×

News-based forecasts of macroeconomic indicators: a semantic path model for interpretable predictions. (English) Zbl 1403.91273

Summary: The macroeconomic climate influences operations with regard to, e.g., raw material prices, financing, supply chain utilization and demand quotas. In order to adapt to the economic environment, decision-makers across the public and private sectors require accurate forecasts of the economic outlook. Existing predictive frameworks base their forecasts primarily on time series analysis, as well as the judgments of experts. As a consequence, current approaches are often biased and prone to error. In order to reduce forecast errors, this paper presents an innovative methodology that extends lag variables with unstructured data in the form of financial news: (1) we apply a variety of models from machine learning to word counts as a high-dimensional input. However, this approach suffers from low interpretability and overfitting, motivating the following remedies. (2) We follow the intuition that the economic climate is driven by general sentiments and suggest a projection of words onto latent semantic structures as a means of feature engineering. (3) We propose a semantic path model, together with estimation technique based on regularization, in order to yield full interpretability of the forecasts. We demonstrate the predictive performance of our approach by utilizing 80,813 ad hoc announcements in order to make long-term forecasts of up to 24 months ahead regarding key macroeconomic indicators. Back-testing reveals a considerable reduction in forecast errors.

MSC:

91B84 Economic time series analysis
62P20 Applications of statistics to economics
91B64 Macroeconomic theory (monetary models, models of taxation)
91G70 Statistical methods; risk measures
62M20 Inference from stochastic processes and prediction

References:

