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Nonstationary discrete choice: a corrigendum and addendum. (English) Zbl 1418.62347

Summary: We correct the limit theory presented in an earlier paper by L. Hu and P. C. B. Phillips [J. Econom. 120, No. 1, 103–138 (2004; Zbl 1282.91268)] for nonstationary time series discrete choice models with multiple choices and thresholds. The new limit theory shows that, in contrast to the binary choice model with nonstationary regressors and a zero threshold where there are dual rates of convergence (\(n^{1/4}\) and \(n^{3/4}\)), all parameters including the thresholds converge at the rate \(n^{3/4}\). The presence of nonzero thresholds therefore materially affects rates of convergence. Dual rates of convergence reappear when stationary variables are present in the system. Some simulation evidence is provided, showing how the magnitude of the thresholds affects finite sample performance. A new finding is that predicted probabilities and marginal effect estimates have finite sample distributions that manifest a pile-up, or increasing density, towards the limits of the domain of definition.

MSC:

62M10 Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH)
62F12 Asymptotic properties of parametric estimators
60J55 Local time and additive functionals
62P20 Applications of statistics to economics

Citations:

Zbl 1282.91268

References:

[1] Hu, L.; Phillips, P. C.B., Nonstationary discrete choice, Journal of Econometrics, 120, 103-138 (2004) · Zbl 1282.91268
[2] Hu, L.; Phillips, P. C.B., Dynamics of the federal funds target rate: a nonstationary discrete choice approach, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19, 851-867 (2004)
[3] Jeganathan, J., Convergence of functionals of sums of random variables to local times of fractional stable motions, Annals of Probability, 32, 1771-1795 (2004) · Zbl 1049.60019
[4] Park, J. Y.; Phillips, P. C.B., Asymptotics for nonlinear transformations of integrated time series, Econometric Theory, 15, 269-298 (1999) · Zbl 0964.62092
[5] Park, J. Y.; Phillips, P. C.B., Nonstationary binary choice, Econometrica, 68, 1249-1280 (2000) · Zbl 1056.62530
[6] Park, J. Y.; Phillips, P. C.B., Nonlinear regression with integrated processes, Econometrica, 69, 117-161 (2001) · Zbl 0999.62050
[7] Phillips, P.C.B., 1998/2005. Econometric analysis of the Fisher equation. Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1180. Published in American Journal of Economics and Sociology 64(1).; Phillips, P.C.B., 1998/2005. Econometric analysis of the Fisher equation. Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1180. Published in American Journal of Economics and Sociology 64(1).
[8] Phillips, P. C.B., Descriptive econometrics for non-stationary time series with empirical applications, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 389-413 (2001)
[9] Phillips, P.C.B., Jin, S., Hu, L., 2005. Nonstationary discrete choice: a corrigendum and addendum. Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1516, Yale University.; Phillips, P.C.B., Jin, S., Hu, L., 2005. Nonstationary discrete choice: a corrigendum and addendum. Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1516, Yale University.
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