, 1 (2006), 115--129.
[25]
D. Huang, T. T. Allen, W. I. Notz, and N. Zeng. 2006. Global optimization of stochastic black-box systems via sequential Kriging meta-models. J. Glob. Optim. 34, 3 (2006), 441--466.
[26]
D. R. Jones, C. D. Perttunen, and B. E. Stuckman. 1993. Lipschitzian optimization without the Lipschitz constant. J. Optim. Theor. Applic. 79, 1 (1993), 157--181.
[27]
Donald R. Jones, Matthias Schonlau, and William J. Welch. 1998. Efficient global optimization of expensive black-box functions. J. Glob. Optim. 13, 4 (1998), 455--492.
[28]
Philip Kaminsky and Yang Wang. 2015. Analytical models for biopharmaceutical operations and supply chain management: A survey of research literature. Pharmac. Bioproc. 3, 1 (2015), 61--73.
[29]
Seong-Hee Kim and Barry L. Nelson. 2007. Recent advances in ranking and selection. In Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc., Piscataway, New Jersey, 162--172.
[30]
Vadim Lesnevski, Barry L. Nelson, and Jeremy Staum. 2007. Simulation of coherent risk measures based on generalized scenarios. Manag. Sci. 53, 11 (2007), 1756--1769.
[31]
Vadim Lesnevski, Barry L. Nelson, and Jeremy Staum. 2008. An adaptive procedure for estimating coherent risk measures based on generalized scenarios. J. Computat. Fin. 11, 4 (2008), 1--31.
[32]
Jingang Liu, Chihui Li, Feng Yang, Hong Wan, and Reha Uzsoy. 2011. Production planning in semiconductor manufacturing via simulation optimization. In Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, S. Jain, R. R. Creasey, J. Himmelspach, K. P. White, and M. Fu (Eds.). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc., Piscataway, New Jersey, 3617--3627.
[33]
François V. Louveaux. 1980. A solution method for multistage stochastic programs with recourse with application to an energy investment problem. Oper. Res. 28, 4 (1980), 889--902.
[34]
Yao Ma. 2011. Risk Management in Biopharmaceutical Supply Chains. Ph.D. Dissertation. University of California, Berkeley.
[35]
Barry L. Nelson. 2016. “Some tactical problems in digital simulation” for the next 10 years. J. Simul. 10, 1 (2016), 2--11.
[36]
Warren Powell. 2014. Clearing the Jungle of stochastic optimization. INFORMS Tutor. Oper. Res. (Sept. 2014), 109--137.
[37]
Ning Quan, Jun Yin, Szu Hui Ng, and Loo Hay Lee. 2013. Simulation optimization via Kriging: A sequential search using expected improvement with computing budget constraints. IIE Trans. 45, 7 (2013), 763--780.
[38]
Vikas C. Raykar and Ramani Duraiswami. 2007. Fast large scale Gaussian process regression using approximate matrix-vector products.
[39]
Pablo A. Ruiz, C. Russ Philbrick, and Peter W. Sauer. 2009. Wind power day-ahead uncertainty management through stochastic unit commitment policies. In Proceedings of the IEEE/PES Power Systems Conference and Exposition. 1--9.
[40]
Jerome Sacks, William J. Welch, Toby J. Mitchell, and Henry P. Wynn. 1989. Design and analysis of computer experiments. Statist. Sci. 4, 4 (1989), 409--423.
[41]
T. J. Santner, B. J. Williams, and W. I. Notz. 2019. The Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments. Springer New York. Retrieved from https://books.google.com/books?id=MOeCDwAAQBAJ.
[42]
Alexander Shapiro. 2008. Stochastic programming approach to optimization under uncertainty. Math. Prog. 112, 1 (2008), 183--220.
[43]
Alexander Shapiro, Darinka Dentcheva, and Andrzej Ruszczynski. 2009. Lectures on Stochastic Programming: Modeling and Theory. SIAM, Philadelphia.
[44]
Alexander Shapiro, Darinka Dentcheva, and Andrzej Ruszczynski. 2014. Lectures on Stochastic Programming: Modeling and Theory, Second Edition. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia, PA.
[45]
Alexander Shapiro and Tito Homem-de Mello. 1998. A simulation-based approach to two-stage stochastic programming with recourse. Math. Prog. 81, 3 (1998), 301--325.
[46]
Alexander Shapiro and Tito Homem-de Mello. 2000. On the rate of convergence of optimal solutions of Monte Carlo approximations of stochastic programs. SIAM J. Optim. 11, 1 (2000), 70--86.
[47]
Alexander Shapiro and Arkadi Nemirovski. 2005. Continuous Optimization. Applied Optimization, Vol. 99. Springer, Boston, MA.
[48]
Alexander Shapiro and Andy Philpott. 2007. A tutorial on stochastic programming. Retrieved from https://www.isye.gatech.edu/people/faculty/Alex_Shapiro/TutorialSP.pdf.
[49]
James C. Spall. 1992. Multivariate stochastic approximation using simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Trans. Autom. Contr. 37, 3 (1992), 332--341.
[50]
H. P. Stehouwer and D. den Hertog. 1999. Simulation-based design optimisation: Methodology and applications (Extended abstract). In Proceedings of the 1st ASMO UK/ISSMO Conference on Engineering Design Optimization, Vol. 1. Association for Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization in the UK (ASMO UK).
[51]
Lihua Sun, L. Jeff Hong, and Zhaolin Hu. 2014. Balancing exploitation and exploration in discrete optimization via simulation through a Gaussian Process-based approach. Oper. Res. 62, 6 (2014), 1416--1438.
[52]
Samer Takriti, John R. Birge, and Erik Long. 1996. A stochastic model for the unit commitment problem. IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 11, 3 (1996), 1497--1508.
[53]
Shing Chih Tsai, Barry L. Nelson, and Jeremy Staum. 2009. Combined Screening and Selection of the Best with Control Variates. International Series in Operations Research 8 Management Science, Vol. 133. Springer, New York.
[54]
Aidan Tuohy, Peter Meibom, Eleanor Denny, and Mark O’Malley. 2009. Unit commitment for systems with significant wind penetration. IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 24, 2 (2009), 592--601.
[55]
R. M. Van Slyke and Roger Wets. 1969. L-Shaped linear programs with applications to optimal control and stochastic programming. SIAM J. Appl. Math. 17, 4 (1969), 638--663.
[56]
Abraham Wald. 1949. Note on the consistency of the maximum likelihood estimate. Ann. Math. Statist. 20, 4 (1949), 595--601. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2236315.
[57]
James T. Wilson, Frank Hutter, and Marc Peter Deisenroth. 2018. Maximizing acquisition functions for Bayesian optimization. In Proceedings of the Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS’18).
[58]
Wei Xie, Barry L. Nelson, and Jeremy Staum. 2010. The influence of correlation functions on stochastic Kriging metamodels. In Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference, B. Johansson, S. Jain, J. Montoya-Torres, J. Hugan, and E. Yucesan (Ed.). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc., Piscataway, New Jersey, 1067--1078.
[59]
Wei Xie and Yuan Yi. 2016. A simulation-based prediction framework for two-stage dynamic decision making. In Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, T. M. K. Roeder, P. I. Frazier, R. Szechtman, E. Zhou, T. Huschka, and S. E. Chick (Eds.). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc., Piscataway, New Jersey, 2304--2315.
[60]
Jie Xu, Barry L. Nelson, and L. Jeff Hong. 2010. Industrial strength COMPASS: A comprehensive algorithm and software for optimization via simulation. ACM Trans. Model. Comput. Simul. 20, 1 (2010), 3:1--3:29.
[61]
Zelda B. Zabinsky. 2009. Random Search Algorithms. Wiley.

