×

Does risk aversion affect bank output loss? The case of the eurozone. (English) Zbl 1431.62484

Summary: We propose a new model to infer the evolution of bank-specific output losses due to the uncertainty in bank output prices. Losses are based on bank risk aversion with micro foundations tethered to the uncertainty regarding prices. Our model allows us to measure time-varying bank-specific output losses and risk aversion while taking into account all bank cross-sectional heterogeneity. We employ a panel data set to estimate the input and output elasticities with both parametric and non-parametric techniques. We are the first to document that increasing risk aversion among Eurozone banks during the financial crisis resulted in sizable output losses. Although subdued thereafter, losses have been resurging in recent years. Both conventional and unconventional monetary policy responses by the European Central Bank (ECB) mitigated uncertainty in bank output prices, though unequally so across countries. Certain measures of unconventional monetary policy may have even enhanced bank risk aversion and thereby output losses, but mainly so for large countries.

MSC:

62P05 Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics
91G45 Financial networks (including contagion, systemic risk, regulation)

References:

[1] Acharya, V. V.; Mora, N., A crisis of banks as liquidity providers, Journal of Finance, 70, 1, 1-43 (2015)
[2] Acharya, V. V.; Schnabl, P.; Suarez, G., Securitization without risk transfer, Journal of Financial Economics, 107, 3, 515-536 (2013)
[3] Adrian, T.; Brunnermeier, M. K., CoVaR, American Economic Review, 106, 7, 1705-1741 (2016)
[4] Aebi, V.; Sabato, G.; Schmid, M., Risk management, corporate governance, and bank performance in the financial crisis, Journal of Banking and Finance, 36, 12, 3213-3226 (2012)
[5] Aikman, D.; Haldane, A. G.; Nelson, B. D., Curbing the credit cycle, Economic Journal, 125, 585, 1072-1109 (2015)
[6] Akerlof, G. A., The market for “Lemons”: Quality uncertainty and the market mechanism, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84, 3, 488-500 (1970)
[7] Allen, F.; Jackowicz, K.; Kowalewski, O.; Kozłowski, Ł., Bank lending, crises, and changing ownership structure in central and eastern European countries, Journal of Corporate Finance, 42, 494-515 (2017)
[8] Altunbas, Y.; Liu, M.-H.; Molyneux, P.; Seth, R., Efficiency and risk in Japanese banking, Journal of Banking and Finance, 24, 10, 1605-1628 (2000)
[9] Appelbaum, E.; Ullah, A., Estimation of moments and production decisions under uncertainty, Review of Economics and Statistics, 79, 4, 631-637 (1997)
[10] Atkinson, S. E.; Dorfman, J. H., Bayesian measurement of productivity and efficiency in the presence of undesirable outputs: Crediting electric utilities for reducing air pollution, Journal of Econometrics, 126, 2, 445-468 (2005) · Zbl 1334.62205
[11] Badunenko, O.; Kumbhakar, S. C., Economies of scale, technical change and persistent and time-varying cost efficiency in Indian banking: Do ownership, regulation and heterogeneity matter, European Journal of Operational Research, 260, 2, 789-803 (2017)
[12] Barrell, R.; Davis, E. P.; Karim, D.; Liadze, I., Bank regulation, property prices and early warning systems for banking crises in OECD countries, Journal of Banking and Finance, 34, 9, 2255-2264 (2010)
[13] Basak, S.; Shapiro, A., Value-at-Risk-Based risk management: Optimal policies and asset prices, Review of Financial Studies, 14, 2, 371-405 (2001)
[14] Bauer, W.; Ryser, M., Risk management strategies for banks, Journal of Banking and Finance, 28, 2, 331-352 (2004)
[15] Beccalli, E.; Anolli, M.; Borello, G., Are European banks too big? evidence on economies of scale, Journal of Banking and Finance, 58, 232-246 (2015)
