Document Zbl 1415.62164

Uvarov, N. D.; Kuznetsov, M. P.; Malkova, A. S.; Rudakov, K. V.; Strijov, V. V.

Selecting the superpositioning of models for railway freight forecasting. (English. Russian original) Zbl 1415.62164

Mosc. Univ. Comput. Math. Cybern. 42, No. 4, 186-193 (2018); translation from Vestn. Mosk. Univ., Ser. XV 2018, No. 4, 41-50 (2018).

Summary: The problem of selecting the optimum system of models for forecasting short-term railway traffic volumes is considered. The historical data is the daily volume of railway traffic between pairs of stations for different types of cargo. The given time series are highly volatile, noisy, and nonstationary. A system is proposed that selects the optimum superpositioning of forecasting models with respect to features of the historical data. A model of sliding averages, exponential and kernel-smoothing models, the ARIMA model, Croston’s method, and LSTM neural networks are considered as candidates for inclusion in superpositioning.

MSC:

62P30	Applications of statistics in engineering and industry; control charts
62M10	Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH)
62M20	Inference from stochastic processes and prediction

Keywords:

time series; forecasting; superposition; forecasting models; asymmetric distribution; regression residuals

Software:

SuperpositionForecasting

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Full Text: DOI

References:

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