×

Cointegration for periodically integrated processes. (English) Zbl 1280.62111

Summary: Integration for seasonal time series can take the form of seasonal periodic or nonperiodic integration. When seasonal time series are periodically integrated, we show that any cointegration is either full periodic cointegration or full nonperiodic cointegration, with no possibility of cointegration applying for only some seasons. In contrast, seasonally integrated series can be seasonally, periodically or nonperiodically cointegrated, with the possibility of cointegration applying for a subset of seasons. Cointegration tests are analyzed for periodically integrated series. A residual-based test is examined, and its asymptotic distribution is derived under the null hypothesis of no cointegration. A Monte Carlo analysis shows good performance in terms of size and power. The role of deterministic terms in the cointegrating test regression is also investigated. Further, we show that the asymptotic distribution of the error-correction test for periodic cointegration derived by H. P. Boswijk and P. H. Franses [“Periodic cointegration: representation and inference”, Rev. Econ. Stat. 77, No. 3, 436–454 (1995), http://www.jstor.org/stable/2109906] does not apply for periodically integrated processes.

MSC:

62M10 Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH)
62M07 Non-Markovian processes: hypothesis testing
62P20 Applications of statistics to economics
65C05 Monte Carlo methods
Full Text: DOI

References:

[1] DOI: 10.1016/0304-4076(91)90069-P · Zbl 0725.62100 · doi:10.1016/0304-4076(91)90069-P
[2] DOI: 10.1080/07474939908800446 · Zbl 1063.62575 · doi:10.1080/07474939908800446
[3] DOI: 10.1016/0304-4076(93)01563-2 · Zbl 0825.62679 · doi:10.1016/0304-4076(93)01563-2
[4] DOI: 10.1016/0165-1765(93)90102-I · Zbl 0800.90219 · doi:10.1016/0165-1765(93)90102-I
[5] DOI: 10.1016/0304-4076(93)90016-X · Zbl 0761.62164 · doi:10.1016/0304-4076(93)90016-X
[6] DOI: 10.2307/1913236 · Zbl 0613.62140 · doi:10.2307/1913236
[7] DOI: 10.1111/1468-0084.00231 · doi:10.1111/1468-0084.00231
[8] Boswijk, Journal of Time Series Analysis 17 pp 221– (1996)
[9] DOI: 10.2307/2109906 · doi:10.2307/2109906
[10] DOI: 10.1016/0304-4076(93)01560-9 · Zbl 0807.62088 · doi:10.1016/0304-4076(93)01560-9
[11] DOI: 10.2307/2233774 · doi:10.2307/2233774
[12] DOI: 10.1016/0304-4076(92)90098-C · Zbl 0757.62058 · doi:10.1016/0304-4076(92)90098-C
[13] DOI: 10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00035-9 · doi:10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00035-9
[14] DOI: 10.1016/0304-4076(90)90080-D · Zbl 0709.62102 · doi:10.1016/0304-4076(90)90080-D
[15] DOI: 10.1016/0304-4076(92)90081-2 · Zbl 0746.62105 · doi:10.1016/0304-4076(92)90081-2
[16] DOI: 10.1198/073500106000000459 · doi:10.1198/073500106000000459
[17] DOI: 10.1002/asm.3150110206 · Zbl 0822.62099 · doi:10.1002/asm.3150110206
[18] DOI: 10.1080/07474939508800313 · Zbl 0825.62674 · doi:10.1080/07474939508800313
[19] DOI: 10.2307/2938339 · Zbl 0733.62100 · doi:10.2307/2938339
[20] DOI: 10.2307/2297602 · Zbl 0599.62103 · doi:10.2307/2297602
[21] DOI: 10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00085-1 · doi:10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00085-1
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.