[16] Bekaert, G.; Hoerova, M.; Lo Duca, M., Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, 60, 7, 771-788 (2013)
[17] Benchimol, J., Risk aversion in the Eurozone, Research in Economics, 68, 1, 39-56 (2014)
[18] Berger, A. N.; DeYoung, R., Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks, Journal of Banking and Finance, 21, 6, 849-870 (1997)
[19] Berger, A. N.; El Ghoul, S.; Guedhami, O.; Roman, R. A., Internationalization and bank risk, Management Science, 63, 7, 2283-2301 (2017)
[20] Berger, A. N.; Humphrey, D. B., Efficiency of financial institutions: International survey and directions for future research, European Journal of Operational Research, 98, 175-212 (1997) · Zbl 0923.90018
[21] Bernanke, B. S., Modern risk management and banking supervision (2006), Stonier Graduate School of Banking: Stonier Graduate School of Banking Washington, D.C
[22] Billio, M.; Getmansky, M.; Lo, A. W.; Pelizzon, L., Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors, Journal of Financial Economics, 104, 3, 535-559 (2012)
[23] Borio, C.; Disyatat, F. P.; Juselius, M., Rethinking potential output: Embedding information about the financial cycle, Oxford Economic Papers, 69, 3, 655-677 (2017), [Working paper]
[24] Borio, C.; Zhu, H., Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism, Journal of Financial Stability, 8, 236-251 (2012), [Working paper]
[25] Brunnermeier, M. K., Deciphering the liquidity and credit crunch 2007-2008, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23, 1, 77-100 (2009)
[26] Cai, W.; Singham, D. I., A principal-agent problem with heterogeneous demand distributions for a carbon capture and storage system, European Journal of Operational Research, 264, 239-256 (2018) · Zbl 1380.91094
[27] Colliard, J.-E., Strategic selection of risk models and bank capital regulation, Management Science (2018), Forthcoming
[28] Cornett, M. M.; McNutt, J. J.; Strahan, P. E.; Tehranian, H., Liquidity risk, management and credit supply in the financial crisis, Journal of Financial Economics, 101, 2, 297-312 (2011)
[29] Daníelsson, J.; Jorgensen, B. N.; de Vries, C. G., Incentives for Effective risk management, Journal of Banking and Finance, 26, 7, 1407-1425 (2002)
[30] De Haas, R.; Van Horen, N., Running for the exit: International bank lending during a financial crisis. [Mimeo], Review of Financial Studies, 26, 1, 244-285 (2013)
[31] Decamps, J.-P.; Rochet, J.-C.; Roger, B.t., The three pillars of Basel II: Optimizing the mix, Journal of Financial Intermediation, 13, 2, 132-155 (2004)
[32] Delis, M. D.; Iosifidi, M.; Tsionas, M. G., Endogenous bank risk and efficiency, European Journal of Operational Research, 260, 1, 376-387 (2017) · Zbl 1402.91943
[33] Delis, M. D.; Staikouras, P. K.; Tsoumas, C., Formal enforcement actions and bank behavior, Management Science, 63, 4, 959-987 (2017)
[34] Diamond, D. W.; Dybvig, P. H., Bank runs, deposit insurance and liquidity, Journal of Political Economy, 91, 401-419 (1983) · Zbl 1341.91135
[35] Diamond, D. W.; Rajan, R. G., Liquidity shortages and banking crises, Journal of Finance, 60, 2, 615-647 (2005)
[36] Dong, Y.; Firth, M.; Hou, W.; Yang, W., Evaluating the performance of Chinese commercial banks: A comparative analysis of different types of banks, European Journal of Operational Research, 252, 1, 280-295 (2016)
[37] El-Shagi, M.; Knedlik, T.; von Schweinitz, G., Predicting financial crises: The (Statistical) significance of the signals approach, Journal of International Money and Finance, 35, 76-103 (2013)
[38] Elsinger, H.; Lehar, A.; Summer, M., Risk assessment for banking systems, Management Science, 52, 9, 1301-1314 (2006) · Zbl 1232.91689
