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A multicriteria decision aid method for the assessment of business failure risk. (English) Zbl 0853.90072

Summary: In the field of business failure, a variety of methods have been used in the past to predict the failure of firms. Although many of the models provide rather good classification results, various problems exist in their application. One of the problems is that qualitative characteristics of the firms, in the form of discrete variables, are difficult to enter in statistical models. Additionally, the two-group classification is not always sufficient in real cases. The present study proposes the multicriteria decision aid method ELECTRE TRI as an alternative for the prediction of business failure and examines the usefulness of this method for a Greek industrial development bank. For a sample of Greek firms, a number of financial ratios as well as some qualitative characteristics were collected. The results obtained confirm the capability of ELECTRE TRI to assess the risk of business failure.

MSC:

90B50 Management decision making, including multiple objectives
68T35 Theory of languages and software systems (knowledge-based systems, expert systems, etc.) for artificial intelligence