[1] Aguirre-Urreta, M. I.; Marakas, G. M., Research note—partial least squares and models with formatively specified endogenous constructs: A cautionary note, Information Systems Research, 25, 4, 761-778, (2014)
[2] Akkoç, S., An empirical comparison of conventional techniques, neural networks and the three stage hybrid adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model for credit scoring analysis: the case of turkish credit card data, European Journal of Operational Research, 222, 1, 168-178, (2012)
[3] Allen, P. G.; Morzuch, B. J., Twenty-five years of progress, problems, and conflicting evidence in econometric forecasting: what about the next 25 years?, International Journal of Forecasting, 22, 3, 475-492, (2006)
[4] Aubert, B. A.; Rivard, S.; Patry, M., Development of measures to assess dimensions of is operation transactions, Omega, 24, 6, 661-680, (1996)
[5] Blanc, S. M.; Setzer, T., Analytical debiasing of corporate cash flow forecasts, European Journal of Operational Research, 243, 3, 1004-1015, (2015) · Zbl 1346.62102
[6] Bovi, M.; Cerqueti, R., Forecasting macroeconomic fundamentals in economic crises, Annals of Operations Research, 247, 2, 451-469, (2016) · Zbl 1357.90098
[7] Buckler, F.; Hennig-Thurau, T., Identifying hidden structures in marketing’s structural models through universal structure modeling, Marketing Journal of Research and Management, 4, 2, 49-68, (2008)
[8] Calabrese, R.; Degl’Innocenti, M.; Osmetti, S. A., The effectiveness of tarp-cpp on the us banking industry: A new copula-based approach, European Journal of Operational Research, 256, 3, 1029-1037, (2017) · Zbl 1395.91484
[9] Carriero, A.; Clark, T. E.; Marcellino, M., Bayesian VARs: specification choices and forecast accuracy, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30, 1, 46-73, (2015)
[10] Chun, H.; Keleş, S., Sparse partial least squares regression for simultaneous dimension reduction and variable selection, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series B), 72, 1, 3-25, (2010) · Zbl 1411.62184
[11] Demyanyk, Y.; Hasan, I., Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods, Omega, 38, 5, 315-324, (2010)
[12] Desai, V. S.; Crook, J. N.; Overstreet, G. A., A comparison of neural networks and linear scoring models in the credit union environment, European Journal of Operational Research, 95, 1, 24-37, (1996) · Zbl 0955.90506
[13] Dovern, J.; Weisser, J., Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: an empirical comparison for the G7, International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 2, 452-465, (2011)
[14] Du Jardin, P., Bankruptcy prediction using terminal failure processes, European Journal of Operational Research, 242, 1, 286-303, (2015) · Zbl 1341.91134
[15] European Central Bank, A guide to the eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projection exercises, (2016), European Central Bank Frankfurt am Main
[16] Fethi, M. D.; Pasiouras, F., Assessing bank efficiency and performance with operational research and artificial intelligence techniques: A survey, European Journal of Operational Research, 204, 2, 189-198, (2010) · Zbl 1178.90228
[17] Feuerriegel, S.; Prendinger, H., News-based trading strategies, Decision Support Systems, 90, 65-74, (2016)
[18] Geng, R.; Bose, I.; Chen, X., Prediction of financial distress: an empirical study of listed Chinese companies using data mining, European Journal of Operational Research, 241, 1, 236-247, (2015)
[19] de Gooijer, J. G.; Hyndman, R. J., 25 years of time series forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, 22, 3, 443-473, (2006)
[20] Goudie, A. W.; Meeks, G., The effects of macroeconomic developments on individual companies’ flows of funds, Omega, 10, 4, 361-371, (1982)
[21] Gutiérrez, E.; Lozano, S., A competing risks analysis of the duration of federal target funds rates, Computers & Operations Research, 39, 4, 785-791, (2012) · Zbl 1251.91064
[22] Hastie, T. J.; Tibshirani, R. J.; Friedman, J. H., The elements of statistical learning: data mining, inference, and prediction, Springer Series in Statistics, (2013), Springer New York, NY
[23] Huang, W.; Nakamori, Y.; Wang, S.-Y., Forecasting stock market movement direction with support vector machine, Computers & Operations Research, 32, 10, 2513-2522, (2005) · Zbl 1068.90077
[24] Huang, Y.; Kou, G.; Peng, Y., Nonlinear manifold learning for early warnings in financial markets, European Journal of Operational Research, 258, 2, 692-702, (2017) · Zbl 1395.91511
[25] Jansen, W. J.; Jin, X.; de Winter, J. M., Forecasting and nowcasting real gdp: comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, 32, 2, 411-436, (2016)
[26] Kraus, M.; Feuerriegel, S., Decision support from financial disclosures with deep neural networks and transfer learning, Decision Support Systems, 104, 38-48, (2017)
[27] Kuhn, M., Building predictive models in R using the caret package, Journal of Statistical Software, 28, 5, 1-26, (2008)
[28] Kung, L.-M.; Yu, S.-W., Prediction of index futures returns and the analysis of financial spillovers: A comparison between GARCH and the grey theorem, European Journal of Operational Research, 186, 3, 1184-1200, (2008) · Zbl 1134.91032