[39] Fahlenbrach, R.; Stulz, R. M., Bank CEO incentives and the credit crisis, Journal of Financial Economics, 99, 1, 11-26 (2011)
[40] Fiordelisi, F.; Marques-Ibanez, D.; Molyneux, P., Efficiency and risk in European banking, Journal of Banking and Finance, 35, 5, 1315-1326 (2011)
[41] Freixas, X.; Parigi, B., Contagion and efficiency in gross and net interbank payment system, Journal of Financial Intermediation, 7, 3-31 (1998)
[42] Froot, K. A.; Stein, J. C., Risk management, capital budgeting, and capital structure policy for financial institutions: An integrated approach, Journal of Financial Economics, 47, 1, 55-82 (1998)
[43] Glass, A. J.; Kenjegalieva, K., A spatial productivity index in the presence of efficiency spillovers: Evidence for U.S. banks, 1992-2015, European Journal of Operational Research, 273, Issue 3, 1165-1179 (2019)
[44] Glasserman, P.; Kang, W., OR forum—Design of risk weights, Operations Research, 62, 6, 1204-1220 (2014) · Zbl 1342.91039
[45] Gorton, G.; Rosen, R., Corporate control, portfolio choice and the decline of banking, Journal of Finance, 50, 1377-1397 (1995)
[46] Gray, D. F.; Merton, R. C.; Bodie, Z., New framework for measuring and managing macrofinancial risk and financial stability (2007), National Bureau of Economic Research: National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, MA
[47] Hansen, L. P., Large sample properties of generalized method of moments estimators, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 50, 4, 1029-1054 (1982) · Zbl 0502.62098
[48] Hansen, L. P.; Heaton, J.; Yaron, A., Finite-Sample properties of some alternative GMM estimators, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 14, 3, 262-280 (1996)
[49] Havrylchyk, O., Efficiency of the polish banking industry: Foreign versus domestic banks, Journal of Banking and Finance, 30, 7, 1975-1996 (2006)
[50] Henderson, V.; Hobson, D., Risk aversion, indivisible timing options, and gambling, Operations Research, 61, 1, 126-137 (2013) · Zbl 1268.91165
[51] Hughes, J. P.; Mester, L. J.; Moon, C.-G., Are scale economies in banking elusive or illusive? Evidence obtained by incorporating capital structure and risk-taking into models of bank production, Journal of Banking and Finance, 25, 2169-2208 (2001)
[52] Ioannidou, V. P.; Ongena, S.; Peydró, J.-L., Monetary policy, risk-taking and pricing: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment, Review of Finance, 19, 1, 95-144 (2015)
[53] Ivashina, V.; Scharfstein, D. S., Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008, Journal of Financial Economics, 97, 3, 319-338 (2010)
[54] Jiménez, G.; Ongena, S.; Peydró, J.-L.; Saurina, J., Hazardous times for monetary policy: What do twenty-three million bank loans say about the effects of monetary policy on credit risk-taking?, Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society, 82, 2, 463-505 (2014) · Zbl 1419.91509
[55] Kim, D.; Santomero, A. M., Risk in banking and capital regulation, Journal of Finance, 43, 5, 1219-1233 (1988)
[56] Koutsomanoli-Filippaki, A.; Mamatzakis, E., Performance and Merton-type default risk of listed banks in the EU: A panel VAR approach, Journal of Banking and Finance, 33, 11, 2050-2061 (2009)
[57] Kuritzkes, A.; Schuermann, T.; Weiner, S. M., Deposit insurance and risk management of the U.S. banking system: What is the loss distribution faced by the FDIC?, Journal of Financial Services Research, 27, 3, 217-242 (2005)
[58] Lawrence, M.; Goodwin, P.; O’Connor, M.; Önkal, D., Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years, International Journal of Forecasting, 22, 3, 493-518 (2006)
