Market timing: a test of a charting heuristic. (English) Zbl 1015.91514
Summary: We implement a graphical (or ‘charting’) heuristic, the ‘bull flag’, which accepts a particular pattern of historical prices as a signal for a future market price increase, test it with several years of New York Stock Exchange Composite Index history, and find positive results. The results support the validity of technical analysis for stock market price prediction and fail to confirm the efficient markets hypothesis.
MSC:
| 91B24 | Microeconomic theory (price theory and economic markets) |
| 91B82 | Statistical methods; economic indices and measures |
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