[29] Layton, A. P.; Smith, D. R., Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators, Journal of Macroeconomics, 29, 4, 855-875, (2007)
[30] Lê Cao, K.-A.; Rossouw, D.; Robert-Granié, C.; Besse, P., A sparse PLS for variable selection when integrating omics data, Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology, 7, 1, 35, (2008) · Zbl 1276.62061
[31] Lessmann, S.; Sung, M.-C.; Johnson, J. E.; Ma, T., A new methodology for generating and combining statistical forecasting models to enhance competitive event prediction, European Journal of Operational Research, 218, 1, 163-174, (2012) · Zbl 1244.62133
[32] Liang, D.; Lu, C.-C.; Tsai, C.-F.; Shih, G.-A., Financial ratios and corporate governance indicators in bankruptcy prediction: A comprehensive study, European Journal of Operational Research, 252, 2, 561-572, (2016)
[33] Litterman, R. B., Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions: five years of experience, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 4, 1, 25-38, (1986)
[34] Mahmoud, E.; Motwani, J.; Rice, G., Forecasting us exports: an illustration using time series and econometric models, Omega, 18, 4, 375-382, (1990)
[35] Matsypura, D.; Thompson, R.; Vasnev, A. L., Optimal selection of expert forecasts with integer programming, Omega, 78, 165-175, (2018)
[36] McIntosh, C. N.; Edwards, J. R.; Antonakis, J., Reflections on partial least squares path modeling, Organizational Research Methods, 17, 2, 210-251, (2014)
[37] McKee, T. E.; Lensberg, T., Genetic programming and rough sets: A hybrid approach to bankruptcy classification, European Journal of Operational Research, 138, 2, 436-451, (2002) · Zbl 1131.90465
[38] Mortenson, M. J.; Doherty, N. F.; Robinson, S., Operational research from taylorism to terabytes: A research agenda for the analytics age, European Journal of Operational Research, 241, 3, 583-595, (2015) · Zbl 1339.90007
[39] Mostard, J.; Teunter, R.; de Koster, R., Forecasting demand for single-period products: A case study in the apparel industry, European Journal of Operational Research, 211, 1, 139-147, (2011)
[40] Nassirtoussi, A. K.; Aghabozorgi, S.; Wah, T. Y.; Ngo, D. C.L., Text mining for market prediction: A systematic review, Expert Systems with Applications, 41, 16, 7653-7670, (2014)
[41] Oztekin, A.; Kizilaslan, R.; Freund, S.; Iseri, A., A data analytic approach to forecasting daily stock returns in an emerging market, European Journal of Operational Research, 253, 3, 697-710, (2016) · Zbl 1346.62110
[42] Oztekin, A.; Kong, Z. J.; Delen, D., Development of a structural equation modeling-based decision tree methodology for the analysis of lung transplantations, Decision Support Systems, 51, 1, 155-166, (2011)
[43] Rigdon, E. E.; Ringle, C. M.; Sarstedt, M., Structural modeling of heterogeneous data with partial least squares, Review of Marketing Research, 7, 255-296, (2010)
[44] Sermpinis, G.; Theofilatos, K.; Karathanasopoulos, A.; Georgopoulos, E. F.; Dunis, C., Forecasting foreign exchange rates with adaptive neural networks using radial-basis functions and particle swarm optimization, European Journal of Operational Research, 225, 3, 528-540, (2013) · Zbl 1292.91196
[45] Sevim, C.; Oztekin, A.; Bali, O.; Gumus, S.; Guresen, E., Developing an early warning system to predict currency crises, European Journal of Operational Research, 237, 3, 1095-1104, (2014)
[46] Shaik, S., Impact of liquidity risk on variations in efficiency and productivity: A panel gamma simulated maximum likelihood estimation, European Journal of Operational Research, 245, 2, 463-469, (2015) · Zbl 1346.62167
[47] Stock, J. H.; Watson, M. W., Macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20, 2, 147-162, (2002)
[48] Sun, L.; Shenoy, P. P., Using Bayesian networks for bankruptcy prediction: some methodological issues, European Journal of Operational Research, 180, 2, 738-753, (2007) · Zbl 1123.90305
[49] Tam, K. Y.; Kiang, M. Y., Managerial applications of neural networks: the case of bank failure predictions, Management Science, 38, 7, 926-947, (1992) · Zbl 0763.90062
[50] Tay, F. E.; Cao, L., Application of support vector machines in financial time series forecasting, Omega, 29, 4, 309-317, (2001)
[51] Tenenhaus, M.; Vinzi, V. E.; Chatelin, Y.-M.; Lauro, C., PLS path modeling, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 48, 1, 159-205, (2005) · Zbl 1429.62227
[52] Tsai, M.-F.; Wang, C.-J., On the risk prediction and analysis of soft information in finance reports, European Journal of Operational Research, 257, 1, 243-250, (2017) · Zbl 1395.91516
[53] Turkyilmaz, A.; Oztekin, A.; Zaim, S.; Fahrettin Demirel, O., Universal structure modeling approach to customer satisfaction index, Industrial Management & Data Systems, 113, 7, 932-949, (2013)
[54] Turkyilmaz, A.; Temizer, L.; Oztekin, A., A causal analytic approach to student satisfaction index modeling, Annals of Operations Research, 7, 7, 209, (2016)
[55] Xu, Y.; Pinedo, M.; Xue, M., Operational risk in financial services: A review and new research opportunities, Production and Operations Management, 26, 3, 426-445, (2017)
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.