[59] Lehar, A., Measuring systemic risk: A risk management approach, Journal of Banking and Finance, 29, 10, 2577-2603 (2005)
[60] Lehmann, P. A.; Hofmann, M. D., Lessons learned from the financial crisis for risk management: Contrasting developments in insurance and banking. [journal article], Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Issues and Practice, 35, 1, 63-78 (2010)
[61] Mamatzakis, E.; Tsionas, M. G.; Kumbhakar, S. C.; Koutsomanoli-Filippaki, A., Does labour regulation affect technical and allocative efficiency? Evidence from the banking industry, Journal of Banking and Finance, 61, S1, 84-98 (2015)
[62] Mohsni, S.; Otchere, I., Risk taking behavior of privatized banks, Journal of Corporate Finance, 29, 122-142 (2014)
[63] Quaranta, A. G.; Raffoni, A.; Visani, F., A multidimensional approach to measuring bank branch efficiency, European Journal of Operational Research, 266, 2, 746-760 (2018) · Zbl 1403.91392
[64] Rajamani, A.; Poel, M.v.d.; Jong, A.d.; Ongena, S., The international diversification of banks and the value of their cross-border M&A advice, Management Science, 63, 7, 2211-2232 (2017)
[65] Rajan, R. G., Has finance made the world riskier, European Financial Management, 12, 4, 499-533 (2006)
[66] Rochet, J. C.; Tirole, J., Interbank lending and systemic risk, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 28, 733-762 (1996)
[67] Santomero, A. M., Commercial bank risk management: An analysis of the process, Journal of Financial Services Research, 12, 2, 83-115 (1997)
[68] Schwarz, G. E., Estimating the dimensions of a model, The Annals of Statistics, 6, 2, 461-464 (1978) · Zbl 0379.62005
[69] Sealey, C. W.; Lindley, J. T., Inputs, outputs, and a theory of production and cost at depository financial institutions, Journal of Finance, 32, 4, 1251-1266 (1977)
[70] Segoviano Basurto, M. A.; Goodhart, C. A.E., Banking stability measures (2009), International Monetary Fund: International Monetary Fund Washington, DC
[71] Simar, L.; Wilson, P. W., Estimation and inference in two-stage, semi-parametric models of production processes, Journal of Econometrics, 136, 1, 31-64 (2007) · Zbl 1418.62535
[72] Singh, R. S.; Tracy, D. S., Strongly consistent estimators of kth order regression curves and rates of convergence, Zeitschrift fόr Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie Verwandte Gebiet, 40, 339-348 (1970) · Zbl 0377.62038
[73] Stiglitz, J. E.; Greenwald, B., Towards a new paradigm in monetary economics (2003), Cambridge University Press
[74] Stiglitz, J. E.; Weiss, A., Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information, American Economic Review, 71, 393-410 (1981)
[75] Stiroh, K. J., A portfolio view of banking with interest and noninterest activities, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 38, 5, 1351-1361 (2006)
[76] Stulz, R. M., Rethinking risk management, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 9, 3, 8-25 (1996)
[77] Szegö, G., Measures of risk, Journal of Banking and Finance, 26, 7, 1253-1272 (2002)
[78] Tarashev, N.; Borio, C.; Tsatsaronis, K., Attributing systemic risk to individual institutions (2010), Bank for International Settlements: Bank for International Settlements Basle
[79] Tsionas, M. G., Parameters measuring bank risk and their estimation, European Journal of Operational Research, 250, 1, 291-304 (2016) · Zbl 1346.62112
[80] Tsionas, M. G., Microfoundations for stochastic frontiers, European Journal of Operational Research, 258, 1165-1170 (2017) · Zbl 1394.90257
[81] Vallascas, F.; Mollah, S.; Keasey, K., Does the impact of board independence on large bank risks change after the global financial crisis?, Journal of Corporate Finance, 44, 149-166 (2017)
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.