×

Modeling and control of the public opinion: an agree-disagree opinion model. (English) Zbl 1466.91235

Summary: In this paper, we aim to investigate optimal control to a new mathematical model that describes agree-disagree opinions during polls, which we presented and analyzed in S. Bidah et al. [Int. J. Differ. Equ. 2020, Article ID 5051248, 14 p. (2020; Zbl 1469.91043)]. We first present the model and recall its different compartments. We formulate the optimal control problem by supplementing our model with a objective functional. Optimal control strategies are proposed to reduce the number of disagreeing people and the cost of interventions. We prove the existence of solutions to the control problem, we employ Pontryagin’s maximum principle to find the necessary conditions for the existence of the optimal controls, and Runge-Kutta forward-backward sweep numerical approximation method is used to solve the optimal control system, and we perform numerical simulations using various initial conditions and parameters to investigate several scenarios. Finally, a global sensitivity analysis is carried out based on the partial rank correlation coefficient method and the Latin hypercube sampling to study the influence of various parameters on the objective functional and to identify the most influential parameters.

MSC:

91D30 Social networks; opinion dynamics

Citations:

Zbl 1469.91043

References:

[1] Petty, R. E.; Wegener, D. T.; Fabrigar, L. R., Attitudes and attitude change, Annual Review of Psychology, 48, 1, 609-647 (1997) · doi:10.1146/annurev.psych.48.1.609
[2] Boudreau, C.; MacKenzie, S. A., Informing the electorate? how party cues and policy information affect public opinion about initiatives, American Journal of Political Science, 58, 1, 48-62 (2014) · doi:10.1111/ajps.12054
[3] Rosenstone, S. J.; Hansen, J., Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America (1993), New York, NY, USA: Macmillan Publishing Company, New York, NY, USA
[4] Lawrence, E.; De Vries, C.; Steenbergen, M.; Edwards, E., Mean voter representation and partisan constituency representation: do parties respond to the mean voter position or to their supporters?, Party Politics, 17, 3, 275-301 (2011) · doi:10.1177/1354068810372100
[5] Duffy, J.; Tavits, M., Beliefs and voting decisions: a test of the pivotal voter model, American Journal of Political Science, 52, 3, 603-618 (2008) · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00332.x
[6] Meffert, M. F.; Gschwend, T., Polls, coalition signals and strategic voting: an experimental investigation of perceptions and effects, European Journal of Political Research, 50, 5, 636-667 (2011) · doi:10.1111/j.1475-6765.2010.01986.x
[7] Morton, R. B.; Muller, D.; Page, L.; Torgler, B., Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: evidence from a natural experiment, European Economic Review, 77, 65-81 (2015) · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.03.012
[8] Pereira, M. M., Do parties respond strategically to opinion polls? Evidence from campaign statements, Electoral Studies, 59, 78-86 (2019) · doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2019.02.014
[9] Adamic, L. A.; Glance, N., The political blogosphere and the 2004 US election: divided they blog, Proceedings of the 3rd International Workshop on Link Discovery
[10] Conover, M.; Ratkiewicz, J.; Francisco, M.; GonÇalves, B.; Flammini, A.; Menczer, F., Political polarization on twitter, Proceedings of the 5th International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (ICWSM), AAAI
[11] Serra, G., Should We Expect Primary Elections to Create Polarization?: A Robust Median Voter Theorem with Rational Parties (2017), Abingdon, UK: Routledge, Abingdon, UK
[12] Olivares, G.; Cárdenas, J. P.; Losada, J. C.; Borondo, J., Opinion polarization during a dichotomous electoral process, Complexity, 2019 (2019) · doi:10.1155/2019/5854037
[13] Bidah, S.; Zakary, O.; Rachik, M., Stability and global sensitivity analysis for an agree-disagree model: partial rank correlation coefficient and Latin hypercube sampling methods, International Journal of Differential Equations, 2020 (2020) · Zbl 1469.91043 · doi:10.1155/2020/5051248
[14] Hamby, D. M., A comparison of sensitivity analysis techniques, Health Physics, 68, 2, 195-204 (1995) · doi:10.1097/00004032-199502000-00005
[15] Helton, J. C.; Davis, F. J.; Johnson, J. D., A comparison of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained with random and Latin hypercube sampling, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 89, 3, 305-330 (2005) · doi:10.1016/j.ress.2004.09.006
[16] Marino, S.; Hogue, I. B.; Ray, C. J.; Kirschner, D. E., A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 254, 1, 178-196 (2008) · Zbl 1400.92013 · doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.04.011
[17] Thiele, J. C.; Kurth, W.; Grimm, V., Facilitating parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis of agent-based models: a cookbook using NetLogo and R, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 17, 3, 11 (2014) · doi:10.18564/jasss.2503
[18] Pannell, D., Sensitivity analysis of normative economic models: theoretical framework and practical strategies, Agricultural Economics, 16, 2, 139-152 (1997) · doi:10.1016/s0169-5150(96)01217-0
[19] Bidah, S.; Zakary, O.; Rachik, M.; Ferjouchia, H., Mathematical modeling of public opinions: parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, and model uncertainty using an agree-disagree opinion model, Abstract and Applied Analysis, 2020 (2020) · Zbl 1474.91132 · doi:10.1155/2020/1837364
[20] Ginsberg, B., The Captive Public: How Mass Opinion Promotes State Power (1986), New York, NY, USA: Basic Books, New York, NY, USA
[21] Herbst, S., Numbered Voices: How Opinion Polling Has Shaped American Politics (1995), Chicago, IL, USA: University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, USA
[22] Fleming, W. H.; Rishel, R. W., Deterministic and Stochastic Optimal Control, 1 (2012), Berlin, Germany: Springer Science & Business Media, Berlin, Germany
[23] Pontryagin, L. S., Mathematical Theory of Optimal Processes (2018), Abingdon, UK: Routledge, Abingdon, UK
[24] Jung, E.; Lenhart, S.; Lenhart, S.; Feng, Z., Optimal control of treatments in a two-strain tuberculosis model, Discrete & Continuous Dynamical Systems—B, 2, 4, 473 (2002) · Zbl 1005.92018 · doi:10.3934/dcdsb.2002.2.473
[25] Lenhart, S.; Workman, J. T., Optimal Control Applied to Biological Models (2007), Boca Raton, FL, USA: CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, USA · Zbl 1291.92010
[26] Zakary, O.; Larrache, A.; Rachik, M.; Elmouki, I., Effect of awareness programs and travel-blocking operations in the control of HIV/AIDS outbreaks: a multi-domains SIR model, Advances in Difference Equations, 2016, 1, 169 (2016) · Zbl 1418.92065 · doi:10.1186/s13662-016-0900-9
[27] Zakary, O.; Rachik, M.; Elmouki, I., A multi-regional epidemic model for controlling the spread of Ebola: awareness, treatment, and travel-blocking optimal control approaches, Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, 40, 4, 1265-1279 (2017) · Zbl 1360.92123 · doi:10.1002/mma.4048
[28] Reuters Polling System. Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?, 2019, https://polling.reuters.com/
[29] McKay, M. D.; Beckman, R. J.; Conover, W. J., A comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code, Technometrics, 42, 1, 55-61 (2000) · doi:10.1080/00401706.2000.10485979
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.