×

Compartmental limit of discrete Bass models on networks. (English) Zbl 1512.91096

Summary: We introduce a new method for proving convergence and rate of convergence of discrete Bass models on various networks to their respective compartmental Bass models, as the population size \(M\) becomes infinite. In this method, the master equations are reduced to a smaller system of equations, which is closed and exact. The reduced system is embedded into an infinite system, whose convergence to the infinite limit system is proved using standard ODE estimates. Finally, an exact ansatz reduces the infinite limit system to the compartmental model.
Using this method, we show that when the network is complete and homogeneous, the discrete Bass model converges to the original 1969 compartmental Bass model, at the rate of \(1/M\). When the network is circular, the compartmental limit is different, and the convergence rate is exponential in \(M\). For a heterogeneous network that consists of \(K\) homogeneous groups, the limit is given by a heterogeneous compartmental Bass model, and the convergence rate is \(1/M\). Using this compartmental model, we show that when the heterogeneity in the external and internal influence parameters among the \(K\) groups is positively monotonically related, heterogeneity slows down the diffusion.

MSC:

91D30 Social networks; opinion dynamics
34E10 Perturbations, asymptotics of solutions to ordinary differential equations

References:

[1] R. H. A. Albert Jeong Barabási, Error and attack tolerance of complex networks, Nature, 406, 378-382 (2000)
[2] R. R. Anderson May, Infectious Diseases of Humans (1992)
[3] B. E. Armbruster Beck, An elementary proof of convergence to the mean-field equations for an epidemic model, IMA Journal of Applied Mathematics, 82, 152-157 (2017) · Zbl 1401.60172 · doi:10.1093/imamat/hxw010
[4] B. E. Armbruster Beck, Elementary proof of convergence to the mean-field model for the SIR process, J. Math. Biol., 75, 327-339 (2017) · Zbl 1403.92284 · doi:10.1007/s00285-016-1086-1
[5] F. Bass, A new product growth model for consumer durables, Management Sci., 15, 1215-1227 (1969)
[6] C. Y. V. Bulte Joshi, New product diffusion with influentials and imitators, Marketing Science, 26, 400-421 (2007)
[7] R. J. Chatterjee Eliashberg, The innovation diffusion process in a heterogeneous population: A micromodeling approach, Management Science, 36, 1057-1079 (1990)
[8] G. De Tarde, The laws of imitation, (H. Holt, 1903).
[9] O. Diekmann and J. A. P. Heesterbeek, Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation, John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, 2000.
[10] S. N. Ethier and T. G. Kurtz, Markov Processes: Characterization and Convergence, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, 1986. · Zbl 0592.60049
[11] G. Fibich, Bass-SIR model for diffusion of new products in social networks, Phys. Rev. E, 94, 032305 (2016) · doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.94.032305
[12] G. Fibich, Diffusion of new products with recovering consumers, SIAM J. Appl. Math., 77, 1230-1247 (2017) · Zbl 1378.91103 · doi:10.1137/17M1112546
[13] G. Fibich and A. Golan, Diffusion of new products with heterogeneous consumers, Mathematics of Operations Research. · Zbl 1533.91280
[14] G. R. Fibich Gibori, Aggregate diffusion dynamics in agent-based models with a spatial structure, Oper. Res., 58, 1450-1468 (2010) · Zbl 1233.90202 · doi:10.1287/opre.1100.0818
[15] G. T. O. Fibich Levin Yakir, Boundary effects in the discrete Bass model, SIAM J. Appl. Math., 79, 914-937 (2019) · Zbl 1422.91445 · doi:10.1137/18M1163646
[16] E. W. J. Hopp, Ten most influential papers of management science’s first fifty years, Management Sci., 50, 1763-1893 (2004)
[17] M. Jackson, Social and Economic Networks (2008) · Zbl 1149.91051
[18] T. G. Kurtz, Solutions of ordinary differential equations as limits of pure jump Markov processes, Journal of Applied Probability, 7, 49-58 (1970) · Zbl 0191.47301 · doi:10.2307/3212147
[19] T. G. Kurtz, Limit theorems for sequences of jump Markov processes approximating ordinary differential processes, Journal of Applied Probability, 8, 344-356 (1971) · Zbl 0219.60060 · doi:10.2307/3211904
[20] V. Mahajan, E. Muller and F. Bass, New-product diffusion models, in, Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science, eds. J. Eliashberg and G. Lilien (North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1993), 5 (1993), 349-408. · Zbl 0898.90001
[21] S. Niu, A stochastic formulation of the Bass model of new product diffusion, Math. Problems Engrg., 8, 249-263 (2002) · Zbl 1062.90518 · doi:10.1080/10241230215285
[22] R. A. Pastor-Satorras Vespignani, Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks,, Phys. Rev. Lett., 86, 3200-3203 (2001) · doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.86.3200
[23] E. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press, New York, 2003, fifth edition.
[24] P. I. Simon Kiss, From exact stochastic to mean-field ODE models: A new approach to prove convergence results, IMA J. Appl. Math., 78, 945-964 (2013) · Zbl 1297.60041 · doi:10.1093/imamat/hxs001
[25] P. M. I. Simon Taylor Kiss, Exact epidemic models on graphs using graph-automorphism driven lumping, J. Math. Biol., 62, 479-508 (2011) · Zbl 1232.92068 · doi:10.1007/s00285-010-0344-x
[26] D. S. Strang Soule, Diffusion in organizations and social movements: From hybrid corn to poison pills, Annu. Rev. Sociol., 24, 265-290 (1998) · doi:10.1146/annurev.soc.24.1.265
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.