The book is concerned with the plausibility of reliability estimates obtained from statistical models. Statistical predictions are necessary because technology is always pushing into unexplored areas faster than devices can be made long-lived by design. The issue is not making reliability estimates, but is instead their credibility. The credibility questions explored in the context of practical applications include:
1. What does the confidence level associated with the use of a statistical model mean? 2. Is the numerical result associated with a high confidence level beyond dispute? 3. Does the exponential model always provide the most conservative reliability estimate? 4. What model should be used to describe the useful life of a device when wearout is absent? 5. When Weibull and lognormal failure probability plots containing a large number of failure times appear similar, how should the correct wearout be selected? 6. Is it important to distinguish between a conservative upper bound on a probability of failure and a realistic estimate of the same probability?
The Contents are: 1. Introduction; 2. Probability; 3. Sampling; 4. Reliability functions and the bathtub curve; 5. Exponential model; 6. Models of useful life; 7. Wearout; 8. Device qualification.
The monograph is for those who are obliged to make reliability calculations by using inexact models.