×

On filling-in missing conditional probabilities in causal networks. (English) Zbl 1104.68107

Summary: This paper considers the problem and appropriateness of filling-in missing conditional probabilities in causal networks by the use of maximum entropy. Results generalizing earlier work of Rhodes, Garside & Holmes are proved straightforwardly by the direct application of principles satisfied by the maximum entropy inference process under the assumed uniqueness of the maximum entropy solution. It is however demonstrated that the implicit assumption of uniqueness in the Rhodes, Garside & Holmes papers may fail even in the case of inverted trees. An alternative approach to filling in missing values using the limiting centre of mass inference process is then described which does not suffer this shortcoming, is trivially computationally feasible and arguably enjoys more justification in the context when the probabilities are objective (for example derived from frequencies) than by taking maximum entropy values.

MSC:

68T37 Reasoning under uncertainty in the context of artificial intelligence
03B48 Probability and inductive logic
94A17 Measures of information, entropy
Full Text: DOI

References:

[1] DOI: 10.1016/S0950-7051(99)00002-7 · doi:10.1016/S0950-7051(99)00002-7
[2] DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1098-111X(199906)14:6<535::AID-INT1>3.0.CO;2-G · Zbl 0953.68130 · doi:10.1002/(SICI)1098-111X(199906)14:6<535::AID-INT1>3.0.CO;2-G
[3] D. E. Holmes, Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods, eds. W. van der Linden (Kluwer Academic Press, Dordrecht, Netherlands, 1999) pp. 289–300.
[4] Rhodes P. C., Knowledge-Based Systems 9 pp 315–
[5] Paris J. B., The Uncertain Reasoner’s Companion: A Mathematical Perspective (1994) · Zbl 0838.68104
[6] DOI: 10.1016/0888-613X(90)90020-3 · Zbl 0697.68089 · doi:10.1016/0888-613X(90)90020-3
[7] DOI: 10.1023/A:1005081609010 · Zbl 0931.68124 · doi:10.1023/A:1005081609010
[8] DOI: 10.1007/978-94-017-1586-7_9 · doi:10.1007/978-94-017-1586-7_9
[9] Lauritzen S. L., Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 50 pp 154–
[10] Pearl J., Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems. Networks of Plausible Inference (1988) · Zbl 0746.68089
[11] Shannon C. E., The Mathematical Theory of Communication (1948)
[12] DOI: 10.1016/0888-613X(89)90015-7 · Zbl 0709.94612 · doi:10.1016/0888-613X(89)90015-7
[13] DOI: 10.1007/978-94-017-1586-7_4 · doi:10.1007/978-94-017-1586-7_4
[14] Williamson J., Electronic Transactions of Artificial Intelligence 7
[15] DOI: 10.1023/A:1021128011190 · Zbl 1014.03025 · doi:10.1023/A:1021128011190
[16] Williamson J., Bayesian Nets and Causality: Philosophical and Computational Foundations (2005) · Zbl 1153.68503
[17] DOI: 10.1142/S0218488500000228 · Zbl 1113.68529 · doi:10.1142/S0218488500000228
[18] DOI: 10.1007/978-94-015-9648-0_7 · doi:10.1007/978-94-015-9648-0_7
[19] DOI: 10.1109/TSSC.1968.300117 · Zbl 0181.21901 · doi:10.1109/TSSC.1968.300117
[20] E. T. Jaynes, E. T. Jaynes: Papers on Probability, Statistics and Statistical Physics, ed. R. Rosenkrantz (D. Reidel Publishing, Dordrecht, 1983) pp. 317–366. · Zbl 0501.01026
[21] DOI: 10.1016/0888-613X(89)90012-1 · Zbl 0665.68079 · doi:10.1016/0888-613X(89)90012-1
[22] DOI: 10.1016/0888-613X(92)90022-R · Zbl 0779.68086 · doi:10.1016/0888-613X(92)90022-R
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.