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Estimation of aquifer dimensions from passive seismic signals with approximate wave propagation models. (English) Zbl 1284.86003

Summary: Recently, it has been proposed that spontaneous seismic activity could be used in the estimation of hydrological parameters of aquifers such as permeability and storage. Approximate wave propagation models such as ray tracing, which are commonly used in hydrological parameter estimation with active sources and backscattering geometry, are not feasible with passive seismological imaging. With respect to full wave propagation models, the most accurate known model for aquifers is the poroelastic model while bedrock is usually modelled as an elastic medium. Using a poroelastic model in the forward model can be a computationally impractical choice. In this paper, we carry out a feasibility study in which we attempt to estimate the aquifer depth and water table using a highly approximate elastic model also for the aquifer. We adopt the Bayesian approximation error approach in which a statistical model is constructed for the errors that are induced by using model approximations such as sparse meshing and simplified physical models. We consider the problem in a simple two-dimensional geometry and show that straightforward adoption of approximate models leads to inconsistent parameter estimates, that is, the true parameters have essentially vanishing posterior density. On the other hand, using the Bayesian approximation error approach, the parameter estimates are consistent.

MSC:

86A05 Hydrology, hydrography, oceanography
86A15 Seismology (including tsunami modeling), earthquakes
86A22 Inverse problems in geophysics
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