Cited By

View all
  • (2024)Ranking and Selection with Two-Stage DecisionSSRN Electronic Journal10.2139/ssrn.4786970Online publication date: 2024
  • (2024)Adaptive metamodeling simulation optimization: Insights, challenges, and perspectivesApplied Soft Computing10.1016/j.asoc.2024.112067165(112067)Online publication date: Nov-2024
  • (2023)Efficient estimation of a risk measure requiring two-stage simulation optimizationEuropean Journal of Operational Research10.1016/j.ejor.2022.06.028305:3(1355-1365)Online publication date: Mar-2023

Index Terms

  1. Global-local Metamodel-assisted Stochastic Programming via Simulation

    Recommendations

    Comments

    Information & Contributors

    Information

    Published In

    cover image ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation
    ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation  Volume 31, Issue 1
    January 2021
    144 pages
    ISSN:1049-3301
    EISSN:1558-1195
    DOI:10.1145/3446631
    Issue’s Table of Contents
    Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

    Publisher

    Association for Computing Machinery

    New York, NY, United States

    Publication History

    Published: 31 December 2020
    Accepted: 01 July 2020
    Revised: 01 May 2020
    Received: 01 August 2018
    Published in TOMACS Volume 31, Issue 1

    Permissions

    Request permissions for this article.

    Check for updates

    Author Tags

    1. Gaussian process metamodel
    2. Simulation optimization
    3. dynamic decision-making
    4. stochastic programming
    5. two-stage optimization

    Qualifiers

    • Research-article
    • Research
    • Refereed

    Contributors

    Other Metrics

    Bibliometrics & Citations

    Bibliometrics

    Article Metrics

    • Downloads (Last 12 months)42
    • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)2
    Reflects downloads up to 24 Oct 2024

    Other Metrics

    Citations

    Cited By

    View all
    • (2024)Ranking and Selection with Two-Stage DecisionSSRN Electronic Journal10.2139/ssrn.4786970Online publication date: 2024
    • (2024)Adaptive metamodeling simulation optimization: Insights, challenges, and perspectivesApplied Soft Computing10.1016/j.asoc.2024.112067165(112067)Online publication date: Nov-2024
    • (2023)Efficient estimation of a risk measure requiring two-stage simulation optimizationEuropean Journal of Operational Research10.1016/j.ejor.2022.06.028305:3(1355-1365)Online publication date: Mar-2023

    View Options

    Get Access

    Login options

    Full Access

    View options

    PDF

    View or Download as a PDF file.

    PDF

    eReader

    View online with eReader.

    eReader

    HTML Format

    View this article in HTML Format.

    HTML Format

    Media

    Figures

    Other

    Tables

    Share

    Share

    Share this Publication link

    